How can Penn State football beat Boise State to advance in the playoff? Here are 2 key matchups

Penn State will play its College Football Playoff quarterfinal game at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday when it takes on the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. How can the Nittany Lions defeat the Broncos and advance to the semifinal against the winner of Georgia/Notre Dame?

Here are the two key matchups to Tuesday’s game that we believe will determine the outcome:

Jon Sauber: Penn State’s secondary vs. Boise State’s pass catchers

The Nittany Lions are going to have to dedicate resources to stopping Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, which is inevitably going to put a lot of pressure on the Nittany Lion secondary to do its job. The Broncos want to get the ball to Jeanty whenever they can, but there will be plenty of occasions where they try to throw the ball to keep Penn State on its heels. When that time comes, it will be on the team’s top corners, A.J. Harris and Jalen Kimber, and its safeties, Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley, to take care of business.

Harris and Kimber have performed about as well as anyone could have reasonably expected after joining the program from Georgia and Florida, respectively, as transfers this season. The former has developed into one of the best corners in the country, and the latter has been a consistent starter for Penn State all season. In the middle, Reed has played like one of the best safeties in the country, while Wheatley has been a positive as a starter all year long. All four players have been good in coverage this season and have proven to be a high-level secondary when teams have attacked them — except when Oregon used its elite speed to create big plays.

Fortunately for the Nittany Lions, Tez Johnson is still a Duck and not a Bronco, but that doesn’t mean Boise State doesn’t have the pass catchers to do damage. The Broncos’ top receiver, Cameron Camper, joined the program from Indiana during the offseason and has been a consistent threat to opposing defenses this season. He’s caught at least four passes in nine of Boise State’s games, while tallying at least 70 yards in six of them. Campers’ 55 catches for 837 yards leads Boise State and is a part of its answer to when teams sell out to stop the running game. He’s joined by a steady tight end in Matt Lauter who has been a reliable target for quarterback Maddux Madsen with 43 catches for 523 yards and six touchdowns. While neither player is a superstar, both are valuable pieces for the Broncos because of how they complement a dominant running game.

Whoever wins the matchup on the perimeter could be the team that wins the game. And at the very least, if Penn State wins that matchup, it will be in excellent position to walk out with a victory.

Josh Moyer: Penn State’s front-seven vs. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty

Let’s not get too cute with our picks here. Jeanty is the Heisman runner-up and arguably the most electric offensive player in all of college football. He was clocked at 21.7 mph in Week 6 and, according to his school, he’s caused 143 forced missed tackles for 1,889 yards after contact just this season.

He is the roadblock standing in the way of Penn State and the College Football Playoff semifinal.

But let’s look a little beyond Jeanty’s ability — and a little more at what powerful rushing attacks have done to Penn State. The Nittany Lions have allowed more than 100 rushing yards in only five of 14 games this season, but each of those five games was decided by a single score. Granted, losing teams tend to pass so we can’t take those numbers quite at face value. But opponents that have been able to establish the running game have given DC Tom Allen fits. The Nittany Lions shine brightest when they make an offense one-dimensional.

Only three teams have rushed for more than 150 yards against Penn State — USC, Ohio State and Oregon. And that led to two losses and an overtime win. Meanwhile, the Broncos boast the nation’s No. 5 rushing attack and have run for at least 170 yards in every single contest. Something’s got to give here.

Penn State’s linebackers have found themselves out of position before, especially against better teams. And Jeanty has the versatility to bounce it outside for a big gain or keep it between the tackles for a first down, meaning Jeanty has the ability to take advantage of every Nittany Lion mistake. I’ll be surprised if Jeanty doesn’t break at least two or three long runs, but I’ll be more surprised if Penn State stops Jeanty — and still manages to lose. He’s the key.