Splitsville: Holding out for a hero

Let’s start Splitsville this week with a look at the top scorers of Week 15 last year, mostly to prepare ourselves for how cruelly random our game can be. Source for this is Pro-Football-Reference’s excellent player-finder database, well worth a subscription.

Top five Week 15, 2013 QBs: Nick Foles, Alex Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel and Matt Flynn.

Top five RBs: Jamaal Charles, Matt Asiata, Eddie Lacy, DeAngelo Williams, Rashad Jennings

Top five WRs: DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Dez Bryant, Pierre Garcon, Julian Edelman, Andre Caldwell

[Join FanDuel.com's $2M Week 15 fantasy league: $25 to enter; top 17,475 teams paid]

So some crazy players may end up being on the Week 15 Hero list this year. You know the candidates, guys like Johnny Manziel, Derek Anderson, Jake Locker, Marquess Wilson, Kerwynn Williams, Latavius Murray, Harry Douglas…. Who knows? Anyone who is starting is dangerous in any given week.

Again, forget about “fantasy points vs. position X” stats to pick your lineups. They’re too touchdown driven and touchdowns are random. The rate stats are way better if you want to increase your odds in breaking ties for your starting lineup.

You can fish for yourself here at PFR, but I will summarize below. The only stats we care about are yards allowed per pass attempt (Y/A under “Passing Defense”) and yards allowed per rush (Y/A under “Team Defense”).

Before the last Raiders game, I said in this column that the Chiefs were a team to go up against because they were near the bottom in the yards allowed per rush category. I honestly had no idea they hadn’t given up a rushing TD and would not have cared if I knew since that was obviously a fluke. And Murray ended up with two rushing TDs before your recliner was warm.

This week, go back to the well with Murray as the Chiefs are dead last in yards allowed per rush, followed by the Giants (Week 15 opponent Redskins), Saints (Bears), Dolphins (Patriots) and Browns (Bengals).

The toughest run defenses according to yards per rush are the Lions (Vikings), Jets (Titans), Broncos (Chargers), Seahawks (49ers) and Ravens (Jaguars).

For passing game matchups, which not only cover QBs but also WRs and TEs, we consult YPA allowed. I’m not a fan of breaking down pass defense into how teams defend TEs. Bad pass defense is just bad and the offensive team can choose how to exploit that badness in their own way. Tight ends are even that on most plays — they’re slot receivers.

[Week 15 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]

So the worst pass defenses according to those yardage rate stats are Redskins (Week 15 opponent Giants), Falcons (Steelers), Bears (Saints), Steelers (Falcons) and Giants (Redskins).

Toughest pass defenses: Broncos (Chargers, but of course you could get high volume), Dolphins (Patriots), Browns (Bengals), Chiefs (Raiders), Seahawks (49ers).

So the takeaway here is to play guys like Murray, Alfred Morris, LeGarrette Blount, and you want to play either Bengals back if you have one.

You want to bench Frank Gore.

I can’t mention all the players involved in the passing game stats but you know your own guys. Martavis Bryant is a player to start this week irrespective of his 94-yard TD in Week 14. Of course, Wilson could be huge even though we know little about him other than him looking the part (big and fast). If Julio Jones is out, Harry Douglas could easily be a winning play. You want to play Pierre Garcon this week no matter who is at QB for Washington.

Some NFL notes:

Teams are averaging 703 yards per game, a record, up from 672 (combined) in 2010.

But four teams are averaging over 400 per game: IND (432.4), PIT (427), NO (421), DEN (405.6). This many teams over 400 yards would be a record, too, besting the three in recent years.

Larry Fitzgerald, who looks just about done to me, is one TD short of becoming 10h player in history with 12,000 yards and 90 TDs.

Antonio Brown, aka the exception to the short-receiver rule, will, with five catches, become the fourth player in league history with consecutive 110-catch seasons (Wes Welker twice, Chris Carter, Jerry Rice). Yep, I will definitely prefer Dez Bryant at his ADP next year versus Brown at his. If you guys take to the comments and use this to say I’m saying Bryant over Brown, period, I’ll break stuff.

With a TD by Kelvin Benjamin, the NFL would have two rookie wideouts with double-digit receiving TDs for the first time (he’ll join Mike Evans). But Mike Williams and Rob Gronkowski (a tight end, obviously) did it in 2010.

Le’Veon Bell will set a record on Sunday if he can go over 200 scrimmage yards (vs. Atlanta, so he has a great chance) for the fourth-straight game. He and Walter Payton (1977) have done it in three-straight games.