What Real Madrid, Girona, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid need in the Champions League

Halfway through the penultimate round of the Champions League group phase, for the first time in a league format containing 36 teams, the qualification equations are finally beginning to take shape. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona made significant progress with their wins, while Real Madrid will be confident and Girona praying for a miracle.

Barcelona currently sit in second place in the table, only behind Liverpool, whose perfect record has them three points in front of the Catalans. Qualification directly into the Round of 16 is assured for Hansi Flick’s side after victory over Benfica, and they would need a win over Atalanta on the final day coupled with a Liverpool loss at PSV Eindhoven to finish first.

Nevertheless, their priority will be to avoid dropping down below second spot. Atletico, Arsenal, Inter, Bayern Munich and AC Milan can still catch them if they win their remaining fixtures. Aside from the financial boost and direct seeding against the lowest qualified teams, Barcelona will avoid being on the same side of the draw as Liverpool if they finish second.

For Atletico, a victory over RB Salzburg guarantees their passage to the Round of 16 in the top eight, off the back of their win over Bayer Leverkusen. If they draw, then they will stand a chance of remaining in the top eight, but Relevo explain that a loss would exponentially increase their chances of featuring in the play-off round, albeit as a high seed.

That is what Real Madrid are aiming for. Ahead of their own clash with Salzburg, Los Blancos are on nine points and 22nd in the table. Two wins against the Austrians and Brest will guarantee their place in the play-off round, and give them a good chance of being seeded in the draw, although the middle of the table seems most likely.

Four points from their two games likely qualifies them, as that would require three teams below them, of a possible five, to win both of their games to knock them out. Three points would not change that equation, and two points would leave them at a higher risk, but still require at least one win from the sides below them. Any less, and Los Blancos are more likely to go out. Goal difference will be the chief separating factor, and thus Carlo Ancelotti’s side will be pursuing goals in both games.

Girona have things much more difficult. Currently 31st in the table, with just three points to their name, the Catalans’ only chance of qualifying is with two wins – from their remaining fixtures with AC Milan and Arsenal. They would then need Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid, Shakhtar Donestsk and Sparta Prague all to go winless in their remaining games. The former three would also finish above Girona with two points from their final Champions League games, leaving Michel Sanchez and his players living on a prayer.