Racing Insights: Martin Truex Jr. looks to stand on business at Richmond

Editor’s note: Projection and text were updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying:

The NASCAR Cup Series shifts back to short-track racing for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway (7 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio), which aims to be another pulse-pounding spectacle in the 2024 season.

Racing Insights initially had Martin Truex Jr. poised to win, and that stance did not change after Saturday’s practice and qualifying. Truex, who took over sole possession of the top spot in the driver standings after last Sunday’s Circuit of The Americas race, has been consistent through six races with an average running position of 8.3 and an 8.8 average finish. Truex was in contention for the short-track win two weeks ago at Bristol Motor Speedway, challenging Denny Hamlin in the closing laps.

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Richmond is an excellent opportunity for the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing driver to notch his first win of the season. He’s won three of the last nine races at the Virginia circuit and finished in the top 10 in nine of the last 10 races there. Joe Gibbs Racing has also won nine of the last 16 races at Richmond.

After Truex in the projections is Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, who moved up a spot since our initial post. Pole winner Kyle Larson comes next, with Denny Hamlin and William Byron rounding out the top five. Joey Logano (up one spot), Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and Chris Buescher complete the top 10.

There will be plenty to watch this Sunday as it will be the first Richmond race under the lights in the Next Gen era. Plus, there should be plenty of opportunities for teams to gain or lose spots on pit road, mixing up the field during the race.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

DENNY HAMLIN: With impressive career stats at Richmond (four wins, 18 top fives and 22 top 10s), Hamlin has firmly established himself as a powerhouse at his home track. Moreover, Hamlin already owns a short-track win this year (albeit with a different rules package) and is fourth on the list for most laps led at Richmond Raceway all-time (2,226).

KYLE LARSON: With his Hendrick Motorsports counterpart William Byron earning win No. 2 last week, Larson will want to respond with a second win of his own soon. In the Next Gen era, he owns the second-best average finish on short tracks (7.18), paired with two wins (Richmond and Martinsville 2023 spring races). Larson has scored the third-most points on short tracks over the last two seasons.

JOEY LOGANO: Richmond is poised as a bounce-back candidate for Logano, who has struggled in the early going. The two-time champ’s 223 laps led at Richmond in the Next Gen era is second only to Byron, and with a career average finish of 10.0 at Richmond, a top-10 result could be exactly what No. 22 needs at this stage of the season.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: Keselowski finished in the top 10 in both Richmond races last year and wheeled his way to a top-five finish at Bristol. In the last 10 races at Richmond, Keselowski has led the third-most laps (507), behind only Truex and Hamlin, with 102 of those laps led coming last fall.

TY GIBBS: Considering Gibbs’ impressive showing through six races, a win is coming in due time. Gibbs has led 195 laps this year, which is already 63% of his career laps led. While his Richmond stats might not jump off the page, it’s difficult to envision Gibbs not being in the mix, especially considering the speed the No. 54 crew has brought every week.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE TOYOTA OWNER’S 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.