Splitsville: Dealing with defenses

In Splitsville this week, we’re going to break down the defenses to help us determine which of our offensive players to start.

There are seven weeks in the books and we have enough of a sample now to bet on these statistics in making roster decisions.

Offenses generally control outcomes. One game never means anything by itself but, just for illustration purposes,, consider the Cowboys vs. Seahawks where the strength of the Seattle defense didn’t matter, even in the running game, because the Dallas offense dictated that day. So do not go overboard with this information and bench a No. 1 receiver with a bad matchup in favor of a borderline starter with a great one. This guidance is for breaking ties between similarly tiered players.

I prefer these all-encompassing numbers to the statistics that break down defenses by how they fare against against tight ends, wide receivers, running backs and QBs. For example, what if a defense is giving up points to running backs as receivers but your back is not a pass-catcher? But more broadly, I try to get the biggest samples that capture the most relevant information and I want to break this up into as few buckets as possible, thus my two: “vs. pass” and “vs. run.”

We have to sort by one, though, and I picked passing because more players are impacted. But you can see the corresponding run numbers. And I summarize the “vs. run” leaders and trailers below the chart.

The formula for passing points per game is standard fantasy: yards divided by 10, TD passes times four and subtracting picks times two. While the number is mostly from the perspective of quarterback scoring, it can easily be extrapolated for the players on the other end of the passes. For rushing. it’s just yards divided by 10 and TDs time six, nothing complicated there and remember QB rushing is folded into rushing (because who cares if the defense is susceptible to QB rushing if your QB doesn’t run). The numbers for fantasy points per game are inflated because they capture every yard fully.

NOTE: These stats ARE IN NO WAY a ranking of defenses for fantasy purposes. As I say repeatedly, you’re best off streaming defenses and picking the available ones that are facing the offenses that are worst at protecting their quarterbacks. Consider that about a third of sacks result in a fumble (not necessarily a recovery) and pressure also leads to ill-timed and hurried passes that are more pick prone.

To summarize vs. run, the friendliest defense/best matchups are, in order, the Falcons, Browns, Packers, Bengals, Panthers and Raiders. Those are the teams you are happiest to play your backs against. The toughest run defenses in the fantasy game to date, meaning stingiest in allowing fantasy rushing points, are (toughest first) Bills, Lions, Jets, Cardinals, Ravens and Seahawks.