Ranking the 2015 NBA draft's top senior prospects
College seniors have gone out of style the past few years, as NBA teams have clearly seemed to sour on older players in general. It doesn't help that some of the biggest busts of the past few drafts have come from the senior ranks, with the likes of Jimmer Fredette, Ekpe Udoh, Wesley Johnson, Cole Aldrich, Terrence Williams, Hasheem Thabeet (senior-aged at 22), Tyler Hansbrough and others being just a few recent lottery picks who did not live up to their draft position. C.J. McCollum and Doug McDermott appear to be on that same route, albeit much earlier in their careers.
Analytics-based studies have consistently shown the value of youth in determining NBA potential. Teams have become increasingly comfortable letting college seniors go undrafted while instead swinging for the fences hoping to strike gold with younger players. With the increasing prominence of the D-League, teams know that solid, end-of-the-bench role players can be easily had in midseason if needed, and they know the seniors will be there in summer league and training camp prior to that if needed. They'd rather not miss on a potential stud than get another run-of-the-mill rotation player.
That strategy has backfired on quite a few occasions, and the NBA is littered with four-year players who had fabulous college careers. Here are 29 who are currently in the NBA, all of whom are in very different places in their trajectory:
Player | Pick taken | Career PER |
---|---|---|
1 | 24.4 | |
6 | 18.4 | |
30 | 17.1 | |
51 | 13.3 | |
Undrafted | 14.7 | |
35 | 13.9 | |
60 | 19 | |
26 | 15.2 | |
27 | 14.5 | |
11 | 14.4 | |
17 | 16.1 | |
22 | 19.2 | |
25 | 14.6 | |
46 | 14.9 | |
12 | 13.5 | |
27 | 12.5 | |
8 | 17.5 | |
23 | 14.1 | |
17 | 16.9 | |
38 | 15.3 | |
8 | 13.3 | |
22 | 12.4 | |
Undrafted | 13.6 | |
21 | 15.8 | |
20 | 15.3 | |
17 | 14.7 | |
7 | 12.9 | |
Undrafted | 9.8 | |
46 | 16.4 |
With that in mind, here are the 10-best NCAA senior prospects in the 2015 NBA draft:
# | RSCI | PLAYER | TEAM | HT | WT | POS | AGE | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
| Frank Kaminsky | Wisconsin | 7'1" | 231 | PF | 22.1 | 39 | 33.6 | 18.8 | 8.2 | 2.6 |
2 | 111 | Jerian Grant | Notre Dame | 6'5" | 198 | PG | 22.6 | 38 | 37.1 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 6.6 |
3 |
| Delon Wright | Utah | 6'6" | 181 | PG | 23.0 | 34 | 33.6 | 14.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
4 | 86 | Jonathan Holmes | Texas | 6'9" | 242 | SF/PF | 22.4 | 32 | 26.1 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 1.1 |
5 |
| Richaun Holmes | Bowling Green | 6'10" | 243 | PF | 21.6 | 30 | 28.7 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 0.8 |
6 | 25 | Rakeem Christmas | Syracuse | 6'10" | 243 | PF/C | 23.4 | 31 | 34.3 | 17.5 | 9.0 | 1.5 |
7 | 60 | Anthony Brown | Stanford | 6'7" | 211 | SF | 22.6 | 37 | 35.7 | 14.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 |
8 | 51 | Norman Powell | UCLA | 6'4" | 215 | SG | 22.0 | 36 | 34.6 | 16.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
9 | 104 | Joseph Young | Oregon | 6'2" | 182 | PG/SG | 22.9 | 35 | 37.0 | 20.7 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
10 |
| Alan Williams | UC Santa Barbara | 6'8" | 261 | C | 22.3 | 24 | 33.3 | 17.6 | 12.1 | 1.6 |
# | PLAYER | TEAM | PER | 2P% | 3P% | FT% | P40 | R40 | A40 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Frank Kaminsky | Wisconsin | 35.0 | .581 | .416 | .780 | 22.3 | 9.8 | 3.1 |
2 | Jerian Grant | Notre Dame | 25.7 | .572 | .316 | .780 | 17.8 | 3.3 | 7.2 |
3 | Delon Wright | Utah | 29.5 | .549 | .356 | .835 | 17.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
4 | Jonathan Holmes | Texas | 19.9 | .443 | .331 | .778 | 15.8 | 9.4 | 1.6 |
5 | Richaun Holmes | Bowling Green | 30.4 | .586 | .419 | .711 | 20.1 | 11.1 | 1.2 |
6 | Rakeem Christmas | Syracuse | 26.8 | .555 | .000 | .712 | 20.4 | 10.5 | 1.8 |
7 | Anthony Brown | Stanford | 19.9 | .424 | .441 | .795 | 16.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 |
8 | Norman Powell | UCLA | 20.0 | .503 | .319 | .751 | 19.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 |
9 | Joseph Young | Oregon | 23.3 | .506 | .364 | .932 | 22.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
10 | Alan Williams | UC Santa Barbara | 29.5 | .460 | .000 | .758 | 21.1 | 14.6 | 1.9 |
RSCI is a consensus of where the player was ranked according to the high school recruiting services going into college, which serves as a guide for the player's trajectory the past four years. You'll notice how much the players' ages vary, even in a single class of collegiate players, with as many as two years separating some of them. Rakeem Christmas for example will turn 24 in December, while Richaun Holmes is only 21 and is younger than a number of the juniors who are projected to get drafted.
You'll also see a wide spectrum of productivity, ranging from the No. 1 player in college basketball (Frank Kaminsky), to prospects who were role players at best on their respective teams, like Jonathan Holmes, Anthony Brown and Norman Powell, but who project as specialists at the NBA level. Holmes plays the coveted stretch-4 position, and doesn't have any glaring holes in his game. Anthony Brown has good size for the wing and shot 44 percent on 3-pointers as a senior and 46 percent as a junior. Norman Powell is one of the best athletes in the draft and projects as a multi-positional defender with his freakish 6-foot-11 wingspan.
Almost everyone on this list is a specialist, indicating they are ready to step into the NBA from Day 1 and play a role for a team. Delon Wright is an outstanding passer, rebounder and defender. Jerian Grant is one of the most creative passers in the draft. Richaun Holmes is a tremendous defender. Joseph Young is a scoring machine. Alan Williams is a phenomenal rebounder. And Frank Kaminsky is a rare 7-1 power forward who can score from anywhere on the floor, and has an outstanding feel for the game.
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