Save Percentages For Canada's 4 Nations Starters May Not Rival Carey Price Or Martin Brodeur — And That's OK

As the old saying goes, there’s only one net. So in a short tournament like next February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, success won’t come down to which country can assemble the best netminding trio. It’ll be all about who has the hot hand.

This tournament consists of just seven games — three round-robin games for each team, then the two top squads will play off in a championship contest. The games are well spaced out, so there won’t be any need for extra rest.

The teams that are on track for that championship game might have reason to use two goalies. But it’s hard to imagine all three seeing action on any squad unless things don’t go well at all.

Lots of ink has already been spilled about the fact that Canada doesn’t have an elite No. 1 like Carey Price, Roberto Luongo or Martin Brodeur available this time around. But it is worth noting that while Canada's prime contenders for the job are carrying save percentages in the .900 range or below, that means something very different than when Price took Canada to gold at the 2014 Olympics, when the NHL’s average save percentage was .914.

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We expect play to be a little bit loose during the first month of the NHL season, but it hasn’t settled down yet. In mid-October, the league’s average save percentage was below .900 for the first time since the 1995-96 season, at .899. Heading into action on Saturday night, it had actually dipped even lower, all the way to .896.

Last month, Hockey Hall of Famer and Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist weighed in on the state of modern goaltending. He suggested that today's goalies face shooters who are more skilled, and that current techniques put a lot of strain on the joints of the bigger-bodied stoppers who have come to dominate the position.

Earlier this week, Justin Bourne of Sportsnet included those points in his examination of the position. He also brought up a couple of other interesting ideas — that shooters have learned how to exploit the openings that are left for them by today’s position-first goalkeepers, and that teams now understand that all shots are not created equal, and players are more willing to bide their time and wait for high-percentage scoring opportunities.

There's a lot more at play here than just today's smaller goalie equipment. For now, it looks like the goalies who can blend their strong positional fundamentals with the athleticism to keep pucks out of the net when things go sideways will be the ones who see the most success.

And that's where Canada's options don't look so worrisome. With a Stanley Cup ring from 2019 and a strong campaign in 2023-24, Jordan Binnington bumped his save percentage up to .903 with a busy 35-save night against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.

He's well outside the league-wide top 10 in goals saved above expected according to MoneyPuck.com, but Binnington seems like he could have an inside track to starter status in Game 1. The winning pedigree and decent performances run in tandem with his relationship to his St. Louis Blues GM, Doug Armstrong, who will be GM of Canada's Olympic team and is also involved in 4 Nations roster selection.

If Armstrong and Canadian GM Don Sweeney want to select based on current stats, they shouldn't overlook Cam Talbot. Now 37, Talbot has improved on the numbers that earned him an All-Star game invite with the Los Angeles Kings last year. He has a 3-1-1 record and .923 save percentage with the Detroit Red Wings.

Team USA's situation illustrates how November stats might not dictate a February starter in the short 4 Nations tournament. After missing training camp during his contract stalemate with the Boston Bruins, Jeremy Swayman's save percentage currently sits at .884. On paper, Connor Hellebuyck and Jake Oettinger are better options right now —but so are Jonathan Quick, with two games played, and Casey DeSmith, at four games.

Selecting three goalies for a roster is one thing. Determining a starter for Game 1 levels up the degree of difficulty considerably.

For Sweden, Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark are the front-runners for the starting job, and both are above .900 so far this season. But what does that mean for Filip Gustavsson, who's rocking a .919 for the red-hot Minnesota Wild, or even Chicago's Arvid Soderblom, at .911 in two starts?

Finland's situation is also interesting. Juuse Saros was the only goalie named among the original Top Six for a 4 Nations roster. But along with the rest of the Nashville Predators, he has struggled out of the gate — with a 3-5-1 record, but back at a .900 save percentage following the Preds' 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday.

It's hard to imagine the Finns going with anyone other than Saros in their 4 Nations opener against Team USA on Feb. 13. But if the Finnish brain trust does get swayed at all by statistics, it could consider Vancouver's Kevin Lankinen, who remains unbeaten in regulation with his new team, or even Pittsburgh's upstart stopper Joel Blomqvist, the 22-year-old who's sitting at a tidy 2.2 goals saved above expected.

Right now, there are two key ideas to consider when discussing Canada's goaltending options:

First: a save percentage near or below .900 isn't the kiss of death that it once was, in today's goaltending landscape. Second: a lot can still change between the announcement of the final 4 Nations roster on Dec. 2, and the puck drop for Game 1 on Feb. 12, 2025.

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