Scouting Notebook: Sell Shady?

In a redraft, it’s clear that DeMarco Murray would be the number one pick. Heck, I might even draft him despite my hatred of drafting first-round running backs.

The question is where the consensus No. 1 pick, LeSean McCoy, would go in a redraft right now.

I get a lot trade questions. Kudos for even thinking about trading. One of my pet peeves with this column is that when I use the short-hand of “making a move” for Player X, people assume that I’m saying that guy is available on waivers. It’s like trading doesn’t even enter their minds.

But the McCoy conundrum right now illustrates what I believe are two basic rules of trading. The first, and most important, is to never sell low. Some good players who I respect disagree with this and cut their losses, but over the long term I think this is a guaranteed losing strategy. Once you have committed to a player, say McCoy, being a bust, I think your best odds are to wait for a good week, even if only in the context of a bad season, and then have the discipline to still move him for greater return on investment. It may only be 80 cents on the dollar. But it’s not going to be a certain 50 cents. No one loves DeAndre Hopkins more than me but when I was asked on the radio Monday about trading McCoy  for him, I had to say no. Do not accept the certain loss. Bet on McCoy ripping off a couple of big runs and then move him.

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That said, I like the thinking here of a running back for a wide receiver. I don’t like trading a running back for a running back. These challenge trades are useful figuratively for the purposes of hypothetically valuing an ascending and descending player at the same position. But actually proposing them just telegraphs that you think their guy is better than your guy. If you're a good player in your league, as I hope you are, that offer is certain to be rejected because people will rightfully believe you are not thinking win-win but rather win-lose.

Let’s now go around the league in reverse order.

I sure hope you weren’t one of the many determined to bench Tony Romo for Kirk Cousins. Worries about Romo were reasonable, but Cousins? He was terrible last year. I had a bad feeling about his matchup and went all in on Twitter (@michaelsalfino) on the Giants defense wrecking him and Eli Manning trouncing Cousins in fantasy (only to highlight how so few seemed to consider Manning as even a streaming option against a terrible Washington pass defense). Learn from going the wrong way here. An expert is someone who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field. I remember wrecking my FAAB budget one year by going all-in on Redskins quarterback Stan Humphries after a single good game. And don’t make the same kinds of mistakes twice — there are always so many new ones to make.

The Eagles offense laid an egg. I don’t know what it means long term. Probably nothing. This happened last year at home against the Cowboys of all teams and then Nick Foles and company came back stronger than ever. Chip Kelly will make adjustments. As for the Eagles line and problems run blocking, McCoy has to overcome that. We didn't draft him that high because he needed a good offensive line to be even semi-productive.

Riley Cooper over Jordan Matthews is a football sin.

Matt Asiata has the agility and speed of my Roomba. I can’t ever remember a three-TD running back not even being the guy to own on his team. But jet-propelled Jerick McKinnon is the get in Minnesota. And if McKinnon turns out to be wrong, I don’t want to be right.

Cordarrelle Patterson is such a disappointment. I’d bench him before I cut him. He had only four targets but ran two nice routes on his catches. I can’t argue too hard against cutting him for, say, Andre Holmes, though. Ultimately, Teddy Bridgewater, who seems really good, should help Patterson unless Patterson is just a dog who can’t learn new route-running tricks.

Keenan Allen is off the cut list, I guess. And Philip Rivers is probably the best quarterback right now in reality which makes him a must play in fantasy, too.

I don’t know what to make out of Steve Smith. It seems like the Ravens' overriding mission this year is to make a case for Smith being a Hall of Famer. But his day takes on a totally different vibe if not for the lucky catch off the deflection. Smith is definitely a sell high. Smith for McCoy is a trade you may be able to make, for example. It’s at least worth trying.

Last week, I talked about Andre Johnson’s declining numbers in the context of his age. There were 27 receivers 6-foot-3-plus and 215-plus who had 50-plus catch seasons at ages 28-32. Just two had them age 33-plus. There have been 66 small wideouts (5-foot-11 or less and 200 pounds or less) with 50-plus catches age 28-32, and 16 repeated at age 33-plus. The morale is you don’t want old receivers period. But the short ones age better. Always big over small otherwise, as a general rule. (Cite every exception in the comments and I’ll break things.)

I guess Doug Martin is just a bust.

Vincent Jackson salvaged a terrible day with the winning touchdown. Mike Glennon was looking for him a lot (10 targets) and Mike Evans is hurt. This is the last year I’ll be drafting 31-year-old Jackson though.

Holmes, mentioned before as a hypothetical waiver replacement for Patterson, had 12 targets, more than twice any other Oakland WR. And Darren McFadden should be picked up off waivers, too. These bad teams usually have one or two fantasy assets.

Lamar Miller is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, kids. He’s good.

Andrew Luck is clearly a major fantasy asset but I’m always amused by his owners demanding his greatness be generally acknowledged, too. Sorry, but feasting on the AFC South does not impress me that much. Those doormats will keep coming though.

Trent Richardson is the rich man’s Matt Asiata right now. I think that’s a compliment. He has a higher yards per carry than McCoy at least. And Ahmad Bradshaw is in a walking boot so the volume will be there.

Eli Manning is a top 12 quarterback and Rueben Randle a top 25 wide receiver. Rashad Jennings owners have to get Andre Williams now. Either two things will happen with Jennings: His volume will dip dramatically from earlier levels because of his age and having no track record as a bell cow. Or he will break. Any other possibility is extremely remote.