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Power Rankings: Denny Hamlin heads into the Chase at No. 1
Welcome to Power Rankings. As always, Power Rankings are far from a scientific formula. In fact, it’s the perfect blend of analytics and bias against your favorite driver. Direct all your complaints to us at happyhourmailbag@yahoo.com and we’ll try to have some fun.
1. Denny Hamlin (LW: 3): Come on Denny, that was a weak performance Saturday night. Only leading 189 laps from the pole on the way to the win? Should have done better than that.
Hopefully you sense the sarcasm there. Last time Hamlin started first at Richmond he led 381 laps. But he didn’t win the race because of a tire problem. Going out on a huge limb here, but we’re assuming Hamlin would take Saturday’s performance over that domination-turned-heartbreak.
We noted it Monday in our breakdown of all 16 Chase drivers, but Hamlin’s currently the hottest driver in NASCAR. He’s got 11-straight top-10 finishes and drives for the fastest team on the circuit. It’s why he’s our pick for the title.
2. Kevin Harvick (LW: 2): Harvick is going to be one of the drivers Hamlin will have to beat in the final round. Saturday, less than a week after he criticized his pit crew for potentially costing him the win on Darlington, Harvick committed a pit road miscue of his own when he got caught for speeding. But that penalty probably didn’t cost Harvick a shot at the win given the Richmond dominance of the Toyotas. Harvick finished fifth.
3. Martin Truex Jr. (LW: 3): The only driver to lead more laps than Hamlin was Truex, who led 193. Yes, that means the two drivers led a combined 382 of 407 laps. Truex, who finished third, gets a lot of credit for Hamlin’s win. Had Truex not moved up in front of a hard-charging Kyle Larson (who had fresh tires for the final two-lap restart), Hamlin would’ve needed to fight a lot harder for the win in the final two corners.
4. Brad Keselowski (LW: 4): Keselowski and Harvick may be taking similar routes throughout the Chase. They’re the drivers of the two best non-Joe Gibbs Racing teams on the circuit and have mastered the art of consistency. They finished next to each other in the race results at Richmond too, as Keselowski was fourth. As you’re blinded by the Toyota speed, the No. 2 and the No. 4 won’t be far behind.
5. Kyle Larson (LW: 6): Larson and crew chief Chad Johnston made a hell of a call pitting on the final caution. With a win and a guaranteed spot in the Chase, the tire play was worth the risk. Larson wasn’t going to win the race on old tires and the points reset for the Chase after the race. Wonder if Larson is replaying those final two laps in his head and wondering how close he could have gotten to Hamlin if he wasn’t held up by Truex?
6. Kyle Busch (LW: 5): We’re really trying to be bullish about Busch’s chances in the Chase, but his inability to avoid crappy luck and bad finishes this season is blunting our optimism. Busch also hasn’t finished in the top five since he won at Indianapolis. Though we’ll counter that sentence by noting he’s gotten four top-11 finishes since, a stretch that’s included Michigan and Bristol, two tracks that haven’t been kind to him recently.
So what we’re saying is that we won’t be surprised if Busch is out of the Chase in the second round or if he’s racing for a second-straight title at Homestead.
7. Joey Logano (LW: 7): Logano finished 10th on Saturday and is likely looking for a much less eventful Chase. Well, a couple of wins would be nice, but staying away from contact with Matt Kenseth (or any other driver, really) is probably a good idea.
8. Jimmie Johnson (LW: 8): Remember when Kevin Harvick pushed Jimmie Johnson at Chicago last year? The coach lot fracas would have been the conflict of the Chase had the Logano and Kenseth soap opera not developed. And, we must note, the contact between the two at Chicago wouldn’t have been as big a deal as it was had Harvick pitted for the cut tire before he crashed. Always play it conservatively, crew chiefs. Oh, Johnson finished 11th at Richmond.
9. Jamie McMurray (LW: 10): McMurray is on Hamlin-type run to enter the Chase too. Well, on a slightly smaller scale. Kyle Larson isn’t the only Ganassi car that has been fast recently and McMurray finished seventh at Richmond. He could advance a round or two if he keeps hanging around the top 10 and avoiding trouble.
10. Kurt Busch (LW: 11): Busch finished eighth, his first top-10 finish since Pocono in August and just his third top-10 finish since he was 10th at Sonoma for his 14th top-10 in the first 16 races.
If Busch ends the season like he started he’s going to be nearly impossible to beat through the first three rounds of the Chase. But if his Chase goes the way his most recent 10 races have gone, there’s not a lot to like about his chances.
11. Chase Elliott (LW: 9): Elliott’s also a driver that’s sliding into the Chase. He qualified terribly at Richmond and finished 19th. The stretch of great form he had throughout the spring and early summer is gone; though there may be a bit of a comeback brewing. After a stretch of four of five races with finishes below 30th, Elliott’s finished in the top 20 in the last five.
12. Everyone else who is in the Chase: There’s no point trying to single out another driver for 12th. Want Austin Dillon in this spot? He’s here. Like Chris Buescher’s underdog story? He’s here too. There’s space for Tony Stewart’s retirement tour, Matt Kenseth’s Chase redemption and Carl Edwards’ bid for his first win since April.
Lucky Dog: Kasey Kahne finshed sixth and ran in the top 10 for most of the evening. It was too little, too late for his Chase chances.
The DNF: Landon Cassill ended the race still running, but his car headed behind the wall early because of a brake issue. Coincidentally or not, Cassill entered the race 10 points ahead of teammate Chris Buescher for 30th in the owner’s points standings. Buescher finished 24th, 12 spots ahead of Cassill, and ended the regular season in the top 30 of the owner’s points. That means Buescher’s car is also in the owner’s Chase and eligible for the significant sum of money that comes with the privilege.
Dropped Out: Matt Kenseth
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
