Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Juventus – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan welcome Juventus to San Siro on Saturday evening as the Italian giants renew hostilities, and there is plenty at stake for both sides.

Milan’s inconsistencies in the league have seen them distanced from the leading pack. They are six points behind Juventus who are in sixth, and two points separate them from Napoli in top.

The risk is that if the Rossoneri do not go on a positive run, and perhaps even win the game this weekend, they could be left behind in the Scudetto race. Paulo Fonseca admitted in his pre-match press conference that this is a crucial fixture.

Game date: Saturday, November 23
Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Daniele Chiffi (VAR: Mazzoleni)

Team news

Milan went into the international break with a cloud over them – as has been the case in the two other pauses this season so far – after the 3-3 draw with struggling Cagliari two weeks ago.

However, some good news has come from the international action. Four players got on the scoresheet for their respective countries, there were more assists and Mike Maignan was decisive.

Alvaro Morata also made his return after a clash of heads forced him to miss the game in Sardinia. Meanwhile, back at Milanello, Matteo Gabbia fully shook off his calf problem and is now back in contention.

The only selection issues therefore for Fonseca are the two previously known long-term absentees: Ismael Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi. Even Luka Jovic trained with the rest of the squad on Thursday.

It will be a ‘full strength’ (depending on your viewpoint) Milan backline for the clash. Maignan remains between the sticks, whilst Emerson Royal and Theo retain their places as the full-backs.

However, the starting partnership against Cagliari will be withdrawn. Instead, Fikayo Tomori and Gabbia will return to the starting lineup.

As things stand, it seems Fonseca will look to attack the game, and for this reason, the same five midfielders remain: Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Pulisic and Leao.

There are no shocks with the news that Morata is expected to lead the line.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Morata.

The opponents

Juventus finished third in Serie A last season and won the Coppa Italia, but they sacked Max Allegri on May 17 after he lost his head during the cup final win over Atalanta. Paolo Montero was the interim for the final part of the season.

Then, the decision was made to start a new era in the summer under Thiago Motta, who they hired after his contract with Bologna expired. He was also linked with taking over at Milan, but claimed in his pre-match presser that he was never close to joining the Rossoneri.

A bumper summer window followed as over €160m was invested into the squad. Teun Koopmeiners and Douglaz Luis arrived for over €50m, while Khephren Thuram and Juan Cabal joined for €20.6m and €12.8m respectively.

Some loan deals were also done: Nico Gonzalez came from Fiorentina, Pierre Kalulu from Milan, Francisco Conceiceo from Porto and Michele Di Gregorio from Monza. All have options to be made permanent.

Despite making an unbeaten start in Serie A, Juve are currently sixth. They started with 3-0 wins over Como and Verona but then drew three games in a row 0-0 against Roma, Empoli and Napoli. The other result of note was a 4-4 thriller versus Inter at San Siro at the end of October.

They come into the game off he back of consecutive 2-0 Serie A wins against Udinese and their city rivals Torino. In the Champions League, meanwhile, they have two wins, a draw and a defeat.

Motta is battling a number of selection problems, starting with centre-backs Bremer and Cabal who have both suffered cruciate ligament injuries. That means Kalulu should almost certainly start against his former club.

Arkadiusz Milik will miss out with a knee injury, Nico Gonzalez has a muscle issue and Dusan Vlahovic is also out, which certainly complicates things when it comes to the attack.

Juventus are also set to name a rather standard backline, and it starts with Di Gregorio returning between the sticks. Infront of hi, Savona and Cambiaso keep their places at wing-backs, as do Gatti and Kalulu centrally.

The midfield triangle, barring any late changes, should also remain the same: Locatelli, Thuram and Koopmeiners.

However, there will be changes made in attack, due to injuries.

Conceicao and Kenan Yildiz will once again start on the wings, but Timothy Weah will hope to recreate one of his father’s performances at San Siro, as he is expected to lead the line.

Predicted Juventus XI (4-2-3-1): Perin; Savona, Gatti, Kalulu, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Conceicao, Koopmeiners, Yildiz; Weah.

Head to head

Milan have played Juventus 225 times in their almost 125-year history, making them the team that they have faced the most. The record reads as follows: 65 wins, 72 draws and 88 defeats, a win rate of just 28.9%.

Last season the Bianconeri took four points from the Rossoneri, with a 0-0 draw at the Allianz Stadium preceded by a 0-1 scoreline at San Siro.

Malick Thiaw saw red early on in that game for a foul on Moise Kean, but Juve offered very little and needed a deflected Manuel Locatelli shot to claim the win.

That was their first victory over Milan since January 2021, and the Diavolo did the double over them (a 2-0 win at home and a 1-0 win away) in the 2022-23 campaign.

Key facts and stats

➤ Juventus have scored just two goals in their last seven Serie A games against AC Milan (from May 2021 onwards); in the same period, among the teams they’ve faced at least three times in the competition, the Rossoneri have conceded fewer goals only against Venezia (zero) – on the other hand, the Bianconeri haven’t scored fewer against any side.

➤ Milan have drawn more home games in Serie A against Juventus than against any other side (34, eight more than against any other opponent). 30 Rossoneri wins and 25 Bianconeri wins complete the balance.

➤ Milan have gained 18 points in the current league season and, even in the case of a win in this match, their total points after 12 games would be lower than in each of the last four Serie A campaigns (minimum 23 in 2023-24).

➤ Milan have lost their last home league game (0-2 against Napoli) and could register two consecutive home defeats in Serie A for the first time since October/November 2023 (one of these against Juventus, 0-1 with a goal by Manuel Locatelli, one of the 10 players to have scored for both teams in this fixture).

➤ Before Juventus in 2024/25, the last team to have kept nine clean sheets in the first 12 Serie A games of the season was Juventus in 2014/15 – the last club to keep a clean sheet in 10 of the first 13 matches was Roma in 2013/14.

➤ Juventus have kept four clean sheets in their first five away Serie A games in 2024/25, conceding four goals in the other match against Inter; only three times have the Bianconeri kept five clean sheets in the first six away matches in the competition, doing so in 1967/68, 2004/05 and 2023/24.

➤ Juventus (62) and Milan (45) are the two teams with the most sequences of at least 10 passes ending with a shot or a touch in the opponents box in Serie A in 2024/25; the Bianconeri have the highest possession in the current league season (61.6%) while the Rossoneri have won each of their two games that ended with less than 50% possession (against Udinese and Inter).

➤ Milan have spent the fewest minutes drawing in Serie A this season (345, including injury time); in these moments of play, the Rossoneri have generated the most Expected Goals on average in the 90 minutes (1.9), while Juventus have conceded the fewest (0.6, also on average in the 90 minutes).

➤ Rafael Leão has completed the most dribbles in Serie A in 2024 (74) and has scored nine goals and could become the fourth player able to score 10+ goals in the competition in each of the last three calendar years, after Paulo Dybala, Lautaro Martínez and Dusan Vlahovic.

➤ Only Lamine Yamal (July 2007) is younger than Kenan Yildiz (May 2005) among players with at least three goals in the ‘top five’ European leagues in 2024/25. If he scores in this match, the Turk would surpass five goals for Juventus in Serie A at the age of 19 years and 203 days, becoming the seventh youngest player to do so with Juventus in the competition (Alessandro Del Piero is in eighth place at 19 years and 313 days).

Ones to watch

As cliche as it is, it is difficult to select only two players to watch from both teams for this clash. Given the importance, we must see impressive performances from each of the Rossoneri’s XI, but we can only choose two.

Nevertheless, we are going to start by highlighting Matteo Gabbia. The Italian defender has recently had his contract extension all but confirmed, and he has been targeting this game for his return. An impressive defensive performance will be needed, and Gabbia will command that from his teammates.

The other player to watch closely will be Leao. He has not scored at San Siro since May, and his last goal against one of the big four (three excluding Milan) at the stadium was the 5-1 defeat against Inter.

There is, arguably, no better time to re-introduce yourself to the scoresheet at San Siro than this weekend.

For the opposition, we must start with Tim Weah. The American forward could have followed in his father’s footsteps, but instead opted to move to the Bianconeri. Leading the line tomorrow, he will be hoping to replicate a Weah performance at San Siro.

Sticking with the attack, Milan must be wary of Kenan Yildiz. After two assists (from the bench) against Inter, the Rossoneri must be extra careful against him, if they aren’t, he could punish them.

Prediction

This is a difficult fixture to call. Juventus have not lost this season, and Milan have been far too hit-and-miss to be fully confident. However, you could argue that the Diavolo do not have much to lose, so could attack the game more.

A loss would take them nine points adrift, which cannot happen, and even a draw does not help much. For this reason, we could, hopefully, see a Derby della Madonnina-esque performance. Anything else, and surely worries will grow.

Milan 2-1 Juventus