When Will Russia Return To The World Juniors?

The IIHF held its annual world juniors press conference on the morning of the medal games, and it was a fairly standard affair.

Ottawa had proven to be a successful host, and despite Canada's early exit, ticket sales for the final games were solid. But there was still the question about Russia and Belarus, the two nations currently on pariah status with the IIHF due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Belarus' support of said invasion.

With a new president taking office in the United States, many geopolitical followers are wondering what a Trump administration would mean for Russia and Ukraine. Could it mean a ceasefire? With an Olympics around the corner in 2026, Russia naturally wants to be included and the International Olympic Committee is typically lenient with the former Soviet power, but the IIHF is its own organization.

For IIHF president Luc Tardif, peace is the first step to hockey reconciliation with Russia.

“We want them back as soon as possible," Tardif said. "Because that would mean the war is over.”

The IIHF meets in February, and that would be the opportunity for member-states to vote on whether to reinstate Russia and Belarus. Tardif said that meeting would be crucial for Olympic participation from the IIHF's perspective because the field must be established for the hockey tournament, and they want as much preparation time as possible.

Related: The Graeme Roustan Show: Luc Tardif

As for the world juniors, bringing Russia and Belarus back into the fold would be trickier for 2026, when the tournament is hosted by the U.S. in Minnesota.

Right now, the field has already been set for 2026, with Denmark getting promoted from Div. I-A and Kazakhstan relegated down from the top rung. Russia was already in the world juniors when it was expelled in 2022, while Belarus had been promoted just over a month prior after winning the Div. I-A championship but was then also expelled.

So even if the IIHF members voted to reinstate the two countries in February, you'd have 12 teams who had qualified for a 10-team tournament. At some point, a format change will be needed. Perhaps the tournament becomes a 12-team affair for one year, with a different relegation and promotion process - but that will take some big-time politicking within the IIHF. All countries involved will have their own interests to worry about, and no one wants to lose a chance to play at the world juniors because of a change in format.

In the end, however, Russia's international behavior off the ice will be the first determinant, and as Tardif pointed out in Ottawa, peace is the first step.

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