Projecting The Stars: Matt Dumba

We’re getting closer to the start of the NHL’’s 2024-25 regular season, and THN.com’s Dallas Stars team website is continuing to post a player-by-player series of projections for the Stars’ roster this coming year. We’ve moved through Dallas’ group of forwards, and today, we’re diving deeper into the defense corps with new Stars blueliner Matt Dumba.

The 30-year-old Dumba has bounced around the NHL in recent years, moving from Minnesota to Arizona at the start of this past season, then finishing the year with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Dumba is out of his prime, but Stars GM Jim Nill clearly values Dumba as a right-shot defenseman with some snarl to his game (88 penalty minutes last season).

Career: 165 assists, 248 points in 674 games

2023-24 Statistics: Four goals, 12 points in 76 games

Salary Cap Hit: $3.75 million, through 2025-26

Summary of 2023-24 Season: Dumba’s statistics have fallen off in recent years – this is a blueliner who posted 14 goals and 50 points in a single season – but Nill committed to two years and $7.5 million to Dumba because he plays with an edge and still has gas left in his competitive tank.

At this stage, Dumba is probably a poor man’s Chris Tanev, who was beloved in Dallas but wanted to play in his Toronto hometown. Dumba’s offensive totals last season were the worst of his 11-season NHL career, but he was valued enough for the Tampa Bay Lightning to acquire late in the season. He’s a depreciating asset, but one that still can contribute in a meaningful way.

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Projections For 2024-25 Season: As per THN Lineups, Dumba is going to be battling to be Dallas’ second-pair D-man. But we suspect Dumba will spend time on the third pair to start the season, and be challenged for minutes by fellow first-year Star Ilya Lyubushkin. That means he’ll probably log somewhere in the area of 16-18 minutes per game, and kill penalties in the second unit.

As far as offense goes, Dumba would make Stars brass happy if he contributed eight-to-10 goals and 25-35 points, but that’s far from a guarantee. His $3.75-million annual salary raises expectations on him, but the truth is Dallas already has great high-end talent on ‘D’ – with Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley and Esa Lindell all ahead of Dumba on the depth chart – so Dumba can settle in knowing he doesn’t have to lead the team in any one area.

Dumba clearly could’ve got a similar deal in other markets, but he chose Dallas because the Stars are clear Stanley Cup front-runners. But that’s a double-edged sword – meaning Dumba will have to deliver better results to match the bar set by the Stars’ core defensemen. If he goes about his business firmly but quietly, Dumba can be a benefit to Dallas. But he’ll also have to evade the clutches of Father Time.

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