Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Venezia – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

Serie A is back after the international break, and AC Milan resume their campaign with a home game against newly-promoted Venezia on Saturday night.

The pressure will be on Milan to perform at San Siro given that they are winless in their first three games, with a 2-2 draw against Torino in round one followed by back-to-back away games against Parma and Lazio which yielded a 2-1 defeat and another 2-2 draw respectively.

Speaking of pressure, Paulo Fonseca knows that fans must start to see some kind of turnaround soon both in terms of the results and the style of play, something he admitted in his pre-match press conference.

Game date: Saturday, September 14
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Davide Di Marco (VAR: Fabbri)

Team news

As mentioned, it is of vital important that Milan do not just win this game but that they show enough to build on in view of the fixtures against Liverpool in the Champions League and Inter in the derby next week.

The international break brought both good and bad news, so we will start with the latter. Ismael Bennacer suffered a muscle injury while training with Algeria and it quickly became apparent that it was a serious one.

He returned to Italy for scans yesterday and the diagnosis from various different sources is that he will miss the rest of 2024 because he has completely torn his calf. It is possible that he might even need surgery on it.

However, this means there could well be the opportunity for two Milan Futuro players – namely Kevin Zeroli and Silvano Vos – to step up and fill the void left by the former Empoli man, should Fonseca choose to call them up. At the time of publishing, it seems Zeroli will be summoned.

On the plus side, Alvaro Morata returned to full training after missing the last two games due to a muscle problem of his own. The latest projections suggest he will start on the bench, given he is not yet back to 100%.

That will in turn provide a chance for deadline day signing Tammy Abraham to lead the line after he impressed on debut against Lazio, and it is expected that he will be supported by an attacking trident formed of Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Rafael Leao.

The midfield double pivot should be Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders, with a back four in front of Mike Maignan consisting of Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja and Theo Hernandez.

There was talk of a plan to rest Strahinja Pavlovic ahead of facing Mo Salah and Lautaro Martinez in the upcoming two games after, but Sky now think it is Tomori who will drop to the bench.

The majority of the aforementioned players have been away on international duty, with Reijnders and Pulisic starring in particular, and we provided a round-up of how each player got on.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Reijnders, Fofana; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Abraham.

The opponents

This is not Venezia’s first foray into the top flight as they spent the 2021-22 campaign in Serie A too, the season that Milan won the Scudetto, but they finished rock bottom and were ultimately relegated.

After finishing 8th in Serie B the season after that, they secured a return to the big show in 2023-24, finishing third in the league table and winning the play-offs by beating Palermo 3-1 on aggregate.

The contrast between the mercato that Venezia have had compared to another team that got promoted in Como is stark, given the latter have focused on going for big names and statement signings.

The Venetians meanwhile signed six players for a fee and all under €5m: Gaetano Oristanio from Inter, Joel Schingtienne from OH Leuven, Richie Sagrado from the same Belgian side, John Yaboah from Rakow, Giorgio Altare from Cagliari and Issa Doumbia from AlbinoLeffe.

On the flip side, they lost arguably their most important player in Tanner Tessman, the USA international midfielder who went to Lyon. Former Bayern Munich man Michael Cuisance also went to Hertha BSC.

In terms of team news, Venezia are expected to welcome back Gio Busio – who played for the United States at the Olympics – but he might not be fit enough to start. Meanwhile, Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason should also miss the game due to injury.

Eusebio Di Francesco took over from Paolo Vanoli as head coach during the summer after the promotion-winning coach was poached by Torino. His replacement is known for using a 4-3-3 but now seems to prefer a three-man defence.

It seems Pohjanpalo will lead the line with Oristanio and Ellertsson supporting the attack. A midfield four of Candela, Duncan, Caviglia and Zampano should sit ahead of the three centre-backs Idzes, Svoboda and Sverko.

Predicted Venezia XI (3-4-2-1): Joronen; Idzes, Svoboda, Sverko; Candela, Duncan, Caviglia, Zampano; Oristanio, Ellertsson; Pohjanpalo.

Head to head

Milan have played Venezia 31 times in their history across all competitions, winning 21 of them with 11 draws and four defeats, producing a win rate of 64.5% which is among the highest in terms of opponents played a significant amount.

The two sides last met in the 2021-22 season when Venezia dropped back into the second tier, and Milan took six points. A 2-0 home win (goals from Brahim Diaz and Theo) was followed up by a 3-0 away win, in which Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored and Theo got a brace.

The last time that the Rossoneri lost a game against the Leoni Alati was in March 2000, a 1-0 away defeat, while at San Siro it was all the way back in November 1942.

Key facts and stats

➤ Milan have won 10 of their last 13 Serie A games against Venezia, including a 2-0 awarded win in 1963 (D2 L1) – the only win for the Venetians in the period was on 19 March 2000 (1-0 with a goal netted by Filippo Maniero).

➤ Milan haven’t lost in 12 of their 13 home games against Venezia in Serie A (W8 D4); the only away win for the Venetians against the Rossoneri in the top flight was in November 1942 (2-1 at the Arena Civica in that case, with goals by Puppo and Pernigo).

➤ Milan haven’t won any of their last five league games (D3 L2). The Rossoneri could register a longer streak without a win in Serie A for the first time since March and April 2018 (six in that case under Gennaro Gattuso).

➤ After draws against Torino and Lazio and a defeat against Parma, AC Milan could fail to win any of their first four Serie A games of the season for the second time in the last 65 years, after 1997/98 (D2 L2 in that case).

➤ Milan have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five league games (12 goals conceded, 2.4 on average). Only once in their Serie A history have the Rossoneri recorded a longer streak of consecutive matches with at least two goals conceded: eight between 1943 and 1946.

➤ After losing 10 games in a row in Serie A, Venezia haven’t lost in four of their last six matches in the top- flight (W1 D3).

➤ Venezia (860) have applied the second-most high- intensity pressures in Serie A this season, behind only Empoli (908) – on the other hand, only Bologna (842) have received more high-intensity pressure than Milan (828).

➤ Since the start of last season, Rafael Leão is the only player to have at least 10 goals and 10 assists in Serie A (10 + 10 for him). Against Venezia, the Portuguese international has provided two assists, both in the same game in January 2022.

➤ Theo Hernández has scored three goals against Venezia in Serie A, a joint record for him, level with Parma and Torino. He’s scored 27 goals in Serie A with AC Milan, equal with Aldo Maldera (27) at second place among the defenders with the most goals for the Rossoneri in the top-flight and two behind the record held by Paolo Maldini (29).

➤ Alfred Duncan has scored more goals against AC Milan than against any other side in Serie A (3), including his last goal in the top-flight in March 2024 with Fiorentina.

Ones to watch

After the cooling break saga, there will be a lot of eyes on how Theo and Leao play on the left side. They are the driving force and often the creative heart of the team yet their performances this season have come under fire, so this is a game to get back on track.

Reijnders was outstanding for the Netherlands and will look to carry that confidence over, but the real scrutiny will be on how the Rossoneri defend. In that sense, Fofana will have to act as the shield, with Pavlovic and Tomori perhaps dialling their aggression back a touch.

The only player that has scored a goal for Venezia this season is Andersen and he is out injured, while Ellertsson was the one who set that up. Joronen in goal and Duncan in midfield – both 31 – are two experienced heads who will be important, as is defender Sampan (30).

Oristiano would love to make an impression given his past at Inter, while Gyktkjaer was part of the Monza team that got promoted under Palladino.

Prediction

This is the definition of a must-win game for Fonseca, especially with what is to come after. The ideal scenario is that it will be a very comfortable one, yet that feels unlikely with all the uncertainty surrounding this team, but there should still be enough quality.

Milan 2-1 Venezia