Julian Alvarez Transfer Uncertainty: Man City’s Tricky Decision

Julian Alvarez, Manchester City’s talented forward, finds himself at a crossroads. With an illustrious career already, Alvarez’s value has skyrocketed, but his future at City remains uncertain.

Alvarez’s Rising Value

At just 24, Julian Alvarez is one of the most valuable footballers globally. “At the age of 24, and with three years left on his contract, at the end of May this year Alvarez was valued by the CIES Football Observatory at £141m – more than 10 times what City paid for him two years ago.” His success on the field, including his contributions to the Argentine national team, underscores his immense talent and potential.

However, Alvarez’s primary challenge lies in his competition with Erling Haaland for the coveted No.9 position at City. Haaland, often regarded as the best No.9 in the world, is typically Pep Guardiola’s first choice, making it difficult for Alvarez to secure his preferred spot.

Interest from Atletico Madrid

The situation is further complicated by interest from Atletico Madrid. According to MEN, “Atletico Madrid are said to be interested in offering the forward a bigger opportunity to shine.” This interest poses a significant dilemma for both Alvarez and City. While City is open to players leaving, they are adamant about not letting them go cheaply, especially to rivals.

City’s approach is clear: if Alvarez wants to leave, he must convince Atletico of his worth, similar to how Ferran Torres secured his move to Barcelona. This means Atletico must be prepared to invest significantly to secure Alvarez’s services.

Guardiola’s Dilemma

Pep Guardiola faces a tricky decision. Alvarez is highly valued by Guardiola, as evidenced by his frequent use even when Haaland is fit. “He is clearly rated highly by Guardiola to be used so much – even when Haaland is fit – but at the same time he has not done enough for much of the fanbase to consider him invaluable.” This statement reflects the duality of Alvarez’s position at City—crucial yet replaceable.

City must also consider potential replacements should Alvarez decide to leave. Making a healthy profit on his transfer would allow the club to cast a wider net in search of a suitable replacement. However, the process is not straightforward, and Guardiola does not want any player in his squad who is not fully committed to being there.

The Future for Alvarez and City

The question remains: how valuable is Alvarez to City? While his desire to leave is understandable, City must weigh the potential loss against the benefits of retaining such a talented player. Alvarez will not be pushed out of the club, but he must demonstrate his commitment to stay and continue contributing to the team’s success.

Statistical Analysis by EPL Index

Julian Alvarez Performance Data Overview

Julian Alvarez’s performance data, sourced from Fbref, provides a compelling insight into his capabilities on the pitch. The data over the last 365 days illustrates Alvarez’s proficiency in various aspects of the game, painting a picture of a versatile and effective forward.

Attacking Prowess

Alvarez’s attacking statistics are particularly noteworthy. He averages 0.43 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, placing him in the 62nd percentile. His non-penalty expected goals (npxG) stand at 0.41, which is in the 60th percentile. This suggests a solid goal-scoring ability, further highlighted by his total shots per 90 minutes being at an impressive 3.41, ranking him in the 84th percentile. Moreover, Alvarez excels in expected assisted goals (xAG), with a rate of 0.24 per 90 minutes, placing him in the 92nd percentile, demonstrating his capacity to create goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates.

Playmaking and Possession

Alvarez’s playmaking skills are exceptional. He records 4.46 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes, which puts him in the 97th percentile, reflecting his ability to generate scoring chances consistently. His passing statistics are equally impressive, with 44.31 passes attempted per 90 minutes (99th percentile) and a pass completion rate of 81% (95th percentile). His proficiency in progressing the ball is evident with 3.75 progressive passes and 2.76 progressive carries per 90 minutes, ranking in 92nd & 84th percentile. These stats indicate Alvarez’s crucial role in advancing play and maintaining possession.

Defensive Contributions

While Alvarez’s primary contributions lie in attack and playmaking, his defensive stats show room for improvement. He averages 0.83 tackles per 90 minutes, placing him in the 63rd percentile. However, his aerial prowess is limited, winning just 0.05 aerial duels per 90 minutes, which is in the 4th percentile. These figures suggest that while Alvarez is a formidable offensive player, his defensive contributions are less pronounced.

In summary, Julian Alvarez’s performance data, as illustrated by Fbref, underscores his attacking and playmaking strengths while highlighting areas for potential improvement in defense. This comprehensive statistical analysis reaffirms Alvarez’s value and potential in contributing to Manchester City’s success.