Scotland may ease lockdown slightly 'to allow more daily exercise'

Nicola Sturgeon has said she could agree to the slight easing of Scotland’s lockdown from Monday but has rejected any significant relaxation of the rules.

The first minister said on Thursday the only relaxation she would consider would be allowing people to exercise outdoors more than once a day from next week, but only if the scientific advice justified it.

Related: Strain emerges between UK government and Scotland over easing lockdown

She said there were concerns about public unrest in Scotland if Boris Johnson decided to relax England’s lockdown rules more quickly, after reports that ministers in London were considering allowing people to play golf, take picnics, take unlimited exercise and visit outdoor cafes from next week.

Sturgeon said the prime minister was due to host a teleconference with the leaders of the devolved nations later on Thursday, following criticism from both Edinburgh and Cardiff that he had failed to consult them about his plans to relax the lockdown.

There were signs on Thursday that Downing Street was drawing back on reports overnight, attributed to UK government sources, that the prime minister would support greater outdoor activities. Officials at No 10 said there would be “maximum caution” about the extent to which the lockdown was eased.

Sturgeon said her government was “constantly” talking to Police Scotland about public order; the force has said its data shows a high level of compliance with the strict lockdown regulations, but by late April 78 people had been arrested and there had been more than 7,800 alleged breaches of the lockdown.

“As these messages over time become more nuanced, then the issues around enforcement become, potentially, much more difficult,” Sturgeon said.

Sturgeon said she was opposed to any significant easing of the lockdown rules, and warned against the UK’s devolved nations being pressurised into adopting lighter regulations before it was safe to do so.

She said it seemed that Scotland’s current rate of community transmission, the so-called R number, was hovering around 1. She said Scotland was still a few weeks behind England in the infection curve. That needed to be far lower before the regulations were greatly eased, she said.

“Any significant easing up of restrictions at this stage could be very, very risky indeed,” she said. “All that tells me is that extreme caution is required at this critical juncture.”

Epidemics of infectious diseases behave in different ways but the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people is regarded as a key example of a pandemic that occurred in multiple waves, with the latter more severe than the first. It has been replicated – albeit more mildly – in subsequent flu pandemics.

How and why multiple-wave outbreaks occur, and how subsequent waves of infection can be prevented, has become a staple of epidemiological modelling studies and pandemic preparation, which have looked at everything from social behaviour and health policy to vaccination and the buildup of community immunity, also known as herd immunity.

Is there evidence of coronavirus coming back elsewhere?

This is being watched very carefully. Without a vaccine, and with no widespread immunity to the new disease, one alarm is being sounded by the experience of Singapore, which has seen a sudden resurgence in infections despite being lauded for its early handling of the outbreak.

Although Singapore instituted a strong contact tracing system for its general population, the disease re-emerged in cramped dormitory accommodation used by thousands of foreign workers with inadequate hygiene facilities and shared canteens.

Singapore’s experience, although very specific, has demonstrated the ability of the disease to come back strongly in places where people are in close proximity and its ability to exploit any weakness in public health regimes set up to counter it.

What are experts worried about?

Conventional wisdom among scientists suggests second waves of resistant infections occur after the capacity for treatment and isolation becomes exhausted. In this case the concern is that the social and political consensus supporting lockdowns is being overtaken by public frustration and the urgent need to reopen economies.

The threat declines when susceptibility of the population to the disease falls below a certain threshold or when widespread vaccination becomes available.

In general terms the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals in a population at the end of one wave determines the potential magnitude of a subsequent wave. The worry right now is that with a vaccine still months away, and the real rate of infection only being guessed at, populations worldwide remain highly vulnerable to both resurgence and subsequent waves.

Peter Beaumont

While another 59 people died in hospital in Scotland over the last 24 hours, the numbers in hospital fell again by 45 to 1,587, and the numbers in intensive care were also down, by three to 86. She said Scotland was at a “pivotal point” and the worst result of any easing would be seeing cases suddenly surge again.

Earlier on Thursday, Sir Harry Burns, Scotland’s former chief medical officer, told MSPs he was very “leery” about easing the lockdown before the R rate was below 0.5 because of the clear risk it would lead to a fresh surge in cases.

Sturgeon’s cautious approach was also backed by Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, on a visit to Scotland. Starmer said it was essential all four parts of the UK took the same approach.

“Having different approaches and rival strategies isn’t going to help. I’m not talking about [more cautious nations having] a veto but my strong preference is that the whole of the UK move as one on this,” he said.

“The danger if we don’t act together is that there are then different rules for different places, that makes it much more difficult to police.” It was “very hard to see how you could have separate regimes in different countries or regions”, he added.

Iain Livingstone, Scotland’s chief constable, told the Scottish Police Authority, his force’s supervisory body, last week that having different lockdown rules in force in different places would present challenges for policing.

He said it could put public consent under strain but insisted his force would cope. “I do think it will be difficult and it will be more nuanced than we’ve seen in the early weeks, which have proved challenging but the service has stood up to that,” he said.