Yahoo Sports South Carolina football facing worst point spread of the season vs. No. 7 Alabama
It’s not easy to win at Alabama.
Even after the Crimson Tide are coming off a loss to Vanderbilt.
That’s reflected in betting odds this week for the South Carolina football team, which is facing its largest point spread of the season (by far) heading into this Saturday’s game in Tuscaloosa.
No. 7 Alabama opened as a 21.5-point betting favorite against South Carolina last Sunday, and that line’s holding steady at Alabama -21 as of Wednesday afternoon, according to the VegasInsider.com consensus line.
The three-touchdown spread is USC’s worst of the season, and the fourth straight SEC game in which the Gamecocks have been an underdog (two home, two road).
Bettors are confident that Alabama will lay it on: As of Thursday, 78% of those placing bets against the spread are picking the Crimson Tide to cover and rout the Gamecocks by more than 21 points on Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, per VegasInsider. For bets against the spread (ATS), 68% of the money is on Alabama, too.
South Carolina’s largest point spread of the season before this one came last weekend, when USC closed as a 10-point home underdog to No. 12 Ole Miss and lost 27-3. The Gamecocks were also a 9.5-point road underog to Kentucky and 6.5-point home underdog to LSU earlier this season.
Coach Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks enter their first road game at Alabama since 2009 having lost two of three games to LSU and Ole Miss after a 2-0 start that had them on the verge of an AP Top 25 ranking.
Now, though, USC faces a tall task: Defeating reigning SEC champion Alabama and quarterback Jalen Milroe on their home turf. Coach Kalen DeBoer’s team is 3-0 at home this season, including an upset of then-No. 1 Georgia on Sept. 28.
South Carolina is 1-8 all-time in games at Alabama and last won there in 2004, when Lou Holtz was coaching and Mike Shula (the guy before Nick Saban) was coaching at Alabama. The Gamecocks have also lost seven straight to ranked opponents.
That’s led to a large point spread, even following Alabama’s 40-35 upset loss at Vanderbilt last weekend that dropped the Crimson Tide from No. 1 to No. 7 in this week’s AP poll.
No major sportsbook is offering a line closer than Alabama -21. A few, including BetMGM, FanDuel and Bally Bet, are still offering Alabama -21.5 (a four-touchdown spread, as Alabama would need to win by 22 or more to cover).
One silver lining: Although South Carolina is 2-15 when it’s a betting underdog of 21 or more points since 1997 (per Odds Shark data), Beamer is responsible for one of those wins. And it came in an SEC game.
USC upset then-No. 5 Tennessee in Columbia, 63-38, at the end of the 2022 season despite going into the game as a 22.5-point home underdog.
South Carolina’s other win in such circumstances: 2019, when Will Muschamp’s unranked USC squad upset No. 3 Georgia in overtime on the road in Athens.
Despite having just an 11% winning percentage in games as an underdog of 21-plus points over the last 27 years, South Carolina has been more successful in covering.
USC is 11-6 against the spread in those games and has covered in three of its last four games as an underdog of at least 21 points.
USC-Alabama is set for a noon kickoff on ABC with Joe Tessitore (play by play), Jesse Palmer (analyst) and Katie Georgia (sideline) on the call.
USC’s recent history as a big underdog
Last five games as an underdog of at least 21 points, per Odds Shark
Sept. 16, 2023: South Carolina at No. 1 Georgia (-26.5); Georgia won 24-14 but South Carolina (-10) covered the spread
Nov. 19, 2022: No. 5 Tennessee (-22.5) at South Carolina; South Carolina won 63-38 and covered the spread (+25)
Sept. 17, 2022: No. 1 Georgia (-25) at South Carolina; Georgia won 48-7 and covered the spread (+41)
Sept. 18, 2021: South Carolina at No. 2 Georgia (-31.5); Georgia won 40-13 but South Carolina (-27) covered the spread
November 2020: No. 9 Georgia (-22) at South Carolina; Georgia won 45-16 and covered the spread (+29)
