Can slumping TCU football still make a bowl game? It will be tough. Our analysis

After Friday’s upset loss to Houston, it’s understandable if it feels like the TCU football season is over.

But with six games remaining on the schedule, the 3-3 Horned Frogs still have a chance to turn things around.

The odds of making it to the Big 12 championship game are extremely slim with two conference losses, but making a bowl game would be enough to calm the brewing angst among the fanbase and give head coach Sonny Dykes some much needed momentum on the field headed into a pivotal fourth season.

The biggest problem TCU faces is that the schedule is backloaded. Of the six teams the Horned Frogs will face, three of them have spent some time ranked in the top-25. Two more are in-state rivals and those are games where you can throw records out.

And finally the season finale is on the road against an improved Cincinnati team that is also contending for a bowl berth. The road to a bowl game is much harder after TCU’s shortcomings, but this is the path the team has made. Here’s how they can navigate it.

At Utah, Oct. 19

Breakdown: This was always viewed as the toughest game on TCU’s schedule and that’s before the Horned Frogs lost three of their last four games. The Utes have transitioned nicely to the Big 12 despite dealing with another lengthy injury to quarterback Cam Rising. Rising has played in just two games this season and he could be close to coming back, but it’s unclear if he’ll be back for TCU.

The Horned Frogs best opportunity to pull off an upset is if Rising doesn’t play and the Utes continue to lean on Isaac Wilson. Wilson has struggled this season with six touchdowns to seven interceptions. With Wilson at the helm, Arizona was able to snap Utah’s lengthy home winning streak against ranked opponents.

Biggest question: Will it matter who starts at quarterback for Utah? The Utes are averaging more than 180 yards on the ground and TCU has struggled against run heavy teams.

Vs. Texas Tech, Oct. 26

Breakdown: Depending on the results against Utah, this rivalry game could easily be a must win for the Horned Frogs. The Red Raiders started the season slow with a near upset to Abilene Christian and falling to Washington State at home by 21 points. Since then, the Red Raiders have won three straight including an impressive win at Arizona on Oct. 5. Behren Morton is having an excellent season with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions while Tahj Brooks has looked like the best running back in the league with 679 yards rushing.

Biggest question: Can TCU’s offense keep the Horned Frogs in the game? The Red Raiders are allowing 32.3 points per game including 41 to Cincinnati and 51 to Abilene Christian. TCU may need to score at least 35 to have a chance.

At Baylor, Nov. 2

Breakdown: It’ll be interesting to see the crowd size when these two rivals meet with both going through underwhelming seasons. Baylor coach Dave Aranda could be coaching one of his final games while Dykes will look to add a win over the Bears to keep the pressure off of himself. This is TCU’s best shot at a victory as Baylor has been without touted quarterback transfer DeQuan Finn the last four games. Sawyer Robertson has filled in and has been ok with a 59.2% completion rate and nine touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Bears lack an explosive offense, which should be a relief for the TCU defense.

Biggest question: How hard will TCU play? It’s a fair question after Dykes said that Houston was the more excited and hungrier team last week. The Horned Frogs should have ample motivation against a rival though right?

Vs. Oklahoma State, Nov. 9

Breakdown: This game is not as daunting as originally anticipated in the preseason. The Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments in the country, falling from the Big 12 title game to just 3-3 and 0-3 in league play. Oklahoma State is lucky to not be 2-4 after Arkansas blew multiple chances in Stillwater. Despite returning many of its starting receivers and star running back Ollie Gordon, the Cowboys’ offense has been a shell of its former self.

Gordan is averaging less than four yards per carry and Alan Bowman continues to struggle with turnovers with eight interceptions and a 59.3% completion rate. The defense also remains one of the worst in the Big 12, allowing just under 28 points per game.

Biggest question: Can TCU stop a breakout Gordon performance? Gordon hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since the season opener vs. South Dakota State. Will TCU’s run defense be able to hold him under that number?

Vs. Arizona, Nov. 23

Breakdown: The Horned Frogs will have a bye week after facing the Cowboys, which comes at an ideal time. TCU will be able to reset and recharge for a pivotal two game starting with the Wildcats. Arizona has taken a step back after watching former coach Jedd Fisch take the Washington job this off-season Fisch took a number of Arizona players with him as well. The Wildcats did upset Utah on the road and still have one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Noah Fifita. Fifita’s problem has been turnovers with six interceptions and just seven touchdowns. He only threw six last season.

The Wildcats had a solid defense last season that ranked near the top-25 in scoring defense, but the unit has also taken a step back this year with Arizona currently ranking No. 66 in scoring defense. It’s another winnable game on paper.

Biggest question: How will TCU stop Tetairoa McMillan? McMillan could be the first receiver taken in the NFL Draft with his impressive size and ability to make plays after the catch. McMillan already has 664 yards on the season. He’ll be the best receiver TCU faces this season and a banged up secondary could have its hands full.

At Cincinnati, Nov. 30

Breakdown: The Bearcats have taken a step forward in their second season in the Big 12 as Cincinnati has already matched its win total from last season (3). The Bearcats are getting quality quarterback play from Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby as he’s thrown 12 touchdowns, one interception and close to 1,500 yards. The Bearcats have balanced too, with a nice duo in the backfield with Corey Kiner and Evan Pryor.

Cincinnati’s scoring defense was 102nd last season, but the Bearcats are now in the top-50. The Bearcats are four points away from being 5-0 and could be the most improved team in the league.

Biggest question: What will TCU be playing for? The Horned Frogs could easily enter this game 5-6, needing a win to make the postseason. Will TCU play motivated in that scenario or will we see players start to mail it in and get ready for a hectic transfer portal season?