Yahoo Sports Sam Darnold 2025 contract projection: How much will QB potentially make in free agency?
The Minnesota Vikings made two quarterback moves in the 2024 NFL offseason to restock their room after the departure of Kirk Cousins.
The one that got the most fanfare was the team's decision to draft Michigan starter J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall selection in the 2024 NFL draft.
The one that has played the biggest part in Minnesota's excellent season was the signing of Sam Darnold.
The Vikings inked Darnold to a short-term deal during the offseason that many anticipated would make him the team's bridge quarterback. Once they selected McCarthy, many wondered exactly how long Darnold would be the team's starter – if he even started at all in 2024.
A preseason knee injury for McCarthy ensured Darnold would be the team's No. 1 quarterback. He has thrived in that role and appears to have finally unlocked the talent that made him the No. 3 pick in the 2018 NFL draft while operating in Kevin O'Connell's system.
Darnold is slated to be a free agent again once the 2024 NFL season ends. What type of deal will he get on the open market? USA TODAY evaluates his future earnings while looking at the NFL's developing middle class of quarterbacks.
TRAVIS HUNTER'S BEST NFL POSITION: Charles Woodson says play him on defense
Sam Darnold contract details
Darnold signed a one-year deal with the Vikings in free agency. Below are the terms of the deal, per Spotrac.com.
Term: 1 year
Total value: $10 million
Average annual value (AAV): $10 million
Guaranteed money: $8.75 million
Darnold's deal also contains four void years, which lowered his cap hit to $5 million in 2024. He will count $5 million against the Vikings' salary cap in 2025 even if he doesn't return to the team because of that accounting mechanism.
Darnold's contract ranks 21st among quarterbacks in AAV and tied for 37th in overall value. He is likely due a substantial raise based on his play in 2024.
Sam Darnold stats
Darnold has been a top-10 NFL quarterback in 2024 by most metrics. Below is a look at his stats and where they ranked compared to the rest of the NFL entering Week 15.
Completion percentage: 68.4% (7th)
Passing yards: 3,299 (6th)
Passing TDs: 28 (T-3rd)
INTs: 10 (T-6th)
Yards/attempt: 8.5 (4th)
Passer rating: 108.1 (3rd)
QBR: 59.0 (15th)
PFF grade: 86.4 (6th of 40 qualified QBs)
Darnold also ranked sixth in MVP odds coming into Week 15, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. That will only further justify that the former No. 3 overall pick deserves a lucrative contract extension.
The only question is how much a raise he will get.
SAM DARNOLD: QB is finally getting support he needs as he boosts Vikings
Sam Darnold contract projection
As good as Darnold has been in 2024, it's hard to imagine him commanding a top-dollar deal. Although he has enjoyed a great season, it came deep into his NFL career and his fourth franchise.
As such, any team inking Darnold to a contract will want to ensure they are protected from any potential regression. That makes Darnold more likely to sign a short-term deal, a prospect to which he should be open, as it would allow the 27-year-old another chance to cash in should he continue to progress in the prime of his career.
With that in mind, there are two contracts on which Darnold could base his potential deal. The first is his best comparison, Baker Mayfield.
Like Darnold, Mayfield was a top selection in the 2018 NFL Draft class who flopped with the team that drafted him and eventually languished with the Carolina Panthers. It took Mayfield to his fourth franchise, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to find his success, and he turned his one-year trial run into a three-year deal worth up to $100 million.
Below are the terms of Mayfield's contract in Tampa Bay:
Baker Mayfield contract details
Term: 3 years
Total value: $100 million
Average annual value (AAV): $33.33 million
Guaranteed money: $50 million
It's easy to imagine Darnold taking a deal like that, especially if the Vikings retain an interest in him. A three-year pact of that ilk would allow Minnesota to continue working with Darnold while developing McCarthy to eventually take over the starting job in an Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love-type situation.
The other deal that should interest Darnold and his agent is Geno Smith's three-year deal with the Seattle Seahawks during the 2023 offseason. Smith was a journeyman (and a former New York Jets quarterback) before breaking out with Seattle and establishing himself as a quality starter.
Below is a look at the details of Smith's contract:
Geno Smith contract details
Term: 3 years
Total value: $75 million
Average annual value (AAV): $25 million
Guaranteed money: $40 million
The main difference with Smith is that he didn't have the same upside as Darnold. Smith was entering his age-32 season when the Seahawks pivoted to him as their starter and traded Russell Wilson. Darnold will be entering his age-28 season so that four-year gap should allow him to land something closer to Mayfield's deal – if not a bit more expensive, given the ever-rising nature of the NFL's quarterback market.
With that in mind, seeing Darnold get a deal worth $110 million over three years wouldn't be a surprise. That would be a bit more expensive than his estimated Spotrac market value of $35.7 million. Still, it is probably an accurate reflection of how a potential bidding war, however small, could inflate his costs.
OPINION: Life of an NFL 'kicker for hire' is not easy. Just look at Chiefs hero Matthew Wright.
Below is a projection of what Darnold's next contract could look like:
Sam Darnold contract projection
Term: 3 years
Total value: $110 million
Average annual value (AAV): $36.7 million
Guaranteed money: $55 million
Perhaps Darnold's value will exceed this if he has many suitors, like the Vikings, Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, among others. However, he could also see his overall value take a hit if teams picking atop the 2025 NFL Draft decide to eschew free agent quarterbacks and go after players like Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.
Regardless, Darnold's skill set should be in demand in some fashion this offseason. Whether playing for the Vikings or moving to a fifth different NFL team, he is set to cash in after a career-best season.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Sam Darnold contract projection: What QB could make as 2025 free agent
