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Predicting South Carolina’s 2024 football results, including a signature SEC upset

Forget ESPN’s FPI rankings. Forget the Vegas betting lines or the Magic 8 Ball or however anyone tries to forecast a football season.

Let’s go off gut.

South Carolina football is coming off a 5-7 season in 2023, the first time under coach Shane Beamer that the Gamecocks failed to make a bowl game. But in 2024, they have a new quarterback. They have a new running back. They have a new freshman sensation.

It’s a new season. So let’s predict how it’s gonna unfold.

Aug. 31: vs. Old Dominion

Forget the opponent. This game will be billed as the day in which LaNorris Sellers made his first collegiate start. Luckily for the redshirt freshman, his first exam isn’t too daunting.

Old Dominion, which plays in Conference USA, is coming off a 6-7 season and is just two years removed from beating a Power-4 foe (Virginia Tech), though that came with the Monarchs playing at home.

Under Beamer, the Gamecocks have never lost to a Group-of-5 squad and I don’t see it happening this year.

  • Projected record to date: 1-0

Sept. 7: at Kentucky

This is a make-or-break game — for both squads. To lose in Lexington would be to almost lose the season. Gone would be any playoff hope. Gone would be the chances of a 10-win season. And gone would be the glowing perception of Sellers.

But the sky-is-falling talk will have to wait.

I think Sellers will get his first-start jitters out of the way against Old Dominion and find success against a Kentucky pass defense that was one of the worst in the SEC last season. Also helping the Gamecocks: There’s a chance Wildcats running back Chip Trayanum will miss the game with a hand injury.

I expect South Carolina to make it three straight wins over the Wildcats.

  • Projected record to date: 2-0

Sept. 14: vs. No. 13 LSU

Get ready for a football game played on the surface of the sun because South Carolina and LSU are kicking off at noon. Start hydrating now — it’s gonna be toasty. It’s also going to mark just the first time the Tigers have visited Columbia since 2008.

Though both squads will be sporting new quarterbacks — Garrett Nussmeier will start for LSU with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels off to the NFL — the schedule sets up better for the Tigers. They get their tough test out of the gate, facing Southern Cal in Las Vegas before playing FCS Nicholls State in Week 2.

LSU will be better rested. They won’t be deterred by the heat and humidity. I think they squeak this one out.

  • Projected record to date: 2-1

Sept. 21: vs. Akron

The Zips are coached by a former Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead, who never faced South Carolina while he led the Bulldogs. This might be an ugly introduction to the Gamecocks.

Fired up and pesky coming off a loss to LSU, South Carolina should have no trouble getting after Akron. Last season, the Zips went 2-10 and lost all seven of their road games. South Carolina has its backups in by the middle of the third quarter and quarterback Robby Ashford rushes for two touchdowns in the second half.

  • Projected record to date: 3-1

Oct. 5: vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

This might be the most-anticipated game of the season. The return of wide receiver Juice Wells. A possible night game. Likely the highest-ranked team to visit Columbia in two years. Williams-Brice Stadium is gonna be rocking.

And when the final buzzer sounds, the South Carolina students will get to celebrate on the field before heading to Five Points for an after-party.

Here’s the case for it: Ole Miss will be fresh off a game against Kentucky. South Carolina is coming off a bye. That’s seven extra days of preparation for the Gamecocks, who also have the luxury of a charged-up crowd. While Beamer is 2-1 after bye weeks since taking over at USC, the Gamecocks did blow a game to Florida last season right after a week off.

Still, Ole Miss hasn’t proved any championship pedigree under Lane Kiffin. I think the Rebels are going to get caught looking ahead — Ole Miss plays under the lights at LSU the next week — the crowd is going to get to them and South Carolina’s pass rush is going to disrupt Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart.

  • Projected record to date: 4-1

Oct. 12: at No. 5 Alabama

South Carolina gets bit by the hangover game. A week after knocking off Ole Miss — with kids wearing their Sellers’ rec-specs and Beamer chatting with Stephen A. Smith on “Get Up” — the Gamecocks will fall back to Earth.

This, of course, will be the first time South Carolina has faced a Kalen DeBoer-led Crimson Tide team, but that doesn’t change that Alabama is still Alabama. Under Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide lost at home just nine times.

I think Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe will be able to run away from the Gamecocks’ pass rushers and the Crimson Tide will stifle Sellers and running back Rocket Sanders.

  • Projected record to date: 4-2

Oct. 19: at No. 16 Oklahoma

In the week leading up to South Carolina’s first-ever game against Oklahoma, Beamer — a Sooners assistant coach from 2018 to 2020 — will be asked a thousand times about his thoughts of returning to Norman.

If this game was in Columbia, I think South Carolina takes it. But because it’s in Norman — and despite the fact it’s right after the Red River Rivalry — I think the Sooners come away with a victory. The story of the contest might be Oklahoma second-year QB Jackson Arnold out-dueling South Carolina’s second-year QB in Sellers.

  • Projected record to date: 4-3

Nov. 2: vs. No. 20 Texas A&M

This is South Carolina’s only guaranteed night game against an SEC opponent. It’ll also be a nice reprieve from the hellish three opponents the Gamecocks played in October, and South Carolina will take advantage of that.

The Aggies are ranked to start the season and their schedule is manageable enough to think they could be ranked come November. But QB Conner Weigman is unproven. Their starting running back, Rueben Owens, is out for the season. And their defensive line — which helped Texas A&M have the best rushing defense in the SEC — lost a handful of top guys to the portal.

Texas A&M is 9-1 against South Carolina. In games in Columbia with Beamer at the helm, however, USC is 1-0. Expect that to be 2-0.

  • Projected record to date: 5-3

Nov. 9: at Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is the gift that keeps on giving. The Gamecocks aren’t proponents of going to a nine-game SEC schedule because, by playing Clemson every year, they’d basically be playing 10 SEC games.

But South Carolina might be fine with nine SEC games if Vandy is automatically one of them. In this exercise, the Gamecocks earn bowl eligibility in Nashville and keep (slim) hopes alive for a 10-win season.

The Commodores don’t have a win over South Carolina since 2008, and this Vanderbilt team doesn’t have enough talent to change that. Sanders might be able to run for 300 yards.

  • Projected record to date: 6-3

Nov. 16: vs. No. 11 Missouri

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz dominates South Carolina, and it makes no sense. As the head coach of Appalachian State in 2019, he beat the Gamecocks in Williams-Brice Stadium. Then at Missouri, he’s a perfect 4-for-4 against USC, including a 34-12 victory last season.

Drinkwitz continues to be Gamecocks kryptonite, and the Gamecocks fall at Williams-Brice Stadium for the first time all season.

The Tigers, fresh off an 11-2 season, again dismantle South Carolina’s secondary with the combination of quarterback Brady Cook and All-American wide receiver Luther Burden III.

  • Projected record to date: 6-4

Nov. 23: vs. Wofford

Wofford will collect a nice check and a massive loss. Even by FCS standards, the Terriers are bad. They went 2-9 last season, losing their first nine games before somehow turning it around and finishing the season with wins over The Citadel and Furman.

South Carolina wins going away in one of those let’s-play-everyone-who-will-redshirt games. The NCAA allows players to participate in four games while still being eligible for a redshirt, which means you see some of the young offensive line and skill guys getting important game experience.

  • Projected record to date: 7-4

Nov. 30: at No. 14 Clemson

It’s deja vu from 2022. South Carolina is 7-4 and heading to Clemson with the chance to turn a good season into a great one. Only Clemson doesn’t fumble a late-game punt this time. They don’t commit egregious errors. And South Carolina punter Kai Kroeger isn’t as good on this day.

I think Clemson gets it done at home. Junior quarterback junior Cade Klubnik, who has been much maligned all year, wins the game by throwing 50-50 balls to his treasure trove of stud receivers and exploiting the Gamecocks’ secondary. Sellers plays well, but Clemson wins the Palmetto Bowl and stays in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth.

The end result for South Carolina: seven regular-season wins with a 4-4 SEC record, and another bowl game.

The pictures of South Carolina fans rushing the field after the Ole Miss game will be hanging around the school by January. Beamer is off any hot-seat lists. And the Gamecocks feel great heading into 2025 with Sellers leading the offense.

  • Final record prediction for the regular season: 7-5