Penn State vs. West Virginia: Final thoughts and analysis of the Nittany Lions’ opener

Penn State will open the 2024 season Saturday afternoon against West Virginia. The Nittany Lions will take on the Mountaineers in Morgantown in Week 1 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with WVU.

Kotelnicki can show creativity early

No unit will be under more scrutiny Saturday than the Penn State offense, and for good reason. The unit ran into issues last year and became stale before offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich was ultimately fired after the team’s loss to Michigan in Beaver Stadium. Andy Kotelnicki has taken his place and is tasked with taking the group to the next level in Drew Allar’s second season as the starting quarterback. He’s spoken frequently since he was hired about getting the ball to his best players and that being a key part of running good offense. That may sound simple, but it gets much harder when the defense takes away Plan A, as the Nittany Lions found out last season.

Kotelnicki brings with him the requisite creativity to not just get the ball to the team’s best players, but to do so with disguises and play design that will have the defense on its heels. That should mean running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen take another step, Tyler Warren becomes what many project him to be as an elite tight end, and the receivers show growth from last season. Saturday is the first chance he’ll have to show that against a team in West Virginia that might just be Penn State’s toughest opponent this season.

Defense must slow Greene

There won’t be many quarterbacks — if any — that Penn State faces this regular season that are as dynamic as Garrett Greene is for West Virginia. He played well in the matchup between the two teams last season, finishing with 162 yards through the air and 71 more on the ground. That proved to be a launching point for him, with his performances only getting better from there. He’s far from a prototypical pocket passer, but he does enough damage with his arm to make his high level rushing ability even more dangerous. Greene excels at getting on the move and making things happen, whether that’s with completed passes in scramble situations or long runs when the defense has its backs turned.

New Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen will surely be honed in on slowing Greene and the WVU running game, but the quarterback will inevitably make a big play or two for the Mountaineers. The goal for the Nittany Lions should be to limit that as much as possible and prevent him from getting on the move. They have the athleticism to monitor him with a linebacker like Tony Rojas or even safety Jaylen Reed, who should be lined up at the lion position as the team’s fifth defensive back. If they can take away some of the easy scramble opportunities for Greene, it will change the game drastically in Penn State’s favor.

Will the wide receivers look improved?

The question that many have been asking all offseason will take the first step toward being answered Saturday. There has been plenty of praise for Harrison Wallace III and Liam Clifford this offseason and preseason from Penn State head coach James Franklin, but they still have to perform well in games for it to mean anything. And for all of that praise, neither was a grade above the rest of the room last year, so their growth will have to be substantial to be a legitimate top option. That being said, Wallace undoubtedly has the athleticism, size and ball skills to be that player in this offense. For him, the question is more about whether he can stay healthy and put it all together.

The next tier of receivers is made up of Julian Fleming, Omari Evans and Kaden Saunders, three receivers with their own questions to answer. Fleming, like Wallace, must prove he can stay healthy. He has the most prolific career of any receiver on the roster, after spending the first four seasons of his career at Ohio State and producing the entire time he was on the field. Frankly, he should be a factor this year even if he doesn’t have the same upside as someone like Wallace. Evans must prove he can be more than a deep threat in the offense, while Saunders is dealing with “bumps and bruises” according to Franklin, and has not shown consistency in his first two seasons on campus. Those five players, when healthy, will likely make up the top of the depth chart and will all go into Saturday with something to prove.

Final predictions

Penn State 38, West Virginia 23: I buy into West Virginia being the second-best team on Penn State’s schedule, but I think this is a bad matchup for the Mountaineers. Their rushing offense is going to be where they excel on that side of the ball, and Penn State is well-equipped to slow it with a strong defensive line and safeties and linebackers that are more than willing to mix it up in that aspect. Couple that with an offense that should be much better, and you get Penn State winning comfortably after the game is close early.

MVP: Tyler Warren. All of those questions about Penn State’s pass catchers will probably be answered by a tight end when all is said and done this year. Warren is primed for a breakout season under Kotelnicki and should establish himself as one of the best in the country at the position. That should begin in Morgantown.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on the position group has seen the most improvement and development since the end of spring ball:

“I’d probably say wide receiver, but I would also say like there is a little bit at other positions that you could make the same argument. I would say wide receiver. I would say quarterback. I would say offensive line, specifically obviously with the offensive lineman that we lost to the NFL last year. I would say those three positions. I think everybody had pretty good idea who we were at tight end, who we were at running back, so I would say those three positions, and really the three positions we needed to, right? So there has been a lot of energy poured into those positions, a lot of strategy about how do we position those areas to be the most successful. So far, I think what we’ve seen in training camp, not just from myself, but really coaches on both sides of the ball, we all feel that way.”