Reviewing our too-early Top 25 college football predictions for 2024. There were hits and misses

The USA TODAY Sports way-too-early Top 25 for the 2024 season was released last January in the tight window between two major events: Michigan’s win against Washington for the national championship and Nick Saban’s retirement from Alabama.

That’s why we had the Crimson Tide ranked No. 2 in our early lookahead. Why would we pick against the greatest coach in college football history? As for the defending national champions, former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh had yet to officially leave for the Los Angeles Chargers and starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy was days away from declaring for the NFL draft. We ranked the Wolverines No. 3 in our projection, which also made sense.

At least we have excuses for those two misses. Looking back at our way-too-early list shows some major errors in judgment, from oversize optimism in teams such as LSU, Oklahoma and Virginia Tech through the general undervaluing of the Big Ten.

Our way-too-early Top 25 for the 2025 season will be released after Monday night’s championship game between Notre Dame and Ohio State. Before looking ahead, let’s look back at last year’s list to see which teams we got right, which we got went wrong and which we got very, very wrong:

Nailed it!

No. 4 Texas (13-3)

This is right around where Texas will land in the final US LBM Coaches Poll after coming in second in the SEC and winning a pair of College Football Playoff games before losing to the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl. While the Longhorns maximized a relatively easy schedule, this team met expectations by making the national semifinals for the second year in a row.

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No. 11 Clemson (10-4)

Clemson won the ACC, as we predicted, before losing to Texas in the opening round of the playoff. It wasn't a particularly pretty season for the Tigers. They were blown out by Georgia in the opener and lost convincingly Louisville at home. But they managed to get into the conference title game when Miami fell to Syracuse in Week 14 and took advantage by beating SMU.

No. 23 Memphis (11-2)

Memphis didn’t end up as the best team in the Group of Five — we didn’t have Boise State ranked — but will end up in this range in the Coaches Poll after closing out the year with wins against Tulane and West Virginia.

Not too bad, honestly

No. 1 Georgia (11-3)

OK, so Georgia didn’t reclaim the national championship or even win a playoff game, ending the year with a loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. But the Bulldogs did win the SEC, beating Texas twice along the way, and might have advanced deeper into the playoff had starting quarterback Carson Beck not suffered a season-ending injury in the conference championship game.

No. 6 Notre Dame (14-1*)

We were largely on the mark with the Fighting Irish, writing that the offseason additions of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and quarterback Riley Leonard “make the Fighting Irish one of the leading contenders for the playoff.” They had an awful loss to Northern Illinois but haven't lost since and are one win from their first title since 1988.

No. 7 Oregon (13-1)

The good news: Oregon was picked second in the Big Ten, behind only Michigan. The Ducks closed the regular season as the only unbeaten team in the Bowl Subdivision. The bad news: We had the eventual Big Ten winner all the way down at No. 7, greatly underestimating how powerful the Ducks and the league would be in 2024.

No. 12 Tennessee (10-3)

This is close to accurate for the Volunteers in terms of their final ranking. But our Top 25 had Tennessee ranked as the seventh-best team in the SEC, which qualifies as a miss. The Volunteers beat Alabama and made the playoff, but failed to make an impression against Ohio State.

No. 14 Missouri (10-3)

We were a little bit too bullish on Missouri. The Tigers’ only win against a Power Four opponent with more than seven wins came against Iowa in the Music City Bowl. They survived close games against Vanderbilt, Auburn and Oklahoma at home to get to double-digit wins.

Close, but still off the mark

No. 5 Mississippi (10-3)

Hard-to-believe losses to Kentucky and Florida cost the Rebels a playoff berth and the chance for the program’s first top-five finish in over 60 years. But our hearts were in the right place — this might have been the best team in the SEC when everything was clicking. Sadly, that didn't happen often enough.

No. 9 Ohio State (14-2*)

The Buckeyes and Penn State were extremely undervalued as part of our overall misfire with Big Ten. Ohio State did finish the regular season ranked No. 7 in the Coaches Poll, though, before turning in a dominant run to Monday’s championship game.

No. 15 Penn State (13-3)

This was about a 10-spot miss on the Nittany Lions. “If all goes right, Penn State could win the Big Ten or at least land an at-large playoff bid,” we wrote, with questions about the health of the offensive line and whether Drew Allar would take a step forward under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.

No. 24 Iowa (8-5)

Iowa won’t finish in the Top 25 after the bowl loss to Missouri. But the Hawkeyes lost to Iowa State by a point and UCLA by a field goal, so they were close to justifying this ranking and even factoring into the at-large playoff picture.

We have excuses

No. 2 Alabama (9-4)

Alabama dropped down the SEC standings under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide’s season was defined by losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma during the regular season and to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

No. 3 Michigan (8-5)

Losing Harbaugh, McCarthy and a slew of high-profile contributors in the wake of the championship game doomed Michigan’s chances of a repeat under new coach Sherrone Moore. But the Wolverines closed with wins against Ohio State and the Tide to regain some momentum and could finish in the Top 25.

No. 17 Washington (6-7)

Given the exodus of talent after the loss to Michigan, we should’ve been much more cynical about Washington’s chances at succeeding as new members of the Big Ten. In our defense, DeBoer was expected to return with the Huskies in 2024. We wrote, “based on his track record, it seems very unlikely that Washington drops off the national map.”

No. 22 Kansas (5-7)

One of a whopping nine teams in our early Top 25 to finish with a losing record, Kansas had five losses by single digits and won three games in a row against ranked competition in November. In other words, the Jayhawks were very close to being the team we expected last January.

What were we thinking?

No. 8 Oklahoma (6-7)

Here’s where things start getting ugly. When it comes to Oklahoma, we said the play of quarterback Jackson Arnold and the offensive line “will determine if this team can be in the playoff mix.” Neither panned out, and the offense was miserable. Watching Texas hit the ground running in the SEC made things even worse. The only saving grace was a defeat of Alabama that allowed the Sooners to extend their bowl streak to 26 consecutive seasons, though that resulted in a bad loss to Navy.

No. 10 LSU (9-4)

Hyped as a major contender in coach Brian Kelly’s third year with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier taking over for Jayden Daniels, LSU lost to Southern California in the opener and then dropped three in a row to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida to disappear from the playoff picture.

No. 16 Utah (5-7)

Injuries played a role, especially at quarterback with Cam Rising expected back at full health. That didn't happen. And after a 4-0 start, the Utes lost seven in a row, ending the year tied for second to last in the Big 12 and suffering the program’s first losing finish since 2013.

No. 19 Southern California (7-6)

USC never found a rhythm as new members of the Big Ten and barely sneaked into the postseason after losing close games to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington. Overrating the Trojans is a habit we plan on breaking with our way-too-early list for 2025.

No. 21 North Carolina State (6-7)

While overshadowed by other ACC flops such as Florida State, Virginia Tech and North Carolina, N.C. State should be counted among the biggest disappointments in the Power Four. Hampered by injury issues, the Wolfpack were blown out by Tennessee early and lost four games by a single possession.

No. 25 Virginia Tech (6-7)

The program’s expected breakthrough never came to fruition. At least the Hokies were competitive in every loss, with only the defeat to Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl coming by more than 10 points.

We really messed up

No. 13 Arizona (4-8)

Coach Jedd Fisch would eventually replace DeBoer at Washington. At the time, though, Arizona was seen as the early favorite in the remade Big 12. While the coaching change and player departures played a role, we were clearly way off about the Wildcats.

No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-9)

Oklahoma State went unbeaten in non-conference play and then wouldn’t win again, finishing dead last in the Big 12 and nearly leading to the end of coach Mike Gundy’s tenure. Don’t look for the Cowboys to get the benefit of the doubt in the future.

Florida State division

No. 18 Florida State (2-10)

The Seminoles are in a class by themselves. Do we get any credit for having them No. 18, lower than most way-too-early lists? Nope. FSU will go down not just as the biggest disappointment of the 2024 season but as one of the biggest duds of the era.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football too-early Top 25 predictions had hits and misses