Predicting the Panthers’ 2024 season: Will Dave Canales, Bryce Young turn things around?

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For some, last year’s abysmal Carolina Panthers campaign lingers in the memory like it happened roughly a decade ago. For others, particularly those who are able to compartmentalize the offseason, the scars of the 2-15 disaster of 2023 are still somewhat fresh.

But the brass in uptown Charlotte is hoping that a big batch of fresh faces can help the Carolina faithful forget the sting of the Frank Reich era (and the Matt Rhule era, too), and embrace the optimism that first-year head coach Dave Canales brings to the franchise.

With 24 new players on the roster and an entirely new offensive staff, the Panthers are hoping to create a building-block season for their retooling organization. First-year general manager Dan Morgan, a former Panthers player-turned-Carolina top executive, has reworked the depth chart and, in theory, upgraded a few positions after last season’s last-place finish.

So, what will the Panthers look like in 2024? Observer’s staffers got to together to make some predictions, which we hope will be a bit more on point than last year’s projections, which were on par with the Panthers’ not-so-excellent adventure with Reich.

What will be the Panthers’ 2024 win-loss record?

Mike Kaye: 6-11. The Panthers aren’t putting external expectations on the 2024 season. That’s probably for the best, as this team is in need of a massive turnaround in all facets.

After years of mediocrity, last year’s rock bottom actually gave the Panthers some runway to grow without pressure. Really, there’s only one way to go after producing the worst record of the relatively new 17-game season era.

But how improved are the Panthers? That’s tough to grasp after the starting groups got just one series in the preseason finale against the Buffalo Bills.

Still, training camp had great energy and competition, and Canales appears to be a legitimate problem-solver as an offensive play-caller. QB Bryce Young appeared to take massive steps forward with his mechanics, accuracy, mobility, and confidence in training camp practice, while fellow second-year wideout Jonathan Mingo bounced back in a big way this summer after a forgettable rookie season. No. 1 wideout Diontae Johnson and No. 1 running back Chuba Hubbard both had impressive summer slates as well.

Defensively, there are 15 new faces, including five contributors claimed off waivers just last week. While the arrivals of Jadeveon Clowney, Josey Jewell, A’Shawn Robinson and Jordan Fuller should help improve the run defense, opposing QBs could have a lot of success this year against a middling cornerback group — outside of oft-injured No. 1 corner Jaycee Horn — and a paper-thin outside linebacker depth chart.

So while the Panthers are selling “no expectations” with a side of smiling optimism, it’s fair to be wary of the upside with this bunch. That said, incremental growth would be a minor win for the franchise.

Six wins would triple last year’s total and eclipse any win total produced by Rhule, showing a leap in the right direction.

Alex Zietlow: 5-12. Mike so eloquently spelled out the awful 2023 these Panthers are trying to shed and the difficult road in 2024 they’ll have to tame. I won’t rehash all that. I’ll instead try to pass on a lesson I learned last year, and that’s this: Good vibes spring eternal in training camp. Enjoy them, but keep your eyes clear.

Before settling on this 5-12 prediction, I took a trip down memory lane. It wasn’t glorious. I said the Panthers would go 10-7 — a prognostication I punctuated, to be fair, with “See you in January (if I’m still employed by then).” I said Jaycee Horn would be the team’s defensive MVP (with the caveat of him staying healthy). I said Jonathan Mingo was going to be the team’s rookie of the year and that the Panthers’ defense will lead the NFC South in sacks and that Bryce Young will lead an offense that will almost certainly be upgraded from the one that finished out the 2022 season.

In a word: Woof. That won’t happen again. No Dave Canales positivity will distract me from the fact that Young still has a bunch to prove, that the receiving corps is void of a codified star and that the defense lost a ton of talent from 2023. They’ll be better. But marginally. 5-12.

Scott Fowler: 7-10. Well, I’m not going to predict the same as my fine colleagues, who chose the numbers directly on either side of what Las Vegas thinks the Panthers will do (their over-under win total is 5.5). And 4-13 seems a bit low. So I’m going to go ahead and be the optimist among us this year, figuring the Panthers can luck into seven wins given the weakness of the NFC South, a team that looks somewhat more talented and an obviously more confident Bryce Young.

Who will be the team’s offensive MVP?

Mike Kaye: Bryce Young. In order for this team to take a big step forward in the standings, Young needs to continue to progress as a signal-caller, and after his training camp turnaround this summer, there’s a reason to believe he can make an adequate second-year jump. Young doesn’t have to be Superman, but it would be nice to see a lot of “Bama” Bryce in Charlotte in 2024.

Alex Zietlow: Chuba Hubbard. This should really go to the trio of interior offensive linemen the Panthers have asked so much of this offseason, but since that’s not how these awards work, we’re going to roll with Hubbard. The 2021 fourth-round draft pick is healthy and on a contract year — and he’s playing for a coach who has said and has proven that he’s stubborn about running the ball. I expect Hubbard to get nearly 20 touches a game. What he does with those opportunities could make this offense fun to watch.

Scott Fowler: Robert Hunt. Young will obviously generate the headlines, because quarterbacks always do, but the Panthers’ new massive offensive guard is going to make, quite literally, a huge difference.

Who will be the team’s defensive MVP?

Mike Kaye: Jaycee Horn. The 2021 first-round pick needs to stay on the field for the Panthers to have any success in the secondary. The Panthers picked up Horn’s guaranteed fifth-year option for next season, and he needs to prove that wasn’t the latest in a long line of major mistakes made by the franchise.

Alex Zietlow: Josey Jewell. The inside linebacker the Panthers acquired in free agency after a resurgent season in Denver looked really good in the preseason. He stayed healthy. He looked comfortable. His teammates, particularly Shaq Thompson, love him. I expect him to benefit from the inflated tackle numbers this Ejiro Evero 3-4 scheme can furnish — think how Frankie Luvu balled a season ago — and thus become the most valuable guy on this defense.

Scott Fowler: Derrick Brown. He had an extraordinary season last year that got lost in the wash of the Panthers’ 2-15 mark. But football people know what’s up with Brown, one of the best interior linemen in the NFL.

Who will be the team’s rookie of the year?

Mike Kaye: Trevin Wallace. The third-round pick has excellent upside, and he showed off his playmaking ability throughout training camp. While Jewell and Shaq Thompson will start the season ahead of Wallace on the depth chart, it’s a safe bet that the rookie will see action on defense in sub-packages and eventually succeed one of the veterans as a full-time starter by season’s end.

Alex Zietlow: Ja’Tavion Sanders. The fourth-round draft pick tight end has flashed in the preseason and will get his opportunities early, particularly with the unclear injury timeline of Ian Thomas. Having someone like Jordan Matthews to learn from, be influenced by, spells good things for him as well. Put me down for 500 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns on the year for Sanders — which will put him in the team’s ROY conversation.

Scott Fowler: Xavier Legette. The Panthers’ latest first-round draft choice never really made a mark in the preseason. But he’s a big, fast receiver who’s going to get opportunities, and South Carolina fans know that he can do something with them.

What will be the biggest surprise of the season?

Mike Kaye: Chuba Hubbard as RB1. While national media has been overfeeding the Jonathon Brooks hype train all offseason, Hubbard has remained steadfast as the Panthers’ top ball-carrier. As Hubbard enters a contract year, the Panthers have every reason to empty his tank, and the running back has every reason to take advantage of that bulk workload (spoiler alert: he will).

Alex Zietlow: A defense that ... can turn the ball over? I imbue this declaration with such precarity because even this “surprise” feels like a stretch. Carolina finished last — last! — in forced turnovers in 2023. The team finished 28th in 2022 and 31st in 2021. In fact, it hasn’t had a plus-turnover margin since 2020 (and even that was +1). That said, this Evero-led defense has emphasized making “attacks” on the ball — averaging upwards of 60 or so strip/punchout attempts a practice — and the coverages have yielded a bunch of interceptions this offseason, including two against Aaron Rodgers during the team’s training camp joint practice with the Jets. Good signs. I actually feel OK about this one.

Scott Fowler: David Tepper not only won’t fire Dave Canales in his first season as a coach — as the Panthers owner did with first-year Carolina coach Frank Reich in 2023 after only 11 games — he will stay very much in the background and let his football people do football things.

Who will win the NFC South?

Mike Kaye: Atlanta Falcons. The NFC South division wasteland mirrors the scenery of a Mad Max dystopian film. But if Kirk Cousins is fully recovered from Achilles surgery, he’s easily the best QB in the division with the best roster of the four NFC South squads — for whatever that’s worth.

Alex Zietlow: Atlanta Falcons. What Mike said. To say the Falcons are the division’s most talented team isn’t a great endorsement for the NFC South. It’s nonetheless true. I predict Baker Mayfield regresses to the mean in Year 2 in Tampa Bay, the Panthers embark on their rebuild (retooling effort?) and the New Orleans Saints finish strong but struggle with a front-loaded schedule.

Scott Fowler: Tampa Bay. I know the Falcons are the favorite in the division, but the Bucs have won the NFC South the past three years in a row. Head coach Todd Bowles will get it done again.