Play-in now likely for Heat. But can it still be avoided? ‘We’ve never made it easy on ourselves’

The most important game of the Miami Heat’s regular season resulted in the most damaging loss of the Heat’s regular season.

After entering Sunday in control if its fate in terms of avoiding the NBA’s play-in tournament, the Heat ended Sunday needing a lot of help from other teams in order to avoid the play-in tournament.

What changed? The Heat fell to the Indiana Pacers, 117-115, on Sunday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in a critical game that left the winner in a good position to finish as a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference to automatically qualify for the playoffs without needing to take part in the play-in tournament. The loser, though, was left facing the likelihood of taking part in the play-in tournament next week.

Takeaways from Heat’s damaging loss to Pacers, as play-in tournament now appears likely

“When you say that there are games with meaning, that also means there are games with consequences,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said following Sunday’s costly loss. “For it to have meaning, there’s consequences if you lose. That’s the whole point of all of this right now.”

With all 30 NBA teams off Monday in observance of the NCAA men’s basketball national championship game, the Heat will enter Tuesday’s game against the Hawks in Atlanta (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with just four regular-season games remaining.

The Heat stands a half game behind the seventh-place Philadelphia 76ers and 1.5 games behind the sixth-place Pacers in the East standings.

Not only did Sunday’s result drop the Heat from seventh to eighth in the East, but the Pacers also clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Heat by winning the three-game regular-season series 2-1 and clinched the top spot in a potential three-way tiebreaker among the Heat, Pacers and 76ers based on holding the best aggregate head-to-head record in games played among the three teams this season.

All of this has led the math to indicate the Heat will likely be part of the play-in tournament for the second season in a row.

According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities report, the Heat entered Monday with a 14.1 percent chance of finishing with a top-six seed in the East to make the playoffs without needing to take part in the play-in tournament. Basketball Reference’s modeling has the Heat’s most likely finish listed at 50.3 percent for eighth place in the East (and a spot in the play-in tournament).

The Heat closes the regular season by facing the Hawks in Atlanta on Tuesday before returning to Miami to wrap up its schedule with a three-game homestand against the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday and back-to-back matchups against the Toronto Raptors on Friday and Sunday.

“If we end up in the play-in, we end up in the play-in,” Heat forward Jimmy Butler said ahead of the team’s final road game of the regular season on Tuesday against the Hawks. “We all have a job to do anyways. That’s how we’ve always played. We’ve never made it easy on ourselves. Why make it easy now?”

The play-in tournament, which features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference, begins on April 16 just two days after the Heat’s regular-season finale.

The Heat is guaranteed to finish no worse than No. 8 in the East, which means Miami will have two chances to win one game to qualify for the playoffs if it’s in the play-in tournament.

The No. 7 seed hosts the No. 8 seed in each conference in the first play-in game. While No. 8 at the moment, the Heat still controls its destiny to get home-court advantage for a potential No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in matchup.

That’s because the Heat and 76ers would both finish with 35 losses if they both win out, but the Heat would finish ahead in the East standings at No. 7 by virtue of a better conference record than the 76ers.

But climbing up to No. 6 in the conference won’t be as simple for the Heat. Miami needs a lot of help from others.

“Winning out or not, you just always got to keep that same energy,” Butler said after Sunday’s loss in Indianapolis. “You always got to smile, you always got to realize that it’s never as bad as it always seems and we get to hoop for a living. Everybody should be smiling, everybody should be having fun and everybody should be enjoying, not only playing basketball, but being around one another. ... As long as we do that, I know that the wins will come.”

Here are the most realistic, while still unlikely, paths for the Heat to finish as a top-six seed in the East and avoid the play-in tournament:

▪ The Heat wins the final four games on its regular-season schedule and the Pacers lose at least two of of their three remaining games (at Raptors, at Cleveland Cavaliers and vs. Hawks). In this scenario, the Heat and 76ers (if they win out) would finish with 35 losses and the Pacers would close with at least 36 losses. The Heat would finish as the East’s No. 6 seed ahead of the 76ers because it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of having a better conference record than Philadelphia. The Heat would also have fewer losses than the Pacers.

▪ The Heat wins out for the rest of the regular season, while the Cleveland Cavaliers lose at least two of their final three games (vs. Memphis Grizzlies, vs. Pacers and vs. Charlotte Hornets). Even if the 76ers also win out in this scenario, the Heat, 76ers and Cavaliers (if lose two of their final three games) would all finish with 35 losses and Miami would win the three-way tie based on aggregate head-to-head record in games played between the three teams this season to enter the playoffs as the East’s No. 6 seed.

▪ The Heat wins out, while the Orlando Magic loses at least three of its final four games (at Houston Rockets, at Milwaukee Bucks, at 76ers and vs. Bucks. Even if the 76ers also win out in this scenario, the Heat, Magic (if it loses three of their final four games) and 76ers would all finish with 35 losses and the Heat would win the three-way tie because the Heat would win the division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Magic. The Heat would be the No. 6 seed because the division winner wins a tie with teams that didn’t win their division. It’s important to note that pulling even with the Magic and winning the division based on holding the head-to-head tiebreaker against Orlando would unlock almost every remaining possible tie in the Heat’s advantage because it would be a division winner.

▪ The Heat wins three of its final four games, while the Magic drop its final four games and the 76ers lose at least one of their final three games (vs. Detroit Pistons, vs. Magic and vs. Brooklyn Nets). In this scenario, the Heat, Magic and 76ers (if they lose one of their final three games) would all finish with 36 losses, and the Heat would win the three-team tiebreaker to finish as the East’s No. 6 seed as the only division winner among the three teams.

▪ The Heat wins out, while the New York Knicks lose each of their final four games (at Chicago Bulls, at Boston Celtics, vs. Nets and vs Bulls). With the Knicks holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Heat, Miami needs to finish with fewer losses to pass New York in almost every scenario. In this scenario, the Heat would finish with 35 losses and the Knicks would close with 36 losses. And even if the 76ers won out to also finish with 35 losses, the Heat would move into sixth place ahead of the 76ers because it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of having a better conference record than Philadelphia. The Heat would also have fewer losses than the Knicks.

“We just need to focus on us,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “One game at a time. If we win out, we’ll see what happens.”