Is this really NC State football’s year? This, and other questions facing Triangle teams

Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State have combined for 340 college football seasons among them, and all have competed in the sport for at least the past 102 years (for Duke, and since 1902 for both UNC and N.C. State). And yet it took that long for all three Triangle schools to reach a sustained level of success the past two seasons that they’d never collectively achieved.

Indeed, the 2022 and ‘23 seasons were the first — ever! — in which Duke, Carolina and State all won at least eight games in consecutive seasons. There have been far better seasons than the past two for all three schools, individually. And far better stretches, at times, for two of them at the same time (in the 1930s and ‘40s, for instance, Duke and UNC were something like national powers).

Until last year, though, the three of them together had never won eight games in consecutive seasons. It took more than 100 years for it to happen — a rare breakthrough that underscores just how difficult it has been for Duke, Carolina and State to maintain a level of quality competitiveness at the same time.

It should be noted that it used to be more difficult for college football teams to achieve eight victories, back when they played fewer games. Still, 12-game regular seasons — and bloated postseasons, with bowl games galore — have been the standard now for decades. And even so: the Triangle schools have still labored in their endless quest for football ascension.

The past two seasons are a start, but Florida of the 1980s and ‘90s this is not. Back then, Florida, Florida State and Miami seemed to surpass the eight-win mark every year, usually by late October. As Mack Brown might say, though (and he did say something similar about his own team last November, to the chagrin of UNC fans), eight (or nine) wins is pretty good around here.

The question, now, for State, UNC and Duke: After reaching a certain level of collective football decency, can they each do their part to make success more the norm instead of an outlier? All three recently began preseason practice. After arguably the best collective college football season in modern Triangle history, here’s a look at the most interesting question facing each program:

Is this the year N.C. State breaks through under Dave Doeren?

A few facts about N.C. State football — one positive and the other two not so much:

▪ The Wolfpack hasn’t won the ACC since 1979.

▪ The past five times State has started a season ranked in the Associated Press poll, it has finished unranked.

▪ The past nine times State has finished a season among the final AP top 25, it did so after starting the season unranked.

What does this tell us?

For one, that it’s been a long time — 45 years! — since the Wolfpack won a conference championship. But also, that there’s a reason behind the old adage that has long surrounded State football (and N.C. State athletics at large, until recently), that the Wolfpack delivers the most when the least is expected, and the least when the most is expected.

Now, all the history doesn’t mean anything for this particular N.C. State team. Still, old habits die hard, and the Wolfpack will indeed likely start this season in the top 25, and as a trendy pick to contend for an ACC championship. The last time that happened was all the way back in ... 2022. So, OK, not that long ago.

That State team, which entered the season ranked 13th, did not live up to the hype. And if this one doesn’t, it’s going to be fair to wonder whether a breakthrough will ever happen under Dave Doeren, who’s entering his 12th season. Doeren deserves a lot of credit for establishing a culture and identity.

Rival fans can mock him, and his program, for the “hand in the dirt” talk; for the blue collar persona. But there is indeed a toughness and grit there that has served the Wolfpack well, and State has clearly established itself as the best college football program in North Carolina.

Now, though, the bar is raised. Doeren alluded to that during the ACC’s annual preseason media days, when he essentially said that good is no longer good enough. His teams have won at least eight games in six of the past seven seasons, and has won nine in four of those. But State hasn’t won 10 games since 2002, and has never appeared in the ACC Championship Game, let alone won it.

If not now, when?

Doeren and the folks in charge of the NIL money at State revamped the roster after last season, especially on offense. They landed one of the best quarterbacks in the transfer portal in Grayson McCall, rebuilt the skill positions with the additions of Noah Rogers and Jordan Waters, among others, and returned enough on defense to expect not much of a decline there despite the enormous loss of Payton Wilson. And, oh yes: the schedule is especially favorable, too.

If N.C. State is ever going to break through under Doeren, it has to happen now. He has embraced the increased expectations. He has talked openly about the goal of winning a championship. In this year of the Wolfpack — with two Final Fours and the baseball team reaching Omaha and the College World Series — the stage is set for State football in a way like it never has been.

Can Mack Brown rediscover mojo, reestablish momentum at UNC?

One of the questions that now surrounds N.C. State — if not now, when? — is the same one that surrounded the Tar Heels a year ago. UNC entered 2023 with Drake Maye at quarterback, and an enviable supporting cast on offense. The defense had to be better, or so the thought went. And there was no way UNC would start fast only to fade late.

Right? Right!?

Well, so much for that. Maye was solid enough on his way to becoming the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and Omarion Hampton became a star at running back, but pretty much everything else was a disappointment. The defense was bad, again. The Tar Heels fell apart during the second half of the season, again. They lost to N.C. State, again.

And now UNC enters a season with the least amount of buzz and expectations since ... when, exactly? It certainly hasn’t been this quiet around this program since Brown returned as head coach in late 2018, talking the talk about leading a resurgence and guiding the Tar Heels back to where they were during the mid-1990s heyday of his first UNC tenure.

Brown, for one, has welcomed the lack of attention. And maybe it’s a good thing. He acknowledged recently the inability of his teams to handle expectations and pressure throughout the past five seasons. In four of those, the Tar Heels have climbed as high as No. 13 nationally, only to finish ranked a single time (in 2020).

The past three seasons, especially, have followed a familiar script of raising hope while looking poised for a breakthrough, only to set up spectacular disappointment. With Sam Howell and Maye, UNC has had two of the best quarterbacks in school history for the past five seasons, with little to show for it. Equally worse, the recruiting success that generated so much hype early in Brown’s return hasn’t often translated to much of anything on the field.

Perhaps UNC surprises this season. There’s talent there, allegedly — at least based on recruiting rankings. The defense can’t possibly be worse under new coordinator Geoff Collins (though, we’ve been saying similar things about UNC defenses the past few years). Hampton is as good of a running back as any, nationally.

Still, there’s getting to be a bit of a “late-stage Bobby Bowden at Florida State” vibe here — without the preceding dynasty with the national championships and more than a decade’s worth of top-5 finishes. Brown re-energized the program and pulled it out of the depths when he came back, and he has bristled over concerns about his age (he’ll turn 73 later this month).

Clearly, he still believes he can guide UNC back to where it was in the ‘90s, and where he talked about leading it upon his return. But can he? The next four months will go a long way toward providing a definitive answer.

What becomes of Duke after the departure of Mike Elko?

Imagine, for a moment, what might’ve been if Duke could have found a way to keep Elko as its head coach. There was a time, however brief, when it was fair to wonder. Elko appeared legitimately happy during his two seasons in Durham. It looked as though he was building something that could last. There were glimpses of what Duke football could be, with the right coach and support.

At one point last season, it didn’t even feel all that far-fetched to wonder whether Elko could become the football version of Coach K: a gifted leader and motivator who decided to build a foundation and stay, despite lucrative opportunities to go elsewhere. Now, granted: Duke football of the 2020s doesn’t have the cache or history of Duke basketball of the early 1980s.

But still: Elko showed what could be possible.

And then he left for Texas A&M and tens of millions of dollars ($42 million over six years, reportedly). The good news for Duke is Elko proved (like David Cutcliffe before him, in the first half of Cutcliffe’s tenure) that the school can be relevant in football with the right coach. That was in doubt for a long time, throughout decades of futility.

The bad news is that it’s really hard to find the right coach. That’s true for programs with rich pedigrees. It’s especially true at places like Duke, which aspire to balance the elite academic reputation of the university with the pursuit of excellence in athletics.

Cutcliffe found a way to win in Durham. So did Elko.

Has Duke made its third consecutive strong hire, in Manny Diaz? That’s the hope, at least. Diaz went 21-15 in three seasons at Miami, with considerably more talent and historical advantages than he’ll have at Duke. The flipside of that: the Blue Devils aren’t burdened by whatever toxicity has contributed to 20 years of underachievement at Miami.

The Hurricanes, for whatever reason, have failed to fulfill their potential under coaching staff after coaching staff. They are routinely among the most disappointing teams in the country, year after year. Diaz will face a lot less pressure at Duke, but the stakes are still high. In this evolving and off-the-deep-end environment in college athletics, every school must wrestle with the question of how all-in it wants to go on football, which is clearly the economic engine of major college sports.

All indications are that Duke is all in. It has upgraded Wallace Wade Stadium several times over in recent years. It has made a push for more fan support, and tried to create more of an environment at home games. It has tried to shed the perception, however inaccurate it might be, that it only cares about the one sport it’s most known for. And all of those things are well and good, but they don’t matter much without a football program that is competitive.

A year ago, and especially after opening the season with a nationally-televised victory against Clemson, Duke football appeared on the ascent. Even with a coaching change, it can’t afford to take much of a step back.