Scouting Notebook: Gordon going gonzo

Josh Gordon is back and the NFL is his playground. He’s on one of the most epic wide receiver runs ever, one unfairly interrupted by outdated NFL policy designed to prevent off-field conduct that few, if any, still consider worthy of a suspension.

Gordon has eight games of at least 120 receiving yards since 2013, which for him is only 15 games (thanks, Roger Goodell and NFLPA). That’s the most in football in that span, tying Gordon with T.Y. Hilton, who has played 12 more games. A.J. Green, DeSean Jackson and Demaryius Thomas have seven each. Calvin Johnson (more on him later) has four. So 120 receiving yards for Gordon is above his median and thus his projection. That's insane.

Gordon doesn’t have Peyton Manning so maybe Demaryius Thomas is the top fantasy wide receiver going forward. But Gordon is No. 2. What receiver in the history of our game has had this kind of floor? And he gets 15 targets every game, too.

Brian Hoyer is a big problem but even he can’t screw Gordon up. If not for Hoyer, Gordon would have had a 200-yard receiving game even if we limit our misses to those plays where he was wide open.

Consider these three Hoyer “throws”: 1) https://twitter.com/michaelsalfino/status/536918998861246466, 2) https://twitter.com/michaelsalfino/status/536919088904568832 and 3) https://twitter.com/michaelsalfino/status/536919180654960640

And don’t talk to me about Hoyer’s record. That’s pure outcome bias. When the QB has good stats and a mediocre record, maybe there’s something we’re missing (this hardly ever happens though). When he looks bad but wins, that’s just a fluke. The wins have no predictive value, only the quality of his play does. The Browns, to be clear, are winning despite Hoyer.

Kyle Shanahan is doing an unbelievable job of getting guys wide open, which he did with RGIII in 2012, too. I’d love to see this with Johnny Manziel though.

Odell Beckham was a guy I was badly wrong about because he wasn’t a big receiver and had underwhelming productivity in college in the context of his team. But he plays way bigger than his listed height. I think the lesson we’re going to learn from Beckham is not to look at hands as much as hand size, something I’ve written about frequently. More on this in Splitsville on Thursday (if I remember).

What do we make of his catch? Does it have any predictive value or is it one play? Mostly the latter but a little bit of the former, as what Beckham did on that catch was like a baseball player hitting a 500-foot homer. That’s just one swing but we know he has power without the need to see anything else. Beckham has freakish gifts, it’s clear.

The Patriots offense is as productive as any we’ve had in recent years and whoever the goal-line back is should be an automatic start in this running back bereft year. I stand by those comments last week. And they even ran it well against the feared Lions. But I thought those carries would all be Jonas Gray’s, not LeGarrette Blount’s. Reportedly, Gray’s benching was not due to the alarm clock fiasco but due to Blount being better. It’s still cruel and a violation of the covenant to practice hard and play well when given a chance in order to be rewarded. This is even jerkier than benching Gray for being late to practice. Blount was on another team on Monday, the day after Gray led the Patriots to their biggest win of the season.

Latavius Murray is a guy you really don’t need stats to rank. He has signature skill, the ability to separate from defensive backs in the open field at 230 pounds. I can’t think of more than five guys who’ve ever been able to do that. How was he in mothballs all year? Coaches are just the worst people to be given these decisions, it seems. Murray is easily a top 15 back going forward and someone with his speed and power is not really matchup dependent or even team dependent. Remember, take chances on these new running backs because most of the old ones have such low ceilings. So you’re risking little.

Man, Anquan Boldin is underrated. Every year we overlook him and given his age, we’re going to do it again next year. One year, we’ll be right.

Is Calvin Johnson now Meh-gatron? Yeah, the schedule is nice going forward and you can’t bench him but you can’t expect him to carry your team anymore. He’s just another good fantasy receiver. And he’s seemingly declining in a hurry, both on the field and physically. I want nothing to do with Johnson next year in the first round of any draft, and I’m basically Mr. (Big) WR. The tall guys (6-3 and over) crater fast and Johnson (6-foot-5) is really tall so maybe 30 is the cutoff for him. It’s going to be mine.

I believe in Keenan Allen because it’s always too early to give up on young talent with an elite quarterback.

Who is the guy among you that pushed back last week in the comments when I said I’d be angry if anyone traded C.J. Anderson for Andre Ellington because Anderson was way better. Reveal yourself! The point I was making was that Anderson being a top six back is not a big deal when No. 7 entering the week was Ellington. But I was wrong. Anderson is a big deal. How was he ever behind the terrible Montee Ball on the depth chart?

Isaiah Crowell is a top 10 back, it is decreed. What about Arian Foster? I can’t trust him but I understand that if he’s active, you have to play him (fingers crossed).

Again, Charles Johnson is the real deal. But Teddy Bridgewater, at least at the moment, is not. The Browns, if they weren’t so stupid, could have had Johnson and Gordon. They just let Johnson go (by keeping him on their practice squad) even after Gordon was suspended. For Miles Austin. That’s a football crime. Almost as criminal as wasting a whole year without finding out one thing about Johnny Football.

I’d go Johnson, Jarvis Landry and Justin Hunter among wide receivers perceived to be fringy but who are at least gettable via trade/waiver wire. They all have a bettable chance to be impactful championship assets.