Newcastle’s Potential Acquisition of Marc Guehi: A Detailed Analysis

What’s Been Said

David Ornstein of The Athletic reports that Newcastle United has initiated negotiations with Crystal Palace to sign Marc Guehi. Described as one of the Premier League’s leading defenders, the 24-year-old is highly sought after by several top European clubs. However, Newcastle appears to be leading the race to secure his signature, potentially marking a significant coup for Eddie Howe’s side.

Ornstein mentions, “Palace received Newcastle’s approach this week and if agreements can be reached it will give Eddie Howe’s men a huge lift ahead of the new season.” Newcastle’s interest in Guehi underscores their ambition to bolster their defensive line, which could dramatically enhance their competitive edge in the Premier League.

The Key Stats

Marc Guehi, currently at Crystal Palace, has made 29 appearances in the 2023-24 season across all competitions, including the Premier League, FA Cup, and EFL Cup. Standing at 1.82 meters, Guehi is a formidable presence in the backline. His performances for England at the Euro 2024 further cemented his reputation, as he started in six out of seven games for the national team. Despite missing the quarter-final win over Switzerland due to suspension, his contributions were pivotal.

Detailed stats from Transfermarkt reveal:

• Age: 24

• Position: Centre-back

• Minutes in all competitions: 2254

• Height: 1.82m

Guehi has demonstrated his prowess defensively and his capability to perform under pressure, arguably being one of England’s standout players. His current market value is estimated at €38 million, reflecting his rising stock in the football world.

Compare To

If Guehi were to join Newcastle, he would likely replace Fabian Schär, another accomplished defender. When comparing their statistics, Guehi’s defensive metrics are impressive. Guehi boasts a tackle success rate (Tkl%) of 58.3% compared to Schär’s 45.0%, which is noticeable. However, in aerial duels, Guehi’s success rate stands at 50.0%, which, while respectable, is an area that could be seen as a slight vulnerability for a player commanding a significant transfer fee.

Fabian Schär’s aerial duel success is minimally lower at 49.6%, and while Guehi has enjoyed a stellar Euro 2024, his lower aerial duel success rate could raise concerns. This comparison highlights both players’ strengths and potential areas of improvement, offering a comprehensive view of what Guehi might bring to Newcastle’s defense.

Likelihood and Fee

Marc Guehi’s transfer to Newcastle is currently in the discussion phase, with significant negotiations expected to follow. His contract with Crystal Palace runs until June 30, 2026, and his market valuation stands at €38 million as per Transfermarkt. However, some reports suggest that Palace might entertain offers around £70 million, reflecting his high demand and potential impact.

David Ornstein hints at the complexities involved, stating, “Guehi’s contract at Selhurst Park expires in 2026 and so far there has been no sign of him extending those terms, which may encourage Palace to entertain a sale now.” Given the lack of contract renewal, Palace might be more inclined to negotiate, especially if the price is right. Newcastle’s pursuit of Guehi aligns with their strategy to strengthen their squad comprehensively. Should the deal materialise, it would significantly bolster their defence, providing Eddie Howe with a reliable and talented centre-back to enhance their Premier League campaign.

Statistical Analysis by EPL Index

Marc Guehi has emerged as one of the Premier League’s most intriguing defensive talents. His statistical profile, as presented by Fbref, offers a compelling insight into his strengths and areas for potential growth.

Marc Guehi’s Defensive Contributions

Guehi’s defensive metrics reveal a player who doesn’t perhaps excel statistically. With an tackle success rate of 75% and 1.25 tackles per 90 minutes, Guehi has demonstrated his ability to halt opponents. Although his interception rate is on the lower end at 0.80 per 90 minutes, this could suggest his strategic positioning often negates the need for such interventions. Additionally, his clearance rate of 3.96 per 90 minutes, placing him in the 52nd percentile.

Possession and Passing Stats

Guehi’s passing statistics offer a nuanced view of his role in Crystal Palace’s build-up play. With a pass completion rate of 86.9%, placing him in the 59th percentile, Guehi demonstrates a solid ability to retain possession under pressure. His 2.98 progressive passes per 90 minutes (38th percentile) and 0.67 progressive carries (55th percentile) indicate his willingness to advance the ball, though there is room for development in these areas.

Guehi’s Attacking Contributions

While primarily a defender, Guehi’s attacking contributions, though limited, should not be overlooked. His assists per 90 minutes are in the 77th percentile, highlighting his potential to contribute to the attack, albeit sparingly. His expected assisted goals (xAG) per 90 minutes stands at 0.03, placing him in the 60th percentile, further indicating a capacity to influence play in advanced positions.

Overall, Marc Guehi’s performance data and stats don’t jump off the page but we must remember the Palace defender had an injury hit period during this 365 day spell. The club also went through a transformation in styles as Palace went from ‘old school’ Roy Hodgson to Oliver Glasner.