Serie A preview: Parma vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan play their second game of the Serie A season on Saturday evening against Parma at the Stadio Ennio Tardini, hoping to get their first win under Paulo Fonseca.

After an excellent preseason, Milan were the big favourites heading into the game against Torino at San Siro last Saturday night, but they were forced to battle from two goals behind to eventually earn a last-gasp 2-2 draw.

Fonseca once again stated in his pre-match press conference that his Milan side are a work in progress and that in his eyes a team is never complete, while also giving some team news.

Game date: Saturday, August 24
Kick-off time: 18:30 (CEST)
Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini
Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi (VAR: Marini)

Team news

As mentioned, it was a late show for Milan against Torino as substitutes Alvaro Morata and Noah Okafor each scored in the closing stages. The changes really made an impact, especially given the likes of Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders were also missing from the starting XI.

The bad news though is that Morata battled through muscle discomfort in order to play in the opener, and while he scored to spark the comeback he caused further damage to the issue which will now keep him out until after the international break.

The Spaniard joins Alessandro Florenzi on the treatment table, who suffered a cruciate ligament and lateral meniscus rupture and isn’t expected back for a long time yet, while Marco Sportiello continues to recover from a deep cut on his left hand that needed surgery.

As for the game against Parma, the main selection doubt was regarding who will replace Morata up front and different sources suggested different things, with Luka Jovic battling Noah Okafor for the starting spot. However, Fonseca confirmed on the eve of the game that it will be the latter.

Switching to the defence, it appears as though Mike Maignan will have a back four of Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlovic and Theo Hernandez ahead of him. The Serbian centre-back – who arrived from Red Bull Salzburg – would be making his first competitive appearance in red and black.

Tijjani Reijnders is expected to partner Ruben Loftus-Cheek in the double pivot which means two things: 1) that Ismael Bennacer will be dropped after a disappointing display against Torino and 2) Youssouf Fofana is not considered fit enough to start yet.

Getting Okafor service will be key, and Fonseca is currently expected to stick with the same attacking trident that he used last weekend. Samuel Chukwueze should be on the right therefore, with Christian Pulisic down the middle and Rafael Leao on the left.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Reijnders, Loftus-Cheek; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao, Okafor.

The opponents

It’s good to have Parma back, isn’t it? It has been a turbulent last decade for them with the club having to reform in 2015, then coming all the way from the lower leagues back to the top flight before dipping again into the mid-table region of Serie B from 2020 onwards.

Last season they stumbled upon the magic formula under head coach Fabio Pecchia and owner Kyle Krause, winning Serie B with 76 points from 38 games including just four defeats and a +31 goal difference.

Now their aim is to stay in the top flight and to do so for a long time, and their summer business has been interesting to say the least. The only permanent signing they have spent money on so far is Zion Suzuki from Sint-Truiden for €7.5m.

Matteo Cancellieri has arrived from Lazio on loan, while Pontus Almqvist and Emanuele Valeri joined on free transfers from Rostov and Frosinone.

A few players left on a free, with the only sales being Gennaro Tutino to Cosenza for €2.5m, Stank Juric to Real Valladolid for €1.5m and Martin Turk to Ruch Chorzow for €150k.

Nonetheless, their first game back was an encouraging one as they drew 1-1 with Fiorentina at the Tardini, having scored in the first half through Denis Man before conceding an equaliser with 15 minutes to go.

The injury absences for Pecchia to deal with include Adrian Benedyczak, Yordan Osorio, Hernani and Gianluca Di Chiara.

They are expected to match Milan with a 4-2-3-1 that includes Bonny up front, Man and Mihaila as the wingers, Bernabe in a deeper midfield role and the new signing Suzuki in goal.

Predicted Parma XI (4-2-3-1): Suzuki; Coulibaly, Del Prato, Circati, Valeri; Bernabe, Estevez; Man, Sohm, Mihaila; Bonny.

Head to head

Milan have played Parma 70 times in competitive games across their almost 125-year history, with 37 of them being wins, 17 draws and 16 defeats in that time, which is a win rate of 52.9%.

The last time that the two sides faced off was in 2020-21, and the Rossoneri were on the ropes in the game at San Siro as goals from Hernani and Kurtic put Parma 2-0 up, but Theo Hernandez scored a brace to rescue a draw.

In the return game at the Tardini, Ante Rebic, Franck Kessie and Rafael Leao scored for Stefano Pioli’s side as they won 3-1.

The last time that Milan lost against Parma was when the Ducati did the double in 2013-14, winning 4-2 at San Siro and 3-2 at home.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have scored in all of their last 16 Serie A matches against Parma (38 goals, 2.4 on average per match); the Rossoneri have a longer open streak of goals against only two opponents in the top division: Triestina (17) and Catania (18).

➤ Milan have won 29 games in Serie A over Parma (14D, 11L), only Roma (33) have beaten Parma more times in the competition. The Rossoneri are unbeaten in the last 8 games against the Gialloblu (6W, 2D), after having lost two games in a row in 2013-14.

➤ Milan has won their last two away games against Parma in Serie A and have only ever once done better in the top flight: between 2004 and 2006 when they picked up three consecutive away wins under Carlo Ancelotti.

➤ After the 1-1 draw at home against Fiorentina, this will be the first time that Parma have begun a Serie A campaign with two home games: the Gialloblu have not drawn in both of their first two games in the top flight since 2001- 02 with Ulivieri in the dugout.

➤ Milan drew their first game of the season but in the last 12 seasons in Serie A, they have always had at least one win from the first two games. The last season without a win for the Rossoneri in the first two games of a season was in 2011-12 (draw against Lazio and defeat to Napoli).

➤ Paulo Fonseca has drawn his first Serie A game as AC Milan coach. In the last 40 years, only one coach failed to pick up a win in one of their first two games in charge of the Rossoneri: Stefano Pioli, draw against Lecce and a defeat to Roma in October 2019.

➤ Between this and last season in Serie A and Serie B, Ange-Yoan Bonny (25/10/2003) has provided 8 assists including one against Fiorentina in the last game. Of the players to have provided at least the same number of assists in the top five European leagues and their respective second divisions, only two are younger than him: Abdul Fatawu (08/03/2004) and Savinho (10/04/2004) .

➤ In the league opener, Zion Suzuki, the first Japanese goalkeeper to play in Serie A, was the keeper who saved the most shots. He made six saves and has only done better on five occasions in his 40 appearances between the Japanese and Belgian leagues.

➤ The first of Theo Hernández’s three hat-tricks in Serie A came on 13 December 2020 against Parma. He has scored a total of three goals in Serie A against us, only scoring more against Torino and Venezia in the same competition.

Ones to watch

For Milan, all eyes will be on seeing both a defensive improvement and seeing more chances taken. Leao missed opportunities against Torino yet it feels like Pulisic and Chukwueze are the ones who must step up their level, and whoever starts up front will have a point to prove.

Then there are the new faces. Theo Hernandez will of course be a huge return to the XI, as will Reijnders, and it will be interesting to see how Pavlovic does if he starts, and how Royal and Fofana do if they play.

Denis Man had 17 goal contributions last season for Parma in Serie B and he scored their first goal back in Serie A in round one, showing that he is still the man to keep an eye on. Adrian Bernabe is a key creative presence too, with his performances even catching Milan’s eye as per reports earlier this year.

The ones who will probably have the most important role are Estevez as the holding midfielder, the young centre-back Circati and the two full-backs Coulibaly and Valeri – how well they play could entirely condition how competitive the game is.

Prediction

There has only been one game, and yet the trip to Parma feels like a must-win for Milan because of what it would mean for Fonseca to have a winless start. Nonetheless, the changes to the line-up and having another week of work really should mean the Rossoneri have enough.

Parma 1-2 Milan