Pitching by the Numbers: Getting ahead

Last week we looked at pitchers’ ability to compete when behind in the count by getting outs anyway.  But the league average rate of outs on only 51% of these counts last year made it clear that Job 1 for starters is not falling behind in the first place.

We all know about the importance of the first pitch, and first-pitch strike percentage is widely available. But what is arguably even more important than that is turning a 1-1 count into a 1-2 count rather than falling behind 2-1 and giving yourself the steep, uphill climb to retire the batter.

So let’s look at how pitchers with at least 100 IP last year fared in that stat. The league-wide rate was 57%. Here are the best pitchers last year at turning the at-bat decisively into their favor instead of against them:

Remember one of the things we found last week with our “getting outs from behind in the count” stat is that the trailers were close to the league average. That meant that the leaders were hardly ever falling behind and the trailers were thus taking up the great majority of the “fall-behind” situations. And Scherzer was a trailer but we can see that not getting the outs at a good rate when behind didn’t matter so much for him because he was, more importantly, REALLY good at not falling behind.

Also, these pitchers were all generally very good. Early season vagaries have provided buying opportunities for some of these top names and McCarthy and Iwakuma, especially. McCarthy’s velocity is becoming elite (though taking some ground-ball rate with it) and Iwakuma’s is actually steady versus 2013 and 2014 though we know he’s well into his 30s now.

Some 2014 full-season trailers that are considered mixed-league viable: R.A. Dickey (50%), Nathan Eovaldi (51%), Kevin Gausman (51%, I don’t get the Gausman love at all), Francisco Liriano (53%), Justin Verlander (53%), A.J. Burnett (54%). It’s really hard to find good pitchers who are bad at getting ahead 1-2. Coupled with the frequency of elite pitchers at the top of this list, this tells me it’s a very good stat.

The following 2015 data is just a note and not meant to be actionable given the tiny data sample, but 100+ pitch leaders in going from 1-1 to 1-2 thus far include Hughes (91%), Scherzer, Jake Odorizzi, Adam Wainwright and Tyson Ross (all over 80%). Trailers: Zack Greinke (29%), Andrew Cashner (42%), Jake Arrieta (42%), James Shields (44%), Masahiro Tanaka (50%), deGrom (50%).

As an extra bonus, let’s look at early-season swing and miss rates, through Tuesday:

Hector Noesi 31%? I demand a recount. Kluber 26%, Trevor Bauer 25%, Chris Heston 23%, Scott Kazmir 23%, Brandon McCarthy 23%, Cole Hamels 22%, Clayton Kershaw 22%, Michael Pineda 22% (interesting because his velocity is way down again), Tyson Ross 22%.

Big names NOT missing bats: Jordan Zimmermann (hardly a shocker) 8%, Jake Arrieta 8%, Sonny Gray 9%, Alex Wood 9%, Phil Hughes 10%, Madison Bumgarner 13%, Matt Latos 13%. Again, do not make moves based on this. But if you own any of these guys in either direction, make sure you are vigilant in watching this stat through about May 15 or so, when it does become actionable.