Will PWHL Players Face The Sophomore Slump

The sophomore slump is a phenomenon discussed in the hockey world each year. There have been studies looking at how early success can often impact future effort, a trend called "regression toward the mean."

Some attribute it to wear and tear on the body following a year of more strenuous exertion and schedule. There's also the idea that expectations for production and performance increase as players gain experience, and sometimes those expectations are stressful to athletes, or unrealistic in nature.

NHL players like Matty Beniers and Kent Johnson experienced significant "sophomore slumps" last season. Will this trend carry over for PWHL rookies as well?

For some, where they've been playing at the highest level in women's hockey internationally for years, it may help soften the predicted dip, but slumps and regressions are certain to happen. This season will also be different with an additional six games on the schedule with each team playing 30, instead of 24, games. Here's a look at the top PWHL rookies from last season and a prediction for their sophomore performance.

Taylor Heise, Minnesota - Every bit of Heise's past suggests she'll be a top scorer in this league, and many expected her to sit atop the scoring ladder last year after going first overall in the PWHL Draft. Her scoring rate increased in the postseason, and Heise recorded a point per game at Worlds after returning from an injury that saw her miss a quarter of her rookie campaign. If Heise is healthy, she's a good bet for the sophomore soar, not the sophomore slump.

Gabbie Hughes, Ottawa - With Ottawa's added depth down the middle, it would not be surprising to see Hughes' production flatline this year. She should be able to score at her rookie pace, but as she's likely headed for Ottawa's third line after spending last year in their top six, it's hard to predict how that will impact her production. While it means less time and less special teams, it also means less difficult match ups.

Alina Muller, Boston - With Boston's depth down the wings, it would not be surprising to see Muller return to her natural position as a center. If she does and ends up as the pivot flanked by the speed and creativity of a player like Hannah Bilka, and the shooting of a Hilary Knight or Loren Gabel, Muller could be in for a bump up in production. Anything can happen but it's hard to see a player of Muller's age and experience suffering a significant slump.

Emma Maltais, Toronto - When you're surrounded by as much talent as Toronto has up front, it will be hard not to put up points. The status of Natalie Spooner could play a role here as the line of Spooner, Maltais, and Sarah Nurse was one of the most deadly and consistent in the league. Even if she doesn't end up in the top ten in league scoring a game, the contributions Maltais brings to the ice are far more diverse than simply setting up goals. She's a play driver with or without production.

Grace Zumwinkle, Minnesota - Zumwinkle was the PWHL's inaugural Rookie of the Year finishing tied for second in the league in goals with 11. It will be difficult to repeat her pace from last season as Minnesota's leading scorer, but the team will need her to stay close if they hope to repeat. While you don't want to read into it too much Zumwinkle ended her season on a skid only managing one goal, her only point, in 10 playoff games. A sophomore slump is a realistic possibility.

Sophie Jaques, Minnesota - After a very slow start in Boston, Sophie Jaques made consistent progress in Minnesota. Defensively there's still a lot to learn, but as the season progressed in Minnesota, we started seeing flashes of the Patty Kazmaier winning defender's potential. Could she slump? Sure. But the upward trend could also hint that Jaques could continue on her upward trajectory

Maureen Murphy, Montreal - This might depend on how Montreal deploys Murphy. She could play in the top six on the wing, or she could move to the third line centre role. Montreal would likely benefit from her playing down the middle, but if she moves down the lineup, it might be difficult to maintain her 2024 pace.

Ashton Bell, Ottawa - It wouldn't be surprising to see Bell's production inch upward. She played more and more as the season went on finishing among league leaders in time on ice and blocked shots. She loves to jump into the play and carry the puck, and with Ottawa having more blueline depth this year, she might get that green light more often. It's hard to predict with defenders how offense can change, but her year one production was likely lower than she expected, so there's motivation heading into this season.

Abigail Boreen, Montreal - Few rookies scored at the rate of Abigail Boreen, but her sample size was minuscule, and her playoffs were goalless. Truthfully, Boreen has a better chance to produce in Montreal than Minnesota. She plays the game in a way that is ideal for the PWHL. Expectations for Boreen's second season should be tempered as she has yet to deal with the rigours of a full pro campaign.

Lexie Adzija, Boston - Adzija rapidly became a fans favorite in Ottawa as one of their early scoring leaders, but as her ice time dimished, so did her output. Adzija won't be getting top six minutes in Boston, so she'll need to find ways to produce, and use her size and strength to have an impact from a bottom six role. Adzija will score, and contribute in other ways, even if it isn't to the same degree as season one.

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Other Rookies To Watch

Chloe Aurard is a candidate to be a breakout sophomore. She was expected to score much more than she did in season one, but it wasn't to be. Given the added skill in New York's lineup, this could be a big year for Aurard. Theresa Schafzahl was quietly one of the PWHL's better all around rookies last season, but her numbers weren't great. Watch for progress this season. The same could be said for Boston teammate Sophie Shirley. Shirley was one of the more noticeable players every time she stepped on the ice last season, if she can add a little finish to her game, she could be a climber. One other name to watch is Jesse Compher. Compher didn't step into a scoring role with Toronto, and likely won't see an offensive boom this season either as she'll be even further down Toronto's depth chart.