Pascal Siakam's return to form brings Raptors front office's next move into focus

It was the elephant in the room entering this season. If the Toronto Raptors were going to overhaul the offence and put the ball in the hands of Scottie Barnes a lot more, how would it affect Pascal Siakam?

Attempts by media members to figure some of that out at Media Day practically had Siakam in self defence. First, he dispelled any notion that he’s a selfish player, then reminded people of how far he’s come as a player from the days that he’d be standing in the corner and no one cared. He also went out of his way to let everyone know that he feels super blessed and happy to be who he is today as a person.

Who could blame him? Team president Masai Ujiri, while stating that he believed in Siakam as a player, cut the figure of a man who was a long way from the person who was on the verge of tears when speaking about how proud he was of Siakam for his play in the 2020 playoffs. There were no contract extension talks, as well as indirect accusations of selfishness.

Whenever new head coach Darko Rajakovic was asked about plans for the new offence, there was plenty of talk about Barnes with little if any time made for the man who had been the face of the franchise for the past couple seasons. How would Siakam respond?

How it started

Firstly, Toronto making the transition to Barnes as the focal point this season has been bang on. The third-year forward has been magnificent on both ends through the first month of the season and handing him the keys to get a return of 19.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game has been well worth it. In terms of overall impact, advanced analytic stats like EPM and VORP have him as one of the 10 most impactful players in the league so far.

Siakam had four seasons as "The Guy" and while it’s been a phenomenal effort to develop into a great 1B option, the writing is now on the wall on whether or not he could get to that next level. The challenge laid out to him was to find a way to be his best self in a very different role.

Over the first seven games of this season, Siakam averaged 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists. Three games in particular, against Philadelphia twice and San Antonio, seemed to throw out red flags as Siakam attempted 12 field goals or fewer. He looked like a shell of himself on the offensive end but the system seemed to have no interest in prioritizing his scoring prowess to any degree. In fact, Siakam was often found on the weak-side of offensive actions and was asked to free up teammates first before maybe, just maybe, the ball would make its way to him for catch-and-shoot opportunities. Siakam was a well-crafted painting being defaced in broad daylight — or in-arena lighting, if you prefer.

While there’s been a distinctive change in process, the results have been largely the same. The Raptors rank fourth in assists per game, a far cry from 23rd last season. A half-court offence that ranked 25th last season, though, somehow became worse. A team that averaged 94 points per 100 possessions in 2022-23 averaged a second-worst 84.1 points through Nov. 7. Passing for the sake of passing and keeping the ball out of the hands of the team’s best half-court scoring option was doing Toronto no good in terms of results.

The biggest positive that emerged individually for Siakam during this period was that the reduced offensive burden revitalized his defence. Having come into the league with a strong defensive reputation and showcasing those skills almost immediately, Siakam’s play on that end of the floor seemed to have dissipated the last few seasons as his offensive responsibilities grew. It speaks to his character and commitment level that he didn’t check out defensively because of a less-than-ideal hand of cards dealt on the other end.

Re-emerging as a strong perimeter defender has also allowed Rajakovic to get the best out of Barnes defensively, where he is now operating as much more of a roamer and fire extinguisher. There are fond memories of Siakam successfully defending a still-in-his-prime John Wall back in the 2018 playoffs, and he’s found himself in a similar role again, defending guards more frequently this season and using his speed and lateral quickness to great effect.

How it’s going

“At the end of the day it’s all new for us, it’s all new for everyone, so we’re just trying to understand everything and I’m gonna continue to get better,” Siakam said of the system and his place in it. “One thing about me, I’m a fighter. That’s the only way I got here so I’m going to keep fighting and the people that know me, they know that.”

Fight is exactly what he’s done.

Most now recognize the road game against the Dallas Mavericks on Nov. 8 as the one where Siakam got his groove back. The Raptors made him a focal point of the offence and he obliged by incessantly punishing smaller defenders in the post and finishing over and around them on his way to 31 points.

Over the last nine games including that one, Siakam is averaging 23.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.7 assists while shooting 65.1% on twos. He has hit the 30-point mark three times and attempted at least 16 shots in six games. The team’s half-court offence has improved by over six points post-Nov. 7 to 91.6 points per 100 possessions. That’s still five points below league-average, but is a much-needed step in the right direction. The team is 5-4 during that time but has now won three of four.

Among players with at least 25 post-ups thus far, Siakam is fifth in the league in post-up efficiency at 1.17 points per possession, better than Nikola Jokic (1.13) and Joel Embiid (1.02). As the most recent game against Chicago showed, he’s picking his spots beautifully between going to work against single coverage and finding teammates when doubled.

He continues to be an absolute monster in transition, producing 1.30 points per possession. That ranks sixth in the league among players with at least 45 transition possessions this season and more efficient than LeBron James (1.23) as well as Anthony Edwards (1.25). Siakam is now shooting 58.8% on twos for the season, which would be his highest mark since the 2018-19 championship season. He has the highest on/off differential on the team at plus-20.7, per Cleaning the Glass.

On Nov. 14, Siakam created an Instagram post with the caption, “Play the hand you’re dealt like it’s the one you’ve always wanted.”

Where to go from here

Relying on Siakam as an offensive hub and even the offensive hub when the matchups dictate it has been a much-needed course correction. As long as he and Barnes are on the same team, the onus is on Rajakovic to get the best out of his two best players. Siakam has taken the changes to the team on the chin and has responded in brilliant fashion after an initial bedding-in process. At the same time, an overall record of 8-8 with the degree of disparity between the highs and lows that’s existed so far isn’t exactly inspiring.

The awkward fit questions aren’t due to the pairing of Barnes and Siakam, but rather the trio of Barnes, Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl. After providing a plus-14.1 on/off differential since being acquired at the trade deadline last season, Poeltl is a neutral plus-0.3 so far this season and has seen just 25.7 minutes per game despite the absence of Christian Koloko.

Toronto’s trend of starting first quarters and even first halves terribly has become a major concern. The trio of Barnes, Siakam, and Poeltl makes for a clunky spacing fit, so Toronto’s front office should be asking whether Poeltl is the right long-term fit at centre alongside Barnes and Siakam just as much as they ask whether Siakam fits Barnes’ timeline on what would presumably be a significant — if not max — extension.

If Siakam had continued to be an afterthought in the offence, a trade would have been inevitable. His productivity since has reiterated the value of having a two-time All-NBAer on the roster. It shows that having really talented players around Barnes to alleviate some of the pressure on him also matters.

Make the wrong deal or lose an All-Star for no return and the Raptors could be looking at a situation not too dissimilar to what the Mavericks have been facing in trying to appease Luka Doncic’s appetite to succeed. The ticks of the clock there would have reached deafening levels after the departure of Jalen Brunson, and it led to a desperate swing-for-the-fences move in trading for Kyrie Irving. Remember that Barnes has called Siakam his favourite player more than once now, so continuing down this path with the right roster adjustments is worth considering.

What’s becoming increasingly clear is that the front office has to either improve the roster construction to bring more shooting around the trio of Barnes, Siakam, and OG Anunoby, or definitively change course to build with Barnes and Anunoby. At 26, Anunoby looks like the best defender in the league and a perfect fit alongside Barnes.

Not offering an extension in the offseason may have rubbed Siakam the wrong way and the front office may not feel as strongly about their chances of re-signing him, especially after the way things played out with Fred VanVleet. The Raptors simply can’t afford to have another player walk out the door with no return.

In that case, it would be about saying yes to the right deal, the way the Indiana Pacers did in trading All-Star Domantas Sabonis for what was then a rising young star and now superstar in Tyrese Haliburton. Oklahoma City’s haul that included Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Paul George would serve as another reminder of a home run deal that better aligns with the timeline. Remember, Ujiri has also said he prefers to make big deals in the offseason rather than the trade deadline.

There’s less than three months to find out which way the Raptors will lean, and Siakam continuing to soldier on no matter which way the dice have rolled is a timely reminder that the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

Just as passing for the sake of passing and improperly valuing players on the court didn’t work, neither will making a deal for the sake of it off the court. The Raptors have taken too many pitches and only a home run will suffice now.