Yahoo Sports Predicting the Super Bowl matchup for a fascinating final four
If the divisional round felt strange, it’s because all four losing teams outgained the winners in total yardage. That happened only once before, in 2015, according to the Associated Press.
The results provided a fascinating blend: an upstart and a stabilized conference power, a dynastic quarterback and a potential MVP looking to break through. Here is what to know for the conference championship round, plus the future for a pair of veteran quarterbacks and how we should view Lamar Jackson’s latest playoff exit.
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No. 6 Washington Commanders at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
Just as everybody expected, the NFC North went 0-3 in the postseason and the NFC championship game is composed fully of NFC East members.
The Commanders and Eagles rose here from ashes of a different sort. Washington went 4-13 last season, which afforded them the franchise-shifting privilege of drafting Jayden Daniels second overall. With Daniels at the controls, the management triumvirate of owner Josh Harris, General Manager Adam Peters and Coach Dan Quinn has executed an instant refurbishing after three decades of misery. They are the league’s most remarkable story. Do you remember Sam Howell was this team’s starting quarterback every game of last season?
The Eagles lost six of their final seven games last year, a collapse that culminated with a blowout first-round playoff humiliation that nearly cost Nick Sirianni his job. The Eagles revamped Sirianni’s coaching staff, overhauled their defensive personnel and signed running back Saquon Barkley in free agency. They have enraged their fan base more than any 16-3 team in recorded human history, but they are 16-3 nonetheless, with a dominant defense and a powerhouse offensive line.
The last time they met, Philadelphia and Washington played one of the wildest games of the NFL season. The Commanders scored five touchdowns, committed five turnovers and twice fell behind by 14. Eagles backup quarterback Kenny Pickett played the final three quarters-plus after Jalen Hurts exited with a concussion. Daniels led a last-minute touchdown drive to give the Commanders a 36-33 victory that solidified their playoff standing.
The Commanders have won seven consecutive games, a streak that began when Daniels healed from a midseason injury to his ribs. The Eagles’ victory over the Commanders came in Week 11, when Daniels was heavily compromised. Daniels has been hands down the most dangerous player in this postseason, but he’ll face more pressure Sunday than he did in Detroit. The Lions’ defensive injuries prevented them from taking advantage of Washington’s vulnerabilities along the offensive line. Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter could be a terror, especially after Commanders guard Sam Cosmi tore his ACL in the divisional round.
The Commanders’ defense relies on big plays, and Hurts provides opportunities to make them. His aversion to interceptions stems in part from his willingness to take sacks - rather than forcing the ball, he holds it. Hurts has taken nine sacks in two playoff games, including a safety, even playing behind a great offensive line. Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 10, but he’s fumbled four times in that span. He dropped a ball in Sunday’s 28-22 victory over the Rams, but a teammate recovered.
The challenge for Washington will be forcing the Eagles into passing situations. The Lions rushed for 201 yards in the Commanders’ 45-31 divisional-round victory, with Jahmyr Gibbs ripping off 7.5 yards per rush. The Lions may well have controlled the game had their turnovers not forced them to move away from their running game. Now here comes Barkley, who rushed for 150 yards against Washington when they met in late December.
Barkley is the kind of force few opponents can counter. Daniels is one of them. The Eagles own so many advantages against the Commanders. But Daniels is playing with a blend of flourish and efficiency that has made Washington bulletproof, especially in the most important moments.
Prediction: Commanders 28, Eagles 25
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No. 2 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes will meet for the ninth time, after their previous eight showdowns created some of the most thrilling NFL moments of their generation. Each quarterback has won four times, but theirs is still a lopsided rivalry - the Chiefs have won all three playoff matchups. In the last two, Mahomes led a game-tying drive for a field goal with 13 seconds left in regulation (2022 divisional round), and the Bills missed a game-tying field goal at home late (2024 divisional round).
The Bills’ offense has defined itself in a way that would have been unthinkable in Allen’s unruly early years: They don’t screw up. The Bills turned the ball over at the second-lowest rate in the NFL during the regular season and haven’t committed a turnover in the playoffs. Allen took 14 sacks all season.
Their formula, coupled with the Ravens’ malfunctions, allowed them to survive in their 27-25 divisional round victory. They created only one play of more than 17 yards against Baltimore. But Allen took one sack, for just one yard. The Bills didn’t come close to turning the ball over. They committed one penalty, a specious holding call on left tackle Dion Dawkins. Allen produces some of the most spectacular plays the NFL has ever seen, but it’s how he eliminates calamity between those spectacular plays that has become the Bills’ secret sauce.
As wide receivers have challenged left tackles as the third-highest paid position in the NFL, the Bills and Chiefs offer an argument for a balanced pass-catching corps. Aside from Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce, who reserves his vintage performances for the postseason, both teams feature role players and promising young wideouts. The Bills devoted 3.7 percent of their salary cap to wide receiver, least in the NFL, according to Spotrac. The Chiefs rank 19th at 8.9 percent.
Mahomes can advance to his fifth Super Bowl at age 29, with a chance to become the first quarterback to win three straight. Only Tom Brady has won more playoff games than him, and his career has probably not yet reached its midpoint.
Mahomes’s seventh consecutive trip to the AFC championship game has been less than dominant, despite the Chiefs’ 16-1 record in games he played. The Chiefs won 11 games by a single score, six of them of the final play, many with mind-boggling flair. One field goal got blocked and another banged off an upright. They won consecutive weeks by a 19-17 score. A botched snap saved them one week.
The Chiefs have not topped 30 points all season, a lack of explosiveness that may be difficult to overcome against Buffalo’s inexorable offense. The Bills scored at least 30 points in all but six of 19 games, playoffs included. The Chiefs lost their meeting in November, 30-21, because their offense could not keep pace with Buffalo’s. Allen was the difference, scoring a game-sealing touchdown on a fourth-and-two rumble from the 26-yard line.
The era has belonged to Mahomes. But the season has belonged to Allen.
Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 23
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The Goff-Stafford trade is nearing the end of its utility
It’s hard to think of a better win-win trade in NFL history than the Lions and Rams swapping quarterbacks in 2021. Matthew Stafford won the Super Bowl immediately. Jared Goff, aided by the raft of draft picks that came with him, elevated the Lions from perennial pushover to NFC powerhouse.
The Rams’ run ended Sunday in Philadelphia with a 28-22 loss that showed why it’s difficult to win - and perhaps impossible to win it all - in today’s NFL with a quarterback that so utterly lacks mobility. Stafford has magic in his right arm and an otherworldly ability to diagnose defenses. But in the biggest games, against the best opponents, a quarterback resigned to the pocket becomes a liability.
The four remaining quarterbacks are emblematic of how the best offenses play. Allen, Mahomes, Daniels and Hurts all play different styles, but they are united in how they force defenses to account for an extra threat at all times. Stafford’s passing genius bridges some of that gap, but not all of it. The Rams have a defense ready to win big games. Is Stafford still a quarterback who can carry them over the top? Does he even want to try? Stafford, 36, told reporters he would consider his future this offseason.
Goff provides the Lions a high floor, but he presents the same pocket-bound limitations as Stafford. Given the talent around him, particularly Detroit’s offensive line, the Lions can contend for the Super Bowl with Goff. Can they win it with him? Maybe. Can they win because of him? Goff may have answered that question with his four-turnover performance Saturday night. Rams Coach Sean McVay traded Goff because he felt he had maxed him out. Goff raised the level of his performance while in Detroit, but he may be bumping against another ceiling.
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A parting thought on the Ravens
Losses do not come much harder to swallow than the Ravens’ divisional-round defeat. They didn’t punt or turn the ball over on downs. Jackson was brilliant on the drive he most needed to be. They held Allen to 127 passing yards and 20 on the ground. They outgained Buffalo, 416 yards to 273. And yet their season ended because they committed three turnovers and twice failed on two-point conversions, including a brutal drop by one the best players in franchise history.
Just as the Ravens were good enough to beat the Chiefs in last year’s AFC championship game, they were good enough to beat the Bills on Sunday. For the second consecutive year, the Ravens’ season ended with in the self-immolation of a Super Bowl-worthy roster. For one more offseason, Jackson’s playoff record - now 3-5 - is a topic of consternation.
Both supporters and detractors of Jackson will have legs to stand on after Sunday. For much of the game, the Ravens could not have asked more from him. He gained 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 6.5 yards per rush. He led an 88-yard touchdown drive in the final three minutes. Tight end Mark Andrews, his favorite target, let Jackson down in gutting fashion. Where did he think he was going when he tried dancing horizontally through the Bills’ secondary after a catch, resulting in a costly fumble? How did he drop that final two-point pass?
But Jackson’s two early turnovers were both panicky. He said he should have looked off safety Taylor Rapp before floating a pass into his hands. He simply dropped the ball while taking a sack. They were not indicative of his overall performance, but those plays dictated the flow of the game and put the Ravens in a hole they never fully recovered from.
The Good Enough bar is exceedingly high in the latter stages of the AFC playoffs, when Allen or Mahomes are standing on the other sideline. Victory demands near-perfection. Jackson may have been fantastic for the entire second half. He may have moved his offense down the field better than Allen moved his. But his early turnovers meant he was not good enough. It does not mean he shouldn’t win another MVP award or that he won’t someday win a Super Bowl. He just hasn’t done it yet, and he must - and does - accept a measure of culpability.
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