Yahoo Sports Sophomore Slump Watch: Bedard, Fantilli And More At Risk Of Taking A Step Back
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The sophomore slump is real.
Whether it’s increased responsibility, unrealistic expectations or struggling to replicate a small sample size, second-year NHLers are always fighting the pressures of slumping. As noted several times below, most of these players will likely bounce back just fine. Ask Nathan MacKinnon, Mathew Barzal, Clayton Keller or Yanni Gourde. Bad puck luck, diminished team support and playing different roles on the depth chart are all factors here.
Here’s five sophomore players who’ve struggled to match their 2023-24 outputs:
Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets center impressed in his first 49 NHL games, scoring 12 goals and 27 points before a calf laceration cut his rookie season short.
Now healthy, Fantilli has struggled this campaign on an equally bad Columbus team. While he’s on a disappointing 35-point pace over 82 games, it’s what’s happening under the hood that’s more telling.
He’s regressed in just about every statistical category, including a fall from 2.1 points per 60 minutes to 1.45. He’s also coughing up the puck at an accelerated rate, already more than doubling his giveaway total from last season, with many coming in his own end. Add it all up and his abysmal 42.1 percent goals share makes more sense.
While his shooting percentage is a tad below where it was, Fantilli’s volume has declined as well. If he can fire the puck more, the 2023 third-overall pick could at least salvage his offensive stat line, but probably not the Blue Jackets’ season.
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes wound up using five goalies in 2023-24. Still, Kochetkov was a revelation when the injury-prone Frederik Andersen went down early in the season with a blood clotting issue. Grabbing the starter’s role, Kochetkov recorded a 2.33 goals-against average and .911 save percentage in 42 appearances, finishing fourth in Calder Trophy voting.
This season, it’s the same situation, with Andersen recovering from knee surgery, but Kochetkov has struggled to hold down the fort like he did before, sporting a 2.43 GAA and .903 SP in 21 games. Thankfully, the Hurricanes have managed to smooth over any goaltending inconsistencies, sporting a 21-12-1 record.
It’s a relatively small sample and he’s only a hot streak away from bouncing back to last year’s marks, but Andersen's return from injury would be welcome to stabilize the crease and provide more mentorship opportunities for Kochetkov.
Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks thought they’d be better than this, and many people thought the same about the reigning Calder Trophy winner. Bedard has perhaps unfairly been put on a pedestal among the likes of former first-overall picks Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid in terms of his expected trajectory, but a regression instead of a leap forward is surprising for most.
He’s producing just slightly less per game than last season, and part of the explanation is a simple decrease in puck luck. He’s still shooting at a high enough volume, so expect a shooter as skilled as him to start finding the back of the net sooner or later.
Adding to the pressure on Bedard is the sensational performance of 2024 first-overall pick Macklin Celebrini, who’s currently hovering at a point-per-game clip. However, if anyone has the potential to break out in a big way and put the naysayers to rest, it’s Bedard.
Luke Evangelista, RW, Nashville Predators
Aside from Juuse Saros, just about everything that could’ve gone wrong for Nashville has in this lost season. That includes Evangelista, whose drop-off is actually among the least severe relative to big guns Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault and Ryan O’Reilly. Still, the 22-year-old amassed 39 points in 80 games last season, making his current 14 points in 33 games mildly disappointing for the offense-starved Predators.
He was a prolific scorer in junior and highly productive in his short AHL stint, so it’s not unreasonable to believe there’s more untapped potential here. Part of the problem is his 6.2 percent shooting rate, which pales in comparison to last year’s 9.3 percent. He’s also experienced a sharp reduction in his on-ice goals percentage, although his expected rate remains high.
It’s entirely possible Evangelista’s sluggish start has more to do with Nashville’s abysmal start and his frequent linemates Mark Jankowski and Tommy Novak, who are off to even worse starts.
Related: Montreal Canadiens And Nashville Predators Swap Defensemen
Tyson Foerster, RW, Philadelphia Flyers
Last season, Foerster scored 20 goals, no easy feat for a rookie. He also gained the favor of Flyers head coach John Tortorella, who boldly compared the young right winger to Rangers superstar Artemi Panarin.
This season, he has 9 goals and 16 points in 34 games. His 5.6 expected goals are behind Ilya Mikheyev, William Carrier, Michael Amadio and Mason Appleton, who have one 20-goal season between them. That’s not superstar play.
While it’s unreasonable to take too much stock in such comparisons, Foerster has been a diminished offensive threat this season. His shooting percentage has held steady but his volume has fallen drastically. Not only that, but he’s also been somewhat disappointing in his minutes, posting a 46 percent on-ice goals rate, compared to a 47.7 percent off-ice rate.
Foerster was an analytics darling last season and proved he could be part of the solution in Philadelphia. That simply hasn’t been the case this season, but there’s reason to believe it’s just the sophomore slump and nothing more.
Related: Sutter-In-Law: How The Flyers' Travis Konecny Embodies The Iconic Hockey Family
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