Portugal route to Euro 2024 final: Potential path and opponents on tough side of draw

Portugal sealed their spot in the last 16 of Euro 2024, so who could they face en route to a potential final?

The 2016 champions entered the tournament as the fifth favourites to bring home the trophy this summer. Roberto Martinez’s side qualified from Group J to reach Euro 2024, winning all 10 0f their matches in their qualification campaign.

They were drawn into Group F at the finals and won their opening games against Czech Republic and Turkey which secured their spot as group winners. But there would be no perfect ending, with Georgia producing a shock result in their final group match.

Portugal’s potential route to Euro 2024 final

Portugal’s Group F fixtures

2-1 vs Czech Republic– Portugal’s opening game of Euro 2024 saw them beat the Czech Republic 2-1 courtesy of a last-minute goal from substitute Francisco Conceição. It leaves them level on points from Turkey, who beat Georgia 3-1 in their opener.

3-0 vs Turkey – On paper, this was expected to be Portugal’s sternest challenge in the group phase, especially coming off their respective opening results. Turkey were ruthless in their win over Georgia, while Portugal needed late heroics off the bench to beat a resilient Czech Republic side. However, this was anything but as Portugal steamrolled to victory. If anything, Turkey were the architects of their downfall, and Portugal would not pass up any opportunities, with Premier League stars Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes netting either side of a bizarre Samet Akaydın own goal.

0-2 vs Georgia – Many expected Portugal to wrap up three wins from three against Georgia, who were yet to win on their major tournament debut. But a much-changed Portugal XI struggled and gave away two goals. The first came through an error inside the opening two minutes, before a second-half penalty secured Georgia’s win. Fortunately for Portugal they had already secured top spot, finishing above Turkey on their head-to-head record.

Portugal’s route as Group F winners

Last 16: As Group F winners, Portugal will face the third-placed from Group C in the last 16 – placing them against Slovenia.

Quarter-finals: It’s a tough run to the final now for Portugal. Should they get through the last 16 as expected, France or Belgium await in the quarter-finals.

Semi-finals: In the semi-finals, Spain or Germany are the likely opponents, though Denmark are also a possibility, should they beat the tournament hosts in the last 16.

Final: Based on odds, England are the most likely opponent in the final. But Gareth Southgate’s side have underwhelmed, so Netherlands and Italy could also be potential opponents for Portugal.

Portugal’s reasons for optimism

Portugal have plenty going for them despite their poor showing at Euro 2020. They finished qualifying with a 100% record and just one goal conceded as they cruised to a place in Germany. They will be looking to recreate their famous triumph in 2016 when they lifted the trophy for the first time.

Robert Martinez seems to have gelled them together well and with 39-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo still going strong and looking to set even more records during the tournament. They have a host of experienced players to call on, including the eternal Pepe at centre-back, mixed well with some up and coming talents, including Benfica’s Joao Neves.

Portugal’s potential roadblocks

Despite their perfect qualifying record, Portugal still may have some concerns at the tournament.

Euro 2020 was a disaster for them after trying to defend their title. They made it to the knockout stages by the skin of their teeth after finishing as one of the best third placed sides after a tough group consisting of themselves, France, Germany and Hungary. However, the last 16 was as far as they got as they crashed out to Belgium.

This will be the back of their mind as they are in the harder side of the draw.

Roberto Martinez tactical insights

As per our guide to the Portugal squad, after starting with a 3-4-3, Roberto Martinez has moved to a back four though he is very flexible depending on the opposition. In the group stage, Portugal played with a back three twice, matching their opponents’ formation against Czech Republic and Georgia. Against Turkey’s 4-2-3-1, Portugal played a 4-2-3-1.

The striker and wingers pick themselves with Cristiano Ronaldo through the middle, flanked by Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva, whether in a front three or as part of a front four. Goncalo Ramos and Joao Felix provide other options through the middle.

The midfield three more or less picks itself too. Joao Palhinha starts at the base of the midfield when there are three midfielders, with Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha joining him. That was the preferred duo in a 3-4-3, but the 4-2-3-1 pushing Fernandes further up the pitch.

Then we have the defence. Diogo Costa looks to have the goalkeeper spot nailed down, but Rui Patricio will be hoping to push him all the way. Joao Cancelo will likely play on the left, giving Portugal the option for more control on the ball, while Diogo Dalot provides the width on the right. Ruben Dias will be one of the centre-backs, and 41-year-old Pepe has got the nod over the younger centre-backs in the squad.

Fan and Media Perspectives

Fans are always confident of Portugal doing well then they have Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Roberto Martinez seems to won them over. This is completely different to when Fernando Santos was in charge, with fans constantly upset with his tactics before he was replaced in December 2022.

The media were hugely critical of Portugal after their poor showing at the last European Championships, but Cristiano Ronaldo’s decision to move to Coca-Cola bottles during his press conference put the spotlight more on him than the team.