Ravens-Bills playoff preview: Who has the advantage in Buffalo in MVP showdown?

It's only the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs, but Sunday night's tilt between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills could be the best game of the postseason.

This year's clear cut MVP frontrunners will meet in a clash of dominant offenses and dream-killing defenses. Both sides have the same boulder to roll another step up their respective mountains. Each needs to prove they can eventually make it out of the AFC side of the bracket and to the Super Bowl.

Josh Allen has lifted the Bills to heights unseen since the early 1990s. But unlike Jim Kelly and company, he's been blocked before he can get to the Super Bowl by the eventual AFC reps -- most commonly the Kansas City Chiefs but once the Cincinnati Bengals. Lamar Jackson is only 2-5 as a playoff starter and, after two MVP awards (and counting), the only thing he has left to prove is that he can deliver the Vince Lombardi trophy back to Baltimore.

One team will be given the chance to retire its postseason narrative. The other will be left to wallow in it for at least one more year. Who has the advantage when these brilliant quarterbacks meet in Orchard Park, New York?

1. Who has the advantage when the Bills throw the ball?

Bills dropback EPA/play: 0.298 (first out of 32 NFL teams)

Ravens dropback EPA/play allowed: 0.060 (14th)

Let's start with the home team. Josh Allen remains a machine, even without Stefon Diggs to lead his receiving corps. While his 3,731 passing yards were his lowest since 2019, his passer rating was the highest it's been since a breakthrough 2020. He was responsible for few negative plays (a 2.8 percent sack rate), remained a soul-crushing scrambler and was generally impossible to figure out.

This helped lead Buffalo to 13 wins in a season where Khalil Shakir was the team's top target.

The flaw in Allen's game is that he's lacked the tools to operate a devastating deep or even medium range attack consistently in 2024. His 13.7 percent deep ball rate is the highest its been in five years but his bad throw rate has risen alongside it from 14.2 percent in 2023 to 18.7 percent in 2024. He's thrown 157 passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield but completed only 70 (44.6 percent). Lamar Jackson, comparatively, has 180 such throws and 101 completions (56.1 percent).

While Allen's yards per carry doesn't match Jackson's, his ability to use his legs to set up manageable situations later in the drive is unmatched. His 64.7 percent success rate -- a play that gains at least 40 percent of yards needed for a first down or touchdown on first down, 60 percent of yards needed on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down -- on runs was first in the league. That helped Buffalo rank seventh in third down conversion rate and second on fourth down, and it's a trait Baltimore will invest heavily in stopping Sunday.

That will shift the focus of the Bills' offseason targets, but for Sunday it means a surging pass defense could limit the home team's big plays. It took defensive coordinator Zach Orr time to figure out his strategy after losing key personnel last offseason (Geno Stone, Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney), but he's regained his footing. Baltimore ranked 29th in dropback EPA allowed through Week 9. Over the back half of 2024, the Ravens rank first.

Kyle Hamilton is once again thriving as an over-the-top safety disruptor. Marlon Humphrey has returned to All-Pro form. Kyle Van Noy, somehow, set a personal record with 12.5 sacks at age 33.

Advantage: Bills, but Baltimore has a better chance of shutting down Josh Allen than anyone else in the NFL.

2. Who has the advantage when the Bills run the ball?

Bills run game EPA/play: 0.029 (third)

Ravens run game EPA/play allowed: -0.178 (third)

James Cook emerged as a valuable sidekick to Allen, tying for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards in 16 games. His 53.1 percent success rate pales in comparison to Allen's, but still ranked ninth among all running backs with at least 150 carries.

As a result, Buffalo's EPA/rush was second only to the Washington Commanders even despite a relatively high stuff rate (16.5 percent of its runs went for zero or negative yards) and an only slightly above average 2.5 yards before contact per carry. Opponents tried to stuff the box to shut that down and mostly failed; Allen and Cook averaged 5.0 yards per carry between them

The Ravens will counter with the league's stingiest run defense. Their 80.1 rush yards allowed wasn't just a function of beating teams and forcing them to throw the ball more; Baltimore's -0.16 EPA/rush ranked second only to the Minnesota Vikings in 2024. Both Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike had double-digit tackles for loss this season and edge rusher Odafe Oweh wasn't far behind with nine.

But that unit actually backslid as the season went on and Baltimore's pass defense got better. It ranked second in run defense efficiency in the first half of the season but ninth over the back end. That didn't stop the Ravens from leading the league in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) allowed (-0.53 per carry, significantly better than second place Houston). And this team just held the Steelers to 29 rushing yards in a wild card beatdown. Still, it's enough to make you consider how Buffalo's run success could swing this game in its favor.

Advantage: Bills.

3. Who has the advantage when the Ravens throw the ball?

Ravens dropback EPA/play : 0.328 (first)

Bills dropback EPA/play allowed: 0.094 (20th)

Like with Allen, Jackson is a destructive force who cannot be counted out of a play until the whistle blows. He spent 2024 reminding the world how dynamic a passer he can be. He led the league in both touchdown rate (8.6 percent) and passer rating (119.6).

This was not a function of short throws taken for long gains to inflate his stats. His average target depth of 9.0 yards was fourth-highest in the NFL. His 101 completions that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage ranked third behind Joe Burrow and Sam Darnold. While Burrow and Darnold had first-team All-Pros atop their wideout depth charts, Jackson did his best work throwing to Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers -- good players, no doubt, but not bonafide stars.

He's a tremendous passer. He's also a game-changing runner, which tends to be celebrated more than the first fact despite all the stats above. Jackson once again led all quarterbacks with 915 rushing yards. His average scramble nearly created a first down on its own (9.0 yards per escape). He's played 18 games this season and had at least one run of 15 yards or more in 14 of them.

While the Ravens' pass defense has surged late in the season, Buffalo's began to look more like you'd expect from a unit replacing multiple starters. The Bills were sandwiched between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots when it came to defensive efficiency through the air over the back half of 2024.

Advantage: Ravens, in a way that could potentially break this game open.

4. Who has the advantage when the Ravens run the ball?

Ravens run game EPA/play: 0.053 (second)

Bills run game EPA/play allowed: -0.163 (fifth)

Baltimore cracked the 300 rushing yard plateau last week against the Steelers. This is because they have two mythical creatures NFL defenses have failed to stop for the better part of a decade now.

Jackson understands the exact break point between luring linebackers toward the line of scrimmage to launch a pass over their heads and tucking and running for big gains. Henry is 30 years old but just came within 80 yards of his second 2,000-yard season as a pro. His 5.9 yards per carry this season are a career high and he remains a breakaway threat; his 21.73 miles per hour on an 81-yard carry against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7 was the sixth-fastest run by a tailback this season.

By those powers combined, the Ravens led the NFL in rushing yards and rushing efficiency even while Saquon Barkley neared the league's single-season yardage record.

Buffalo's run defense isn't the specter Baltimore's has been, but is formidable. Its -0.249 EPA/rush vs. Denver last week was actually better than the Ravens vs. Pittsburgh. But that came against an unimpressive Broncos tailback rotation and not Henry -- the guy who ran for 199 yards the last time these teams met.

Advantage: Ravens, but not by as much as you might think.

5. Who has the special teams edge?

Justin Tucker breached a crisis point early in the season. In a six-game span, the once automatic kicker missed five field goals in 12 attempts along with a pair of extra points. He hasn't missed a kick since the Ravens' bye week, but he's only attempted three field goals since then.

Tyler Bass has connected on all four of his field goals from 50-plus yards, but has four misses in 11 tries from 40 to 49 yards out. His 92.2 percent extra point conversion rate is a career low. Neither of these guys are automatic, but Bass feels slightly more trustworthy despite Tucker's absurd resume.

Neither Sam Martin nor Jordan Stout are any great shakes as punters -- they're totally fine. Rookie Brandon Codrington gives Buffalo a dynamic presence in the return game. If anyone's going to swing this game with a big play on special teams, the safe money is on him.

Advantage: Bills, but it's close.

Ultimately this is two juggernauts who might be the top two teams in the NFL, colliding two games before the Super Bowl takes place. That's unfair for them but great news for the rest of the world. Baltimore feels a smidge safer, but trying to predict the outcome of this game feels like an exercise of determining who would win a fight between a pack of velociraptors and a megalodon.

So yeah, all we really know is this game should be awesome.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Ravens-Bills playoff preview: Who has the advantage in Buffalo in MVP showdown?