The potential Heat upside for waiting until July to move Butler. Examining all scenarios

In the wake of Jimmy Butler asking the Miami Heat to trade him, and irreparably damaging the relationship, the Heat essentially has three options with its disgruntled star: deal him before the Feb. 6 NBA trade deadline; help facilitate a trade with Butler this summer or trade him in July if he surprisingly opts into a $52.4 million contract; or tell him he’s on his own as a free agent this summer and sit out any transaction involving Butler.

There are positives — and risks — with each.

Two other scenarios now seem out of the question — Miami relenting and giving him a max salary in 2026-27 or the sides reaching a compromise deal. Butler is angry that the Heat didn’t offer him a max extension, and the Heat is angry how he has handled this. So a compromise seems unrealistic.

Butler has informed the Heat that he’ll accept whatever the team decides to do next, whether it’s a trade to any of the 29 other NBA teams or play out the rest of the season in Miami, according to league sources.

Exploring the three most realistic scenarios and which could benefit the Heat the most:

A trade before Feb. 6

The upshot for the Heat: Miami would eliminate a big distraction and move on to the next era of Heat basketball.

But even though a divorce before the trade deadline would make some sense in that regard, the problem is none of the teams bandied about as potential options necessarily have a package that would appeal to Miami.

With Golden State, the potential problem — from a Heat standpoint — would be taking on the final 2 ½ years of Andrew Wiggins’ contract that pays him $28.2 million and $30.2 million the next two seasons. One of many reasons that the Heat is more than $15 million above the tax line is that the team is paying between $19 million and $25 million a year for two players who aren’t All-Star-caliber: Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier.

Can Miami afford a third such richly paid non-All-Star, with Bam Adebayo already earning max money and Tyler Herro averaging $30 million in his contract?

With Phoenix, the Heat would have no interest in taking on Bradley Beal, who has durability issues and $160 million remaining on his contract. If Kevin Durant asks out, then the Suns would become a logical partner.

Houston has told people it won’t pursue Butler. Dallas lacks the enticing pieces to make an offer.

So unless a surprise team surfaces — and that sometimes happens when stars are available — finding the right fit will be challenging, especially because the Heat loathes the idea of taking back inferior players, bad contracts and a bunch of draft picks in this type of transaction.

Miami typically likes to get the best player back in any deal, and it’s difficult to envision that happening with Butler.

While Denver could offer Michael Porter Jr., the Nuggets don’t have any first-round picks to dangle. And Porter has a hefty salary for a player who has never been an All-Star — $38.3 million next season and $40.8 million in 2026-27.

With most of these potential suitors, a third team would need to be involved because of salary cap/tax apron rules. But options are limited; every team in the league is above the cap except Detroit, which is $14 million under, per spotrac.com.

Trading Butler this summer

This could be executed in two potential ways: 1). Butler changes his mind and opts into $52.4 million for next season, for the purpose of facilitating a prearranged trade. 2). Butler opts out and the Heat helps him get max money elsewhere by agreeing to participate in the sign-and-trade transaction.

The challenge is that any team that wants Butler and lacks cap space would need to send out salaries similar in value to Butler’s first-year salary. And if the Heat doesn’t want the players being dangled by a Butler suitor, a third and perhaps fourth team with sufficient cap space to absorb those salaries would be needed.

It would be much easier to find a third or fourth team in the summer than now; per spotrac.com, 11 teams are in position to easily clear out cap space this summer, and nine can clear out significant space.

But the upshot for Miami, in terms of flexibility, would be enormous.

The six-team trade that sent Klay Thompson from Golden State to Dallas last July provides a template for how such a summer Butler trade could work for Miami.

After Thompson committed to join the Mavericks in a three-year, $50 million deal, Charlotte was included to facilitate the deal from a cap standpoint, and the Warriors were set to receive only two future second-round draft picks to avoid taking on another salary in return.

Here was the catch, which is a model the Heat can use: By taking back no salary in the Thompson part of the transaction, the Warriors created a trade exception close to $16 million (Thompson’s first-year Mavericks salary) to use for future moves.

That trade exception permitted Golden State to acquire guard Buddy Hield and forward Kyle Anderson in sign-and-trades, with both earning $8.8 million in the first year of multiyear deals. Six teams, an NBA record, ultimately were needed to pull off the trade.

So the Warriors received neither a frontline starter nor a first-round pick in the Thompson transaction but emerged with two rotation players: Hield (who is averaging 12.6 points on 39.3 shooting from threes) and Anderson, who hasn’t played as much as expected but is a serviceable player with 306 NBA starts.

If the Heat used this model to execute a Butler sign-and-trade, Miami would need to find a team or teams to absorb contracts of players it doesn’t want (from the team acquiring Butler) but could then create a trade exception equal to Butler’s first-year salary to acquire other players it covets, including 2025 free agents. That trade exception could be used for a year.

Teams that can easily clear out cap space to help the Heat and a Butler suitor facilitate such a trade in July include Charlotte ($30 million in projected practical cap space, per spotrac), Utah ($14 million), San Antonio ($27.9 million), Detroit ($24.6 million), New Orleans ($33.8 million), Washington ($19 million), Houston ($19 million), Chicago ($17 million) and Brooklyn ($91 million).

So this would be the enticing scenario in play: If the Heat and Butler can find third or potentially fourth teams to absorb salary from the team acquiring Butler in a Butler sign and trade, and if Miami takes no money back from the team acquiring Butler, then the Heat would have:

1). A Butler trade exception of more than $40 million — whatever his first-year salary is.

2). A non-taxpayer midlevel exception of $14 million.

3). A biannual exception of $5.1 million.

The Heat could not use all the money of all three but could use a combination of the first and the other two — or most of the first and all of the second — depending on how much other salary it could dump.

Not counting Butler if he exercises his opt out, Miami would have 10 players under contract for 2025-26 if it doesn’t trade one of the 10 in the months ahead: Bam Adebayo ($37.1 million), Tyler Herro ($31 million), Terry Rozier ($26.6 million), Duncan Robinson ($19.9 million), Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3.9 million), Nikola Jovic ($4.4 million), Kevin Love ($4.1 million), Haywood Highsmith ($5.7 million), Pelle Larson ($1.9 million) and Kel’el Ware ($4.5 million). An 11th player, Keshad Johnson, has a $1.9 million team option.,

That would leave the Heat at about $141 million in commitments. The 2025-26 cap is projected to be $154.6 million and the projected luxury tax line is $187.9 million. So the Heat would have nearly $50 million in space to work with, though it couldn’t simply sign a free agent to that amount with a sign-and-trade.

While teams under the cap cannot use a trade exception, there is a key caveat that would allow the Heat to do it:

If a team makes a deal that will leave its total salary more than $250,000 above the salary cap, the club can use a traded player exception to ensure the trade is legal under CBA guidelines.

So the Heat could use part of a huge trade exception for Butler, provided it leaves Miami over the $154.6 million cap.

Depending on the amount of salary acquired, Miami still could use its $14 million mid-level exception and come in below the $187.9 million luxury tax line.

This explains why the idea of trading Butler, without getting players back specifically from the team acquiring him, would appeal to Miami.

Butler leaves on his own without Heat’s help

This scenario seems the most unlikely, because only the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets are currently positioned to have enough cap space to sign Butler to a max deal without needing the Heat to help facilitate the transaction.

In that scenario, Miami would have about $13 million in cap space and could create $10 million more in space by waiving Robinson, who has only $9.8 million guaranteed in 2025-26. So the Heat could clear out $23 million in space and be able to take back more money than it sends out in trades.

But teams operating as “room teams” — meaning, using cap space — cannot use exception money (midlevel or biannual). And if the Heat isn’t involved in a Butler sign-and-trade, there would be no trade exception created for Miami to use.

More fallout

Hours before Butler’s fiery postgame news conference on Thursday, there was a conversation between Heat officials and Butler’s representation, according to league sources.

Butler was bothered after the discussion because Butler and his agent perceived that Heat officials were implying that Butler didn’t play his hardest in the Heat’s home win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Butler scored nine points on five shots and did not play in the fourth quarter of that contest in his first game after a five-game absence stemming from an illness.

But the Heat contends that it was a more macro level discussion regarding the team’s concern over Butler’s behavior in recent weeks since the trade noise has grown louder.

Butler’s camp left that Thursday conversation with the perception that the Heat was considering suspending him for his effort in Wednesday’s victory over the Pelicans, but the Heat insists it never threatened Butler with a suspension for that reason.