Raiders at Texans: This is one of the weirdest playoff matchups in NFL history

Oakland Raiders (12-4) at Houston Texans (9-7)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET on ESPN

RAIDERS AT A GLANCE

Key player: QB Connor Cook. You can’t talk about this game without discussing about the crazy quarterback matchup. On the Texans’ side there’s Brock Osweiler, who was ridiculed for his poor play after signing a $72 million contract, his 72.2 rating was second-to-last among regular NFL starters (congratulations, Ryan Fitzpatrick, for finishing last) and he was benched for Tom Savage with a playoff berth still in the balance. And Osweiler, who will start this week, is by far the most reliable quarterback in this game. Cook is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first career start in the playoffs. The rookie has to start because Derek Carr is injured and Matt McGloin was ineffective last week (NFL Network’s James Palmer said McGloin took normal second-team reps in practice Wednesday). Cook was an interesting draft case, once touted as a high first-round pick who was passed over repeatedly until the Raiders took him in the fourth round. Whispers about his leadership and questions about his ability might have factored in. Cook, for whatever it’s worth, had a 53.3 rating in the preseason with no touchdowns and three interceptions. He looked decent at times in relief of McGloin in Week 17 (14 of 21, 150 yards, one touchdown, one interception) but this is a really tough and unprecedented assignment.

Why they’ll win: Perhaps Cook surprises everyone and leads the Raiders to a win. He’s an unknown, so it’s possible. Realistically, the rest of the Raiders need to rally around him. The running game takes center stage. The Raiders rushed for 120.1 yards per game, sixth in the NFL, and 4.4 yards per carry, which is tied for 10th. The blueprint for Oakland might be their first meeting against the Denver Broncos, when they relied heavily on sets with six offensive linemen, rushed for 218 yards in a win.

Why they’ll lose: We already know the answer, but let’s find another reason. If there’s something that bothers Osweiler, it’s pressure. The Raiders are surprisingly bad at rushing the quarterback, despite having defensive player of the year candidate Khalil Mack. Oakland had a NFL-low 25 sacks, even with Mack getting 11. When your offense is shorthanded you need the defense to make some big plays, and this isn’t a great defense.

Keep in mind: The Raiders seemed very flat in Week 17 with the AFC West title on the line. That’s understandable, considering the week before they lost Carr, their leader and MVP candidate at quarterback. Are they able to refocus a week removed from that devastating injury? Or is the realization that a possible Super Bowl trip has likely been crushed on one unfortunate play too much to overcome?

TEXANS AT A GLANCE

Key player: QB Brock Osweiler. The quarterbacks are the intense focus of this game. Osweiler has a chance to write a positive ending to a terrible season. Tom Savage suffered a concussion in Week 17. The Texans presumably decided to go with Osweiler because of the uncertainty about Savage’s availability, and because Osweiler played pretty well in relief last week. It will be interesting to see how Osweiler handles the pressure of being re-inserted into the lineup for a playoff game.

Why they’ll win: The Texans have played pretty well on defense all season. They allowed 301.3 yards per game, fewest in the NFL. Assuming the Texans can focus on stopping the run, Houston should be able to limit the Raiders’ offense. The Texans’ offense hasn’t been very good all season, but it might not need to be if the defense handles its business, limits the run and forces Cook into some mistakes.

Why they’ll lose: The Texans are one of the weaker playoff teams in recent memory. They had a minus-49 point differential. They amazingly finished 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA per-play metric, behind the 3-13 Chicago Bears, 3-13 Jacksonville Jaguars and 2-14 San Francisco 49ers. The offense was mostly punchless and the special teams were poor. If they lose, it’s no mystery why: It’s because they weren’t a good team throughout the season.

Keep in mind: Lamar Miller could be a huge factor in this game. Miller missed the last two games of the regular season with an ankle injury, though he says he feels good and ready to go. If Miller is fresh and healthy, he could get a lot of work. He got 20 or more carries seven times this season. Oakland doesn’t have a great run defense (or a great pass defense for that matter), so it would be no surprise if Miller comes close or surpasses his season-high of 28 carries.

OUTLOOK

This is not a marquee matchup to start the playoffs this season. We have one team that was very good all season, but now has a rookie quarterback making his first start. The other team has struggled all season, somehow found itself in the playoffs and now turns back to a quarterback who was one of the worst in the NFL all season. It’s a playoff game that is unique, to say the least. While there are plenty of reasons to pick against the Texans, it’s hard to take a team starting Connor Cook on the road in a playoff game. The Texans should get the win and then will be significant underdogs at New England or Kansas City.

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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