Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Udinese – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

The international break is over, and AC Milan will be back in Serie A action on Saturday evening when they take on Udinese at San Siro.

Milan didn’t go into the break in the best of ways as they lost to Bayer Leverkusen and Fiorentina just prior to it, with all the drama that accompanied the defeat in Florence putting a dark cloud over Paulo Fonseca and the team for the past 10 days or so.

However, Fonseca stated in his pre-match press conference that he was angered after the last game, but he had revisited the game with the squad and was now looking ahead at a ‘difficult’ Udinese game.

Game date: Saturday, October 19
Kick-off time: 18:00 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Daniele Chiffi (VAR: Mariani)

Team news

As mentioned in the introduction, it is important that Milan obtain three points in order to get their season back on track and stay in touch with the other teams near the top of the table.

There are two bits of good news on the injury front. Ruben Loftus-Cheek trained with the rest of the squad for the first time on Thursday after suffering a slight flexor problem in recent weeks and therefore he is in contention for the game.

Samuel Chukwueze meanwhile returned early from Nigeria due to what was feared to be a muscle issue, but he has also recovered. Thus, everyone is available except the long-term injured players Ismael Bennacer, Marco Sportiello and Alessandro Florenzi who are working on their recoveries.

Theo Hernandez meanwhile is suspended for the next two Serie A games after his red card against Fiorentina, and while he can play on Tuesday night against Club Brugge in the Champions League there remains some debate as to who will replace him for the Udinese and Bologna games.

At the moment it looks as though Filippo Terracciano will get the nod over Alex Jimenez. It was the former Verona man who started over Theo when Fonseca chose to bench the Frenchman for the away game in Lazio.

In addition to the left-back spot, the coach must decide whether to give Strahinja Pavlovic a start at centre-back after Fikayo Tomori’s disaster against Fiorentina and if Tammy Abraham should be benched following the penalty debacle that took place.

The defence will be quite standard by all accounts, and reports from this evening suggest that Emerson Royal will once again be picked ahead of Davide Calabria – even though the captain has returned to training. Mike Maignan and Matteo Gabbia will also retain their positions.

It seems that Pavlovic will be given the nod ahead of Tomori, and Filippo Terracciano should be named at left-back, even if Fonseca stated that he was unsure of his selection earlier today.

In midfield, the double pivot will remain Reijnders and Fofana, and the Portuguese head coach should stay with the 4-2-3-1. This means that Samuel Chukwueze will make a rare start, and Noah Okafor is seemingly preferred to Rafael Leao. With this Christian Pulisic will play as the Trequartista, and Alvaro Morata will lead.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Terracciano; Fofana, Reijnders; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Okafor; Morata.

The opponents

The 2023-24 season was a strange one for Udinese as they looked like being relegated for large stretches given that they won just one game from the start of the season to December 30th (no prizes for guessing who it was against).

They actually only won six games all season which is comfortably less than the teams around them, and yet their 19 draws took them onto 37 points which was enough to claim a 15th-place finish in the standings.

In terms of summer business, the Zebrette spent €8m to sign striker Lorenzo Lucca permanently from Pisa and he was the headline signing, along with midfielder Jurgen Ekkelenkamp for €5.5m from Royal Antwerp.

They also spent between €3.5m and €2m on each of Damien Pizarro (from Colo-Colo), Razvan Sava (from CFR Cluj), Rui Modesto (from AIK) and Jesper Karlstrom (from Lech Poznan). In terms of sales, they got a combined €18m for Matheus Martins and Walace.

If last season they were very slow starters, this time around Udinese have come out flying. They have beaten Lazio, Como, Parma and Lecce to record four wins in their first seven games which puts them fifth, above Milan at present.

However, their two defeats are against Roma and Inter which suggests that they have benefitted from someone of an accessible schedule on paper, although they will arrive at San Siro full of confidence with points on the board.

In terms of injury news, Gerard Deulofeu – the former Rossoneri loanee – is out after undergoing knee surgery, Martin Payero has a foot problem and Thomas Kristensen has calf trouble. Sandi Lovric and Florian Thauvin are also doubts for the game due to muscle issues.

There should only be one change to the Udine outfit’s backline. Okoye, Kabasele and Bijol remain whereas Giannetti comes in for Toure to make up the back three and goalkeeper. In midfield, heavy changes are, once again, unexpected after a great start.

Ehizibue, Lovric, Karlstrom, Ekkelenkamp and Zemura, should make up the midfield five. In front of them, Milan must be wary of Lorenzo Lucca and his strike partner Iker Bravo.

Predicted Udinese XI (3-5-2): Okoye; Kabasele, Bijol, Giannetti; Ehizibue, Lovric, Karlstrom, Ekkelenkamp, Zemura; Iker Bravo, Lucca

Head to head

AC Milan have played Udinese 105 times across their history in competitive games, with a record of 45 wins, 37 draws and 23 defeats leaving an overall win percentage of 42.9%.

Last season the Bianconeri arrived at San Siro for the first meeting of the season winless after 10 games, and Roberto Pareyra’s penalty just after the hour mark earned them an unlikely victory.

The return game meanwhile was chaotic to say the least. Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Lazar Samardzic scored to make it 1-1 at the break, then Florian Thauvin put the hosts ahead before Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor struck late to earn Milan a big win.

That was the game in which the players went off the field as Mike Maignan complained about repeated racist abuse from the Udinese fans, so it carried an extra bit of meaning when Okafor’s shot hit the back of the net deep into added time.

Udinese could be considered a bogey team given that the Diavolo have beaten them just once in their last four games at San Siro. Stretching back to 2000, Milan have lost seven times in home games to the Friulani.

Key facts and stats

➤ In the last seven Serie A encounters between AC Milan and Udinese, both sides have won two matches (D3); the Rossoneri won the last meeting (3-2) at Bluenergy Stadium on 20 January 2024.

➤ Udinese won their last Serie A away match against Milan (1-0 on 4 November 2023) and could win back- to-back games on the road against the Rossoneri for the first time in the top-flight.

➤ Milan lost last time out against Fiorentina and could suffer two defeats in a row in Serie A for the first time since January-February 2023 (three in that case against Lazio, Sassuolo and Inter).

➤ Milan have lost four of their first nine (W3 D2) competitive matches this season; in the last 80 years, only twice have they recorded at least five defeats in their first 10 matches in all competitions: in 2019-20 and in 2012-13 (five both).

➤ Milan have won their last two home league games without conceding a goal; the Rossoneri could keep a clean sheet in three home matches in a row for the first time in Serie A since the period between March and May 2022 (five in that case).

➤ Udinese have won six of their last 10 league matches (D2 L2): as many wins as in their previous 46 Serie A games (W6 D20 L20).

➤ In the last two seasons (since 2023/24), AC Milan have failed to score five of their 13 penalties taken in all competitions: only Fiorentina (six) have had more penalty misses during this period among big five European league sides.

➤ No team has scored more headed goals than AC Milan and Udinese in Serie A this season: four, level with Atalanta and Inter.

➤ For the first time in his career, Christian Pulisic has scored in four matches in a row in the Big-5 European Leagues. Only five AC Milan players have found the net in five consecutive Serie A games in the three-points-for-a-win era: Olivier Giroud, Zlatan Ibrahimovic (twice), Filippo Inzaghi, Andriy Shevchenko (twice) and George Weah.

➤ Florian Thauvin has provided six points to Udinese thanks to his three goals and an assist: the joint-most in Serie A this season (also six points Marcus Thuram). Furthermore, only matchday opponent Rafael Leão has completed more dribbles (16) than Thauvin (13, level with Reda Belahyane and Dodô) in the top flight in 2024-25.

Ones to watch

Looking first at the opposition, the Rossoneri must be wary of Lorenzo Lucca, the young striker has been a known prospect in Italy for several years, and with three goals in seven appearances so far, he is starting to show his ability on the big stage.

In terms of Milan players, the first player of interest has to be Filippo Terracciano, the young full-back has shown signs of his ability rarely, and for this reason, his performance will be watched closely by Fonseca and the fans, especially considering what is at stake.

Staying at full-back, Emerson Royal will have to deliver a strong performance with Davide Calabria returning to full fitness. The Brazilian has been uncontested in his position recently, and for this reason, a poor performance would lead to questions about a return for the captain.

Finally, Noah Okafor has a golden opportunity to prove himself as a Milan player, the winger has rarely seen consistent minutes since joining the club, and you’ve got to feel that this might be his last big chance. Given he can rotate into the striker role – giving Fonseca some tactical flexibility – he needs to be near perfect.

Prediction

The importance of this game cannot be understated. Every game must be perfect for Milan now after their start to the season, and starting this period of games with a win at San Siro would be a confidence booster if nothing else. Whilst a clean sheet would be appreciated, with changes happening in defence, it would not be a surprise if a goal was conceded.

Milan 2-1 Udinese