Penn State is No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Here’s what it means

Penn State came in at No. 4 in the latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings, earning it the No. 6 seed in the new projected bracket with only three weeks left in the regular season.

Here’s what it all means for the Nittany Lions as they look to make the playoff for the first time.

Penn State controls its own destiny

The Nittany Lions continue to have full control of whether they make the playoff. Their path there is simple — beat Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland to close out the regular season. The records of those three teams? The Boilermakers are 1-8, the Golden Gophers are 6-4, and the Terrapins are 4-5. Penn State will be favored in all three games and in all likelihood by multiple scores.

But there is no need for style points or massive victories. If this team wins, it’s going to be in the 12-team playoff field and have a chance to go on a run for the national title. The only question will be about whether the Nittany Lions host a game in Beaver Stadium on the way there. Winning out should secure a home game for the Nittany Lions, but there is also a small possibility they get passed up.

Probable ceiling is No. 6 seed

While a berth is highly likely, and so is a home game, Penn State’s ceiling is likely no higher than the No. 6 seed. The most probable scenario is that Oregon is one of the two teams playing for the Big Ten title. The Ducks play Wisconsin and Washington to end the year, and one win is enough to get them there. The other Big Ten title game spot will likely go to Indiana or Ohio State — whichever team wins that head-to-head matchup on Nov. 23. The Hoosiers’ only other remaining game is against lowly Purdue, while the Buckeyes play Northwestern and Michigan.

In all of the most likely outcomes, the Ducks are playing the Buckeyes or Hoosiers in the Big Ten title game, with the winner getting the No. 1 or No. 2 seed and the loser being the No. 5 seed as the highest-ranked non-champion — leaving No. 6 as the highest Penn State can get in the bracket.

Chaos will reign in November

Of course, all of that is assuming that chaos doesn’t ensue over the final three weeks of the season and, well, this is college football. There’s almost some level of mayhem in the final month of the regular season. That could mean a Penn State loss, bumping the Nittany Lions to a much lower seed or even out of the playoff. Or it could mean the OSU-Indiana winner then loses another game and PSU goes undefeated — bumping the Nittany Lions into the Big Ten title game. It could even mean Oregon drops both of its games to the Badgers and Ducks, Ohio State beats Indiana, and Penn State wins the tiebreaker over the Hoosiers to get a rematch against the Buckeyes with the conference, and likely No. 1 seed, on the line. Is any of that likely? No. Is it all on the table? Absolutely.

Here are the latest CFP rankings and projected matchups, in full.

First round

No. 5 seed Ohio State vs. No. 12 seed Boise State

No. 6 seed Penn State vs. No. 11 seed Ole Miss

No. 7 seed Indiana vs. No. 10 seed Alabama

No. 8 seed Tennessee vs. No. 9 seed Notre Dame

Byes: No. 1 seed Oregon, No. 2 seed Texas, No. 3 seed BYU, No. 4 seed Miami

College Football Playoff rankings

(Nov. 12, 2024)

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Indiana

6. BYU

7. Tennessee

8. Notre Dame

9. Miami

10. Alabama

11. Ole Miss

12. Georgia

13. Boise State

14. SMU

15. Texas A&M

16. Kansas State

17. Colorado

18. Washington State

19. Louisville

20. Clemson

21. South Carolina

22. LSU

23. Missouri

24. Army

25. Tulane