Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘highly likely’ and could happen on Wednesday, UK warns

A Russian invasion of Ukraine is “highly likely”, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said, admitting it could be launched as soon as Wednesday.

She also warned of a “false flag” operation just hours after a top Russian diplomat raised the threat of an invasion of Ukraine if Russian citizens are killed in a region of the country held by separatists.

Ms Truss told Sky News: “An invasion could be imminent and it’s highly likely.

“What we are doing is pursing the path of deterrence and diplomacy, urging Vladimir Putin to step back from the brink.

“We are preparing for the worst, that is why we have urged all British citizens to leave Ukraine and we are doing all we can to support the Ukrainian economy.”

Asked if an invasion could happen on Wednesday, Ms Truss told BBC Breakfast: “It could be immediate.

“We know that the Russians are ready to invade.

“What we are doing is using deterrence and diplomacy to urge them to stop an action that would be disastrous for Russia and for Putin’s future as well as disastrous to the people of Ukraine.”

Russia's Southern military district said on Tuesday its forces had started withdrawing and returning to their bases after completing drills on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine, Russian state media reported.

Russian financial markets rose strongly on Tuesday on the report as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz flew into Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin.

Interfax cited the district command as saying that some of the troops were moving to bases in Russia's southern regions of Dagestan and North Ossetia. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Earlier Vladimir Chizhov, the Russian envoy to the European Union, issued a warning which fuelled fears of a war, possibly sparked by a “false flag” operation.

“We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” Mr Chizhov said, according Russia’s RIA news agency

“If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbass or wherever.”

The Moscow-backed separatists in the Donbass region in the east of Ukraine allege that the government in the capital Kiev is preparing an offensive against them.

But Ukraine says Russia, which has amassed over 130,000 troops close to Ukrainian borders, is planning to invade its neighbour, and experts question why the Kiev government would seek to spark conflict with Moscow.

US officials have warned that Russian forces could stage a “false flag” operation, which is an act carried out with the purpose of disguising the actual source of responsibility and pinning blame on another party, to justify an invasion.

Britain’s armed forces minister James Heappey warned on Monday that he fears an invasion is “very imminent”, with an attack possibly starting as soon as Wednesday, according to some sources.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is visiting Moscow on Tuesday for eleventh-hour talks with Russian president Vladimir Putin to try to avert war.

Boris Johnson held talks on Monday with US president Joe Biden and stressed afterwards that there remained a “window” to stop a conflict.