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R number in UK drops again to between 1.1 and 1

Evening Standard
·2 min read
There has been a sharp rise in the number of London Ambulance staff who have quit (Getty Images)
There has been a sharp rise in the number of London Ambulance staff who have quit (Getty Images)

The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK has dropped again.

Data released on Friday by the Government Office for Science and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) shows the estimate for R for the whole of the UK is between 1 and 1.1.

Last week, the R number was between 1 and 1.2.

R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.

An R number between 1 and 1.1 means that on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 10 and 11 other people.

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage.

The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between 0 per cent and plus 2 per cent for the UK as a whole.

It means the number of new infections is growing by 0 per cent to 2 per cent every day.

Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range, according to the experts.

Sage also said the figures published on Friday more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the present situation.

Scientists advising the Government said the estimates of R and growth rates have fallen slightly in recent weeks but do not reflect the lockdown measures that came into force in England on November 5.

They said: “Sage are not confident that R is currently above 1 in England, although this will not be fully reflected yet in the data streams on which our models are based.

“These estimates are based on the latest data available up to November 17, and do not yet accurately reflect the interventions introduced in England on November 5.”

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