Predicting the top 10 teams in the initial College Football Playoff ranking

Without any insight into how the selection committee will approach a deep list of championship contenders, predicting how the debut College Football Playoff rankings will unfold feels like a guessing game.

Will Georgia or Tennessee be No. 1? The defending national champions aren't a lock to top the rankings, since there's a strong argument for the Volunteers after another impressive win against Kentucky.

If the two SEC teams lead, how will the committee rank Michigan and Ohio State? With both teams unbeaten, that comparison may be influenced by one recent common opponent, Penn State.

How will the committee evaluate TCU and Clemson? While not expected to land higher than fourth, both teams are unblemished heading into a key slate of November games, starting this Saturday with the Tigers’ road trip to Notre Dame.

And how will the committee rank the one-loss teams? Every expectation is for Alabama to lead, followed by Oregon. There may even be an argument for putting Alabama ahead of TCU given how the Crimson Tide’s one loss came on the road against Tennessee.

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Let’s throw some darts at the wall in advance of Tuesday night’s release and try to predict the debut top 10. Look for debate across the board, beginning with which SEC teams lands at No. 1.

1. Tennessee (8-0)

It’s going to be Tennessee or Georgia, with the Volunteers’ case boosted by the strongest résumé of wins among the top contenders from the Power Five. Of the six wins against Bowl Subdivision competition, five are against teams with a non-losing record. Five are against teams then ranked in the Top 25: Pittsburgh, Florida, LSU, Alabama and Kentucky. The Volunteers have the nation’s best offense and, as shown against the Wildcats, a rapidly improving defense. Most of all, the committee will not be able to overlook Tennessee’s win against Alabama, which will stand as the best win by any FBS team so far this season.

2. Georgia (8-0)

This debate will be rendered moot in under a week, after the Volunteers and Bulldogs meet in what should the defining game of the regular season. In the current comparison, Georgia has another outstanding win against Oregon, by 46 points no less, and just one win coming by single digits. But the Bulldogs have just two wins against teams currently with a winning record, with South Carolina the other.

3. Ohio State (8-0)

Despite some tight moments against Notre Dame, Iowa and Penn State, the Buckeyes have exhibited a ridiculous degree of game control in winning eight games by an average of 32 points. (Notre Dame’s recent improvement is also a big positive.) This level of dominance should give Ohio State the edge over Michigan despite the Wolverines’ more impressive performance against Penn State. That the Buckeyes won in Happy Valley essentially negates that advantage. In fact, OSU has an argument for being ranked ahead of Georgia.

4. Michigan (8-0)

Michigan has looked the part but could be dinged by questions regarding the team’s overall strength of schedule. Non-conference wins against Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut are meaningless. The Wolverines’ two best wins, Maryland and Penn State, came in Ann Arbor. This makes Michigan unlikely to land at No. 3 and even raises the odds that Clemson or TCU could slot in the top four.

5. Clemson (8-0)

While Michigan has looked like the better team – and this eyeball test has been proven to be a huge part of the committee’s weekly evaluation – Clemson has three wins against teams currently ranked in Wake Forest, North Carolina State and Syracuse, along with a solid road win against Florida State. The important thing for Clemson is to be ahead of TCU, since the deadlock in the Big Ten East will be settled later this month, opening a path for the next-best team to enter the top four.

6. TCU (8-0)

TCU had a run of four wins in a row against then-ranked teams, though those victories against Oklahoma and Kansas have lost luster in the past month. Look for the Horned Frogs’ offense to draw praise while the committee questions a mediocre-or-worse defense and the lack of game control in comeback wins against Oklahoma State and Kansas State.

7. Alabama (7-1)

Alabama is Alabama, and the Crimson Tide’s reputation among committee members speaks for itself. Despite falling back in the SEC race and narrowly escaping against Texas and Texas A&M, the Tide have three very solid wins – against the Longhorns, Arkansas and Mississippi State. They've suffered one loss to perhaps the top-ranked team in the playoff rankings and are one of just three teams in the Bowl Subdivision to rank in the top nine nationally in yards gained and yards allowed per play, joining Georgia and Ohio State.

8. Oregon (7-1)

The Ducks have turned the season around since getting blasted by Georgia in the opener. Since then, Oregon has developed into the best team in the Pac-12 and a genuine playoff threat. While a long shot to come in ahead of the Alabama, the Ducks are a lock to rank ahead of two other one-loss teams from the Pac-12.

9. UCLA (7-1)

UCLA has quietly put together a nice résumé but will be docked for the head-to-head loss to Oregon that wasn't particularly close. Of the Bruins’ seven wins, two are against ranked teams at the time of the game, Washington and Utah, and a third against one of the top teams in the Group of Five – South Alabama. One big issue, however: UCLA has just one road win, against lowly Colorado.

10. Mississippi (8-1)

This last spot could feature an interesting debate between the Rebels and Southern California. The one-loss Rebels have three road wins against Power Five competition, a strong home win against Kentucky and a solid victory against one of the Group of Five’s best in Troy. USC has four wins against teams with a non-losing record and three road wins against the Power Five, led by Oregon State. If the Beavers land in the rankings – and they should – maybe that’s enough to give the Trojans the edge.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Georgia or Tennessee? Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings