Scouting Notebook: Brady still elite

An expert, I’ve long said, is someone who’s made every mistake that can be made in a narrow field. So I’m a fantasy football expert for sure.

When I talk now about what went right with some calls, it’s not to pat myself on the back or knock people who went the other way. It’s to focus on the thought process that went into these calls, a process that was shaped by prior mistakes.

So we start in New England with Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski.

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My confidence in Brady when many were dumping him was based on the convergence between fantasy QB scoring and QB play in reality. That was step one: if Brady was a good real-life QB, he should be a good fantasy QB. There are exceptions, of course, as with all things, but this is the rule.

But another question was whether Brady was still a good QB. But what I learned from prior mistakes, some many years ago, is that saying a player has lost it isn’t good enough. You need a persuasive reason. And Brady’s age simply did not work for me.

With Gronkowski, I learned from past mistakes with Wes Welker and Adrian Peterson, who I was very wrong about after similar surgeries. Prior to draft season, Gronkowski was beating all of his recovery benchmarks. The injury experts and doctors were saying that the knee would not be an issue, though he would need a month or so to round into shape once the season started. Their words have proved prophetic. And it was their words, not mine. I delegate this stuff out to people with more expertise. I have no ability and thus no desire to “have a feeling” on injuries.

And in this case, there was a total convergence because Gronkowski rounding into shape would give Brady, who is great himself, arguably the best red zone receiving weapon in the history of our game (and in reality, as well).

I will stipulate that “terrible offensive line” could have been an argument against Brady but it’s very unusual for elite coaches to not be able to figure out an offensive line pretty quickly. And, of course, Brady has Bill Belichick, too. These are more lessons learned after being very wrong. My friend Gene McCaffrey says “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.” I agree with that. But I’m adding: “To be very right, you first have to be very wrong.”

So those should be the lasting lessons: Don’t project the demise of a great player without a very compelling argument and don’t think about injuries yourself — research them and rely on medical experts.

And there are many things I’ve been wrong about, even this year. I look at each mistake and try to separate things that are just bad luck/random from the wrong decisions that are rooted more in faulty thought processes. An example of this in 2014, for me, was Corderelle Patterson and Keenan Allen, who I too aggressively projected as clear No. 1 receivers on their teams without factoring team dynamics and their inexperience.

Now let’s try to get way more right than we get wrong off of Week 8:

Cam Newton is a puzzle. He looked terrible on Sunday. He’s just in that mix of fringy QB1s with just about everyone except Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Brady. Beyond that group, you’re probably best off just streaming. But I’ve learned you can’t stream running QBs effectively. So if you have Cam, you have to keep playing him.

Ben Roethlisberger was available on waivers in one of my leagues and I thought the Colts game would be high scoring but got really lucky with one of the greatest passing days ever. But Roethlisberger is always a top option because of what I talked about with convergence. I always get pushback when I say this, but Roethlisberger is elite and clearly a Hall of Famer still in his prime. Plus the Steelers have a terrible, old defense.

Travis Kelce (seen here juking a Rams defender) is someone I have been really wrong about, especially off the New England game. But I’m putting that into the “random” file because what Andy Reid is doing with him makes no sense. Maybe I’m being too easy on myself though. Feel free to disagree.

Brandon LaFell is in the big WR box. I completely believe in him. Same with Donte Moncrief, who really should have been picked up on waivers last week off the Reggie Wayne injury. Do not sell Moncrief as he’s the only guy on the team who can go up and get it on the boundaries.

The rookie receivers are really returning value this year. Kelvin Benjamin has been great and is still the top guy for me. I was wrong about Sammy Watkins, being too size rigid there when he’s close enough to being big. I’ll try not to make that mistake again with such a universally-praised prospect. And I really like Allen Robinson on the Jaguars, too.

Two underachieving receivers I’d hold are Julio Jones and Michael Floyd. In fact, I’d be buying both. I think you can get Floyd now for a back like Chris Ivory, who is really good but in a bad set up.

I would sell Golden Tate right now. After the bye, I figure Calvin Johnson will be back. He was reportedly making progress last week. Then who knows about Tate. And I hated Tate in August at his ADP, but not really reviewing that because he was a disappointment when Megatron was healthy.

I think you can cut Pierre Thomas now. And Mark Ingram is a top 10 back, easily. I liked him all year. He was the textbook ZeroRB running back. But I had to cut him in my leagues with silly short benches given all the byes. I hate that but in the long run you are better off not holding guys out a month or more. The process was correct, though the result is unfortunate.

Backs on the waiver wires this week are Jonas Gray, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Steven Jackson, Juwan Thompson, Montee Ball. That’s the order they’d come off the board for me. But all are worth rostering. Ball is terrible in reality but perhaps the Broncos remain committed to him. It’s worth the zero cost to find out.

While I was wrong about Patterson, I did quickly pivot in September and suggest cutting him for Andre Holmes. Holmes is rock solid going forward, I believe. The Raiders being terrible is a big plus.

If you’re struggling at tight end, Jace Amaro is on pace for 64 catches, though he’s not doing much with them. I expect more yards and touchdowns with increased volume going forward. But Amaro is always going to be prone to drops because of his relatively tiny hands.

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