Portugal route to Euro 2024 final: Potential path and opponents in tough run

Portugal have sealed their spot in the last 16 of Euro 2024, so who could they face en route to a potential final?

The 2016 champions entered the tournament as the fifth favourites to bring home the trophy this summer. They were drawn into Group F at the finals and won their opening games against Czech Republic and Turkey which secured their spot as group winners. But there would be no perfect ending, with Georgia producing a shock result in their final group match.

Portugal’s potential route to Euro 2024 final

Portugal’s Group F fixtures

2-1 vs Czech Republic– Portugal’s opening game of Euro 2024 saw them beat the Czech Republic 2-1 courtesy of a last-minute goal from substitute Francisco Conceição. They did have to come from behind, however, initially trailing to Lukas Provod’s goal — before an own goal put them back on level terms.

3-0 vs Turkey – On paper, this was expected to be Portugal’s sternest challenge in the group phase, especially coming off their respective opening results. Turkey were ruthless in their win over Georgia, while Portugal needed late heroics off the bench to beat a resilient Czech Republic side. However, this was anything but as Portugal steamrolled to victory. If anything, Turkey were the architects of their downfall, and Portugal would not pass up any opportunities, with Premier League stars Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes netting either side of a bizarre Samet Akaydın own goal.

0-2 vs Georgia – Many expected Portugal to wrap up three wins from three against Georgia, who were yet to win on their major tournament debut. But a much-changed Portugal XI struggled and gave away two goals. The first came through an error inside the opening two minutes, before a second-half penalty secured Georgia’s win. Fortunately for Portugal they had already secured top spot, finishing above Turkey on their head-to-head record.

Portugal’s route as Group F winners

Last 16: As Group F winners, Portugal will face the third-placed from Group C in the last 16, Slovenia.

Quarter-finals: It’s a tough run to the final now for Portugal. Should they get through the last 16 as expected, France or Belgium await in the quarter-finals.

Semi-finals: In the semi-finals, Spain or Germany will be the opponents, after they beat Georgia and Denmark respectively to meet in the quarter-finals.

Final: Based on odds, England are the most likely opponent in the final. But Gareth Southgate’s side have underwhelmed, so Netherlands and Switzerland could also be potential opponents for Portugal.

Portugal’s reasons for optimism

Portugal have plenty going for them despite their poor showing at Euro 2020. They finished qualifying with a 100% record and just one goal conceded as they cruised to a place in Germany. They will be looking to recreate their famous triumph in 2016 when they lifted the trophy for the first time. And they’re already looking stronger than they did eight years ago, when they scraped through the group stage with three draws.

In his short time as manager, Roberto Martinez seems to have gelled Portugal’s team together well. They have a host of experienced players to call on, including the eternal Pepe at centre-back, mixed well with some up and coming talents, including Benfica’s Joao Neves. And, of course, you can’t ever count out Cristiano Ronaldo.

Portugal’s potential roadblocks

Portugal had already secured top spot in Group F going into their game against Georgia, so rotated to allow their key players rest. The defeat will come with that asterisk, but that may still be cause for concern. There were mistakes, and inexperience, in what is essentially Portugal’s B team. But at a major tournament you rely on the depth of your squad, particularly as you come to the latter stages. So Portugal may have a minor worry about the quality of their depth, should it come to it.

Of course, Portugal also have the harder side of the draw.

Roberto Martinez tactical insights

As per our guide to the Portugal squad, after starting with a 3-4-3, Roberto Martinez has moved to a back four though he is very flexible depending on the opposition. In the group stage, Portugal played with a back three twice, matching their opponents’ formation against Czech Republic and Georgia. Against Turkey’s 4-2-3-1, Portugal played a 4-2-3-1.

The striker and wingers pick themselves with Cristiano Ronaldo through the middle, flanked by Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva, whether in a front three or as part of a front four. Goncalo Ramos and Joao Felix provide other options through the middle.

The midfield three more or less picks itself too. Joao Palhinha starts at the base of the midfield when there are three midfielders, with Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha joining him. That was the preferred duo in a 3-4-3, but the 4-2-3-1 pushing Fernandes further up the pitch.

Then we have the defence. Diogo Costa looks to have the goalkeeper spot nailed down, but Rui Patricio will be hoping to push him all the way. Joao Cancelo will likely play on the left, giving Portugal the option for more control on the ball, while Diogo Dalot provides the width on the right. Ruben Dias will be one of the centre-backs, and 41-year-old Pepe has got the nod over the younger centre-backs in the squad.

Fan and Media Perspectives

Fans are always confident of Portugal doing well then they have Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Roberto Martinez seems to hav ewon them over. This is completely different to when Fernando Santos was in charge, with fans constantly upset with his tactics before he was replaced in December 2022.

The media were hugely critical of Portugal after their poor showing at the last European Championships, but Cristiano Ronaldo’s decision to move to Coca-Cola bottles during his press conference put the spotlight more on him than the team.