Should the PWHL be Considering an All-Canadian Expansion?

After a trio of sold out, PWHL take over to her stops in Canada the question of expansion is not so much how many teams but how many countries. Not only has the PWHL Takeover Tour been an incredible success north of the border, we continue to see attendance concerns with each of the PWHL's American franchises.

In Ottawa, Montreal, and Toronto, each market's average attendance is up over last season. Montreal and Toronto needed larger venues and have seen their average attendance rise drastically. In Toronto attendance is up by more than 6,000 fans per game. In Montreal that average is up more than 2,000 fans per game before the team has hosted their home game at the Bell Centre. Ottawa is up by more than 500 fans per game. All three are averaging over 8,000 fans per game this season.

Moving south of the border, New York is the only team with increased attendance, averaging 25 fans per game more than last season, but still sitting last in PWHL attendance averaging just over 2,500 fans per game, although they've drawn under 2,000 fans twice this season. In the league's two season history, only eight games have ever drawn under 2,000, six of which were New York home games. The other two were held at the Tsongas Center in Lowell, home of the Boston Fleet. Boston's average home attendance has dropped by just over 100 fans per game this season to 3,655. The league has set up a pair of test games this March at Agganis Arena, home of the Boston University Terriers men's hockey team. It will for the first time in franchise history bring a home game for the Boston Fleet or PWHL Boston within the City of Boston, playing at the 6,150 arena.

The Minnesota Frost continue to suffer the consequences of isolating their fan base by ousting general manager and Minnesota legend Natalie Darwitz under questionable circumstances. Following the controversy, fans took to social media posting images of requests to cancel season tickets, and the impact is showing. Minnesota's home attendance has dropped by more than 1,200 fans per game this season.

With one or possibly two new franchises joining the league as soon as next season, the new question is: should the PWHL be focusing expansion with the hopes of luring, American broadcasting rights, or with the intent of filling arenas as we’ve seen in Quebec city, Vancouver, and Edmonton?

The Canadian Dollar Will Be A Factor

In 2023 and 2024, the Canadian Dollar averaged only 0.64 cents compared to the American dollar. In essence, this means the league will likely be willing to accept American buildings operating at 64% attendance compared to Canadian averages. There are certainly other factors, including the fact Canadian broadcasters have already jumped on board with the PWHL nationally, as well as the abundance of merchandise sales in Canada where currency is not impacted.

Canada's three markets are currently averaging 9,121 fans per game, while the three USA markets are averaging 4,180 fans per game. That's only 45.8% of the Canadian capacity. There's a chance this would improve with strategic American expansion to Seattle, Denver, or Detroit, but there's also a chance the margin will widen if the PWHL finds success in Vancouver, Quebec City, or Edmonton long term.

Hopes For National Broadcasting Will Drive Expansion Even Without Fans

The NWSL announced a four year national broadcasting package bringing in $60 million per season in 2024. The PWHL would likely play in empty buildings in exchange for that kind of deal. At the PWHL's current league wide salary of $7,817,700, a $240 million deal like the NWSL would pay all PWHL salaries for the next 30 years. The PWHL did not announce how much broadcasting revenue the league is receiving from national broadcasters like TSN, CBC, and Amazon Prime. Nor what their regional deals with FanDuel, NESN, or MSG will pay.

To get such a pact from American broadcasters, that would turn the PWHL into an immediate money maker, however, the league has acknowledged the need to become more national in the United States. It's why, despite the fact fans are begging for the league in Canadian cities, the league will almost certainly look at expansion west in the USA, whether it's in this round of expansion or the next. Expansion, however, does not guarantee a broadcasting deal, particularly if broadcasters recognize that people aren't interested in watching in the USA.

One alternative could be increasing the number of neutral site games across the USA and aiming to sell a national package for the broadcasting rights to those games, which have proven successful in American markets, while continuing to grow the fan base in regions like Quebec, and Western Canada, where there is ticket demand.

The NHL Model Is Not One To Follow

The PWHL has perhaps unwisely leaned on the guidance of the NHL too heavily in their first years. The NHL has failed to grow in popularity in the USA despite rapid expansion and relocation to California, Arizona, Utah, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas, Washington and beyond. Hockey trails football, baseball, basketball, and now soccer in the United States, and could soon fall behind volleyball as well as the sport expands professionally in the nation. In Canada, the list is hockey, by a landslide, followed by soccer and basketball. Canadian markets, when brought into leagues, have done well in all of the sports listed, with the NBA's Toronto Raptors sitting 10th in league attendance, and the MLB's Toronto Blue Jays drawing the 9th most fans in the league. It's why the WNBA will expand to Canada in 2026, and also why investors are backing the Northern Super League for soccer. The Canadian Football League averaged 22,795 fans per game last season as well, a respectable figure.

Soccer is perhaps the best model to follow. In England, the Premier league does not look to add teams in other European nations. They see the value domestically where the fan base is rabid, and has become so ingrained in culture and tradition, that residents tie much of their identity to clubs. Ultimately, it's fan support that builds any league and any sport. If the PWHL wants full venues and to grow their fan base, Canadian expansion is the logical path. The NHL, to their own peril, has ignored places like Quebec City for decades. Canada has sent a clear message to the PWHL, the nation wants more teams, and has thousands of fans waiting to scoop up tickets at the drop of the puck. The opportunity for American expansion should not be ignored either, but it should also not be favored at the expense of paying fans in Canada.