Russell Wilson is officially elite, Aaron Rodgers is officially washed and Week 14 QB ranks

The year is 2024. Russell Wilson is playing like a top 10 quarterback for a division-leading team led by one of the game's most successful head coaches.

Over the previous two seasons, those clauses seemed like either/or propositions. Wilson was a massive pickup in the Denver Broncos quest to erase a playoff drought that dates back to Peyton Manning's playing days. Instead of leading the franchise to prosperity, the Broncos wound up paying a $75 million premium just to ensure he wouldn't play for them after 2023. This led him to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who'd been a glowing sigil of mediocre quarterback play from the moment Ben Roethlisberger turned 37.

Despite this confluence, Wilson has thrived in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 9-3 and 1.5 games ahead of the Baltimore Ravens -- a team they beat in Week 11 -- in the AFC North standings. Wilson missed time to start the season, but his play has added a new dimension to the Pittsburgh offense thanks to his consistency, stability and downfield passing ability. The veteran's passer rating and yards per attempt are both the highest they've been since 2020.

That hasn't been enough to make him the NFL's best quarterback, but it puts him in the top 10 through 13 weeks. Who joins him? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 35 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 208 snaps through 13 weeks — you get a graphic that looks like this:

Welcome to the show, Cooper Rush. You're officially the only qualified quarterback less efficient than Anthony Richardson. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

A dense tier of elite

1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.176 EPA+CPOE composite

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.172

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.165

4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.165

5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.159

6. Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.157

7. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.153

This is your MVP tier, assuming Saquon Barkley doesn't run for 2,000 yards. Allen has jumped to frontrunner status even if Goff and Jackson have been technically better from a statistical standpoint. Watching him take a lateral into the end zone so he could both throw and receive a touchdown pass against the defending NFC champions in the midst of a snowstorm cements this point.

Wilson has enough pass attempts to qualify for these rankings and he arrives after a statement game. The Steelers dealt a crushing blow to Joe Burrow's playoff hopes thanks to a 414-yard, three touchdown performance in a 44-38 win in Cincinnati. Burrow had 300-plus yards and three touchdowns of his own, but it didn't matter because Lou Anarumo's defense has fallen off a cliff this fall.

The dense second class of good, occasionally great quarterbacks

8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.144 EPA+CPOE composite

9. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.136

10. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.128

11. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.126

12. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.0126

13. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.124

14. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.123

15. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.122

Since the Eagles' Week 5 bye, Hurts's 0.189 composite ranks fourth in the NFL. He's been able to do that despite injuries to his top wideouts. Combine that with a surging defense and the return of Saquon Barkley's superhero cape and Philadelphia looks like a real problem for the rest of the NFC.

Mahomes continues to languish as his team finds new ways to escape with close wins over division rivals. It was a blocked field goal vs. the Broncos and then, in Week 13, a botched snap from Raiders rookie Jackson Powers-Johnson. Murray couldn't engineer a comeback drive vs. the Vikings, but continues to play up to the contract extension he signed in 2022. Love continues to teeter on the brink of trustability, buoyed by the fact he hasn't thrown an interception in either of his last two games.

Guys you sorta trust

16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.103 EPA+CPOE composite

17. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.099

18. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.098

19. Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns: 0.082

20. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.080

21. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.075

Herbert has been having a much better season than his composite suggests, even if he was drab against the Falcons (and forced to funnel nearly 80 percent of his passing offense through Ladd McConkey). He won in Week 13 because Cousins tossed four interceptions, including a pick-six that generated nearly half Los Angeles's points in a 17-13 loss.

Winston had arguably the most Jameis Winston game of his career, throwing four touchdowns to the Browns and two to the Broncos in a 41-32 Monday Night Football loss. Despite being a perpetual risk to score points for the opponent, he remains a significantly better quarterback option than Aaron Rodgers in 2024.

The capacity to be so much more

22. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.070 EPA+CPOE composite

23. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.061

24. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.060

25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.053

26. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

27. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.048

28. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.046

"Aaron Rodgers and C.J. Stroud are roughly similar" seems like the kind of connection both Texans and Jets fans would have loved heading into the 2024 season. Instead, Rodgers has doomed New York to a ninth-straight losing season and Stroud has vacated the momentum he carried into year two after thriving as a rookie.

Nix and Maye, on the other hand, have provided optimism in heaps for their respective teams. That hasn't led to wins for a talent-starved Patriots roster, but the higher next spring's draft pick is, the better. Nix has Denver on pace for its first playoff appearance since Manning won his last Super Bowl thanks to nifty throws on the run and a directive to throw deep.

We expected better (and some of you are beginning to deliver)

29. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.036 EPA+CPOE composite

30. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.035

31. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.033

32. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.020

33. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

Williams and Young are both trending upward. Young is a fumble and field goal away from a potential four-game winning streak, which is faint praise but GOOD GOD have you seen the Panthers the last two seasons? That's a big deal. Williams has thrived under interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, who is now his interim head coach. He may only get better from here.

Oh no

34. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.018 EPA+CPOE composite

35. Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys: -0.027

The good news is both these quarterbacks are capable of competence. Richardson can occasionally scrape the face of greatness. But for the most part they've been frustrating -- some of the blame can be placed on them and some on the lack of help around them. The good news: there's nowhere to go but up.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Russell Wilson is officially elite, Aaron Rodgers is officially washed and Week 14 QB ranks