Quick Scout: One factor that could play big role for Kansas Jayhawks vs. UTEP Miners

Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.

Tuesday’s game: No. 8 Kansas vs. UTEP, 7 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Opponent’s record: 4-3

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 162

Point spread: KU by 19 1/2.

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.

3 STRENGTHS

• Size: UTEP, which ranks 59th in average height, has no player shorter than 6-3 in the starting lineup and no one below 6-2 in its regular rotation.

• Creating havoc: The Miners rank 50th in defensive turnover rate, and that quality has become a statistical staple for coach Joe Golding’s teams; at Abilene Christian, Golding’s squads were first and second nationally the last two years in creating giveaways.

• Defensive rebounding: UTEP is 53rd in defensive rebounding rate with guards who’ve done a great job of helping in that area.

3 WEAKNESSES

• Transition offense: UTEP attempts fast breaks less than an average team, but it ranks 325th in adjusted shooting percentage on those tries even when it does run.

• Fouling: The Miners rank 349th in defensive free throw rate, as five of their seven opponents have attempted at least 20 freebies.

• Field goal shooting: UTEP attempts a high number of inefficient mid-range jumpers, and it’s also made just 29% of its threes this season.

PLAYER TO WATCH

6-foot-3 guard Souley Boum (No. 0)

Plus: Scored 16 points with three steals vs. KU in last year’s 67-62 loss at Allen Fieldhouse

Plus: Takes on huge offensive role while remaining efficient

Plus: Rarely turns it over

Plus: Best skill is getting fouled and going to line, where he’s a career 83% shooter

Plus: Has made 39% of threes over the last two seasons

Minus: Poor shooter around the rim (if you don’t foul him)

Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “below average” defender who has especially struggled to get out to spot-up shooters

PREDICTION

This matchup looks a lot on paper like when the two teams played last year.

There aren’t many statistical reasons to like the Miners’ chances against KU. They don’t shoot well, labor to get easy baskets, haven’t made many threes and foul too much on the defensive end.

Even UTEP’s strength — creating turnovers — isn’t likely to play up against KU, as coach Bill Self has loaded his team with ball-handlers.

Having said all that, I like UTEP to cover for one main reason: the setting.

Historically, the Sprint-turned-T-Mobile Center has had awful crowds in this annual December KU matchup. And by “awful,” I don’t mean there aren’t fans; I mean, they don’t make any noise while typically contributing to one of KU’s deadest atmospheres of the season.

Even on the road, KU’s players can often feed off opposing fans’ energy to remain enthused. These games are especially tricky, then, because no matter how well the Jayhawks play, they’ll have to continue to motivate themselves because of the sterile atmosphere.

That makes this a dangerous setup for this KU team, which has been prone to lifeless stretches and inconsistent defensive play.

KenPom and other sites call this a “semi-home” game for KU and adjust the numbers accordingly, but I honestly think the Jayhawks giving KU any additional points in this spot is a small mistake by the oddsmakers.

Look for the Jayhawks to get the win, but I don’t see this one getting out of hand.

Kansas 78, UTEP 68

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: UTEP

HAWK TO ROCK

UTEP appears to give up a lot of free-throw attempts to quick wing-type players who can beat the team off the drive. That makes it an excellent spot for Jalen Wilson to snap out of his mini-funk, as he’s got the potential for a 15-plus point game if he remains aggressive.

Last game prediction: Kansas 81, St. John’s 70 (Actual: KU 95-75) ✔️

2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-4

Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-109-3 (55%)