Don't bet on rookie receivers in your fantasy draft when veterans offer value

Wide receiver is the way you slay your opponents in Points Per Reception leagues. It’s not the running back position anymore. And some tight ends are wide receiver-esque and essentially give you another high-upside weapon. So let’s look for value by projecting last year into this year in two key areas: the seemingly transformed value of rookie wide receivers and the most and least effective receivers (including tight ends) in the context of their teams.

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Was last year’s electrifying crop of rookie wideouts the signal that rookies now come into the league pro-ready and thus able to make a fantasy impact right out of the gate? I’m reminded of the 2013 offseason where we were told that the performance of the rookie quarterbacks in 2012, when three (Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck) instantly became viable fantasy options, was sold as the new normal. When it didn’t happen in 2013, that was blamed on a poor rookie class. But last year, two highly-regarded prospects, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel also were terrible. So now people view that 2012 class an an outlier.

You see where I’m going here, right? Yes, recent classes of rookie receivers have been top performing in the context of the low-expectations of rookie-wideout classes. But I can’t bet a trend here.  Given the questions surrounding his quarterback, Amari Cooper is coming off the board way too high with the experts as the 50th overall pick. Ditto Nelson Agholor at 91 overall. Then we have Breshad Perriman at WR42 and pick 110. That seems ho-hum until you realize that Eric Decker, who will be a top 20 fantasy receiver, is WR43, pick 115. I don’t see how the people who move on these rookies early are getting better odds of having a solid starter than the people who wait all the way to WR55, pick 179 — Doriel Green-Beckham. I’ll pay a buck for a lottery ticket, not $5 or $10 bucks. Bottom line, calm down on the rookies, who are all very likely to again be ho-hum.

Decker transitions us to our main receiver stat this draft season, which is relative yards per target. It’s devilishly simple but so obviously valuable in assessing skill level. The receivers needed 50 targets, and I’ve included tight ends even though they will get their own feature later in August. We first calculate how many yards they averaged on all their targets (receiving yards divided by times thrown to) and then we subtracted from that the team yards per target (also known as yards per pass attempt). Then we just ordered the 50-plus-target receivers (including tight ends) from best to worst in the margin of difference (their yards per target subtracted by the team’s yards per target).

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Here’s the full list: I’ve pulled the top 25 here — all the receivers at plus-1.5 yards per target relative to their team average. But I mostly want to focus on the 11 receivers who beat their team averages by two yards or more because there are a few sleepers on the list who are not getting nearly enough ADP respect.

DeSean Jackson crushes this list. Yet he’s WR19 now in expert ADP behind Andre Johnson, who ranks a terrible 93rd of 111 at MINUS-0.7 yards. You all know based on my work here and incessant tweeting (@michaelsalfino) that I am onTeam Big WR. But Jackson is a dynamo who does not seem to be coverable. He doesn’t need many targets to do a lot of fantasy damage. The zeroRB guys can get him as their fourth wide receiver on average. Sign me up.

Kenny Stills has switched teams but you can’t say, “He’s only good because of Brees” when he was so much better than the Saints’ average. Talk about no respect. Stills, despite this incredible efficiency, is a Gil Brandt pocket pick at WR61 (you can keep him in your pocket knowing you’ll get him in the last rounds).

Yeah, you want Travis Kelce, who posted a monster tight end number. His was nearly twice as good as Rob Gronkowski’s relative yards per target. And forget about Jimmy Graham (86th at minus-0.4), inefficient by this metric. Kelce should be the second tight end in every draft. Graham? He should be ignored and made someone else’s problem given where he’s coming off the board (28th overall or 26 spots ahead of the far superior Kelce).

Jarius Wright and Decker are the other big bargains on this list. Wright has unclear playing time but if the Vikings are aware of this, and how could they NOT be, Wright is going to get a lot of snaps. Wright is not even ranked.

Decker we know is going to start but there is concern that Brandon Marshall is going to usurp him as a No. 1 target. I see little chance of that given their relative efficiency numbers in their team context. Decker is elite. Marshall? Ho-hum at plus-0.2 (67th of 111).

Betting on a Vernon Davis reboot? Well, he’s 110th. Throwing to Davis last year was like putting the team in reverse. Davante Adams seems like a poor bet for Packer snaps given he was 107. Take his teammate Jeff Janis late if you are in a dynasty league — he’s bigger and faster. Also ignore Roddy White (84th) and forget the buzz about John Brown (85th) and Michael Crabtree (89th). Vincent Jackson (65th) seems done (Mike Evans was 14th). It bothers me to say that Emmanuel Sanders was so much better than personal favorite Demaryius Thomas (45th), but facts cannot be denied. Finally, the Allen Robinson buzz? I’ll pass, thank you. He was 54th and the quarterback, Bortles, may just be bad.