Penn State vs. Boise State: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s CFP quarterfinal vs. Broncos

Penn State will play its second College Football Playoff game when it takes on the Boise State Broncos in the quarterfinals on 7:30 p.m. Tuesday. The Nittany Lions and Broncos will meet at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, in the Fiesta Bowl. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Broncos.

Jeanty is the ultimate test for the defense

Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty is the best running back I’ve seen play college football, and he’s going to be a handful for Penn State on Tuesday. He’s been the best offensive player in college football this season and has dominated everyone he’s faced. And that includes an Oregon team that he ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns against, on only 25 carries. Jeanty has a unique blend of strength, speed and balance that allows him to create big runs by breaking away from defenders or by breaking through them. He’s going to get his against Penn State; it’s just a matter of how much Penn State allows what he does to step up a Boise State passing attack that has thrived off the openings Jeanty creates.

The Bronco running back forces defenses to commit more players to stopping him and sets them up to get bit by passing plays. Usually that’s on play action, but sometimes defenses freeze even without faking a handoff, all because of the fear that Jeanty may get the ball. Stopping him isn’t going to happen, but not letting him create other issues will be the key to Penn State’s success.

High-scoring game doesn’t spell doom

Boise State may be the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff bracket, but it’s far from the third-best team — and that’s largely because the Bronco defense is slightly above average. It’s No. 47 in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and has taken its lumps against plenty of teams this year. The Broncos gave up 45 points to Georgia Southern in their season opener (although eight came when the game was well in hand), 37 to Oregon, and at least 20 to Utah State, Washington State, UNLV (the first of the two times the teams played), San Diego State, Nevada and San Jose State.

I feel comfortable saying Penn State should be able to light this group up, and shouldn’t fear a scenario where its offense is forced to keep up with Boise State. I have much more faith that the Nittany Lions will get crucial stops than I do that the Broncos will. So while the Nittany Lions haven’t won many offensive shootouts this season, that doesn’t mean they can’t. This should be one of Penn State’s best offensive performances this season. And that starts with quarterback Drew Allar and tight end Tyler Warren.

Allar, Warren should find success

Those two should be at the center of what Penn State does in this game. Yes, the Nittany Lion running backs — Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen — should be in for big games, but a bounce back from Allar and Warren could do more for this team in the long run. Neither player had the type of statistical performance anyone would expect in a 38-10 win over SMU (although Warren had some impressive blocks that drew a lot of attention), and both will need to produce more in the passing game. Penn State’s running game should be opponents’ priority when it comes to stopping the offense, putting the onus on the passing game to draw some of that attention away.

That’s part of why Warren’s success has been so important this season — the threat of him creating explosive plays draws eyes away from Singleton and Allen. The running backs should be able to carry the load if necessary against the Broncos, but that won’t be the case if the Nittany Lions move on to face Notre Dame or Georgia in the semifinals. Having Allar and Warren both confident heading into that type of matchup could be the difference if Penn State can make a run to the national title game.

Final predictions

Penn State 38, Boise State 28: I don’t think this is going to be a blowout like the SMU game, but I do think Penn State should come away with a victory. There’s a large enough disparity between the PSU offense and Boise State defense that the Nittany Lions should be able to keep with any monstrous performance that Jeanty puts together for the Broncos. He’ll absolutely get his, but Penn State should be able to get enough stops to win comfortably and salt the game away with a long drive late in the fourth quarter.

MVP: Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty. Win or lose, I expect Jeanty to be the star of the show. He would’ve been the Heisman Trophy winner in almost any other season and is the sole reason the Broncos are in this game. Yes, they are a good team, but they are not a great team without Jeanty. He’s the best player Penn State will face all season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes off for over 200 yards even in a loss.

The last word

Penn State head coach James Franklin on if Ashton Jeanty reminds him of any other running back:

“Yeah, I’m not sure. When you look at his stature, you start thinking about certain backs, but I don’t know if I have somebody that jumps out in my mind that he reminds me of when I’m watching him on tape. Because, really, he does a lot of things really well. He can run away from you and score from a distance; breaks a ton of tackle. His yards after contact, I think I saw or read it somewhere, like 1,300 yards of his rushing yards are after contact, which is like a ridiculous stat. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that before, but his ability to make people miss, break tackles, finish runs, is really impressive. But I don’t know if I got somebody that jumps out in my mind in terms of he reminds me of this guy. But the thing that jumps out the most to me is 1,300 yards, or whatever that statistic is, after contact is a crazy stat in college football.”