Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill should be the National League Rookie of the Year

We’re inching closer to award season, and it’s looking like the most interesting of all the major awards will wind up being National League Rookie of the Year. Or the Paul Skenes Award, as many believed it would be when the Pirates right-hander was mowing down hitters during the middle of the season. But as we sit on the brink of September, it’s 21-year-old center fielder Jackson Merrill who has opened eyes and potentially earned himself the honors.

Merrill came into the season as a complete unknown and, honestly, a question mark. Yes, the former first-round draft pick was talented, toolsy and confident, and he earned his way onto the Padres’ Opening Day roster. But after he converted from shortstop to center field full-time, there was going to be a learning curve for the team’s top prospect to navigate playing in the big leagues while learning a new position on the fly.

Well, not only has the Padres rookie looked comfortable during his first big-league season but he’s also thriving and has been the driving force behind the Padres’ turnaround and surge up the standings in the season's second half.

But when it comes to winning Rookie of the Year, we first have to look at the numbers. And the numbers say that Merrill has been one of the best players in baseball this season. He’s slashing .291/.324/.494 with 22 doubles, six triples, 20 homers, 76 RBI and 15 stolen bases. He’s leading all rookies with a 4.1 fWAR and was named an NL All-Star in his first MLB season.

And it’s not just that Merrill has played well. He has continued to get better as the season has gone on. Many times, rookies hit a wall during their first season in the big leagues, but Merrill has continued to produce through the summer. Since June 12, he’s slashing .304/.332/.608 with 16 of his 20 homers coming in the past 10 weeks.

The other side of winning an award is the narrative, the X-factor, the intangibles — whatever word you want to use to describe attributes beyond a player’s numbers. For Merrill, that has been his ability to step up in big moments. He has six game-tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later this season, tied with Hall of Famer Frank Robinson for the most by a player 21 or younger.

Merrill’s ability to rise to the occasion sets him apart from other young players. He’s thriving in the big moments, and it’s easy to see that he welcomes them. Right now, there’s no player San Diego wants at the plate in a big spot more than the young star.

The Padres’ offense as a whole has made a significant jump in production since Merrill has taken his game to another level. And even more than the increase in runs scored, San Diego’s postseason chances have taken a huge jump during the scorching stretch from the rookie.

In June, the Padres seemed like a team destined to fall by the playoff wayside, with their chances of reaching the postseason feeling remote. But since the All-Star break, the Padres have the second-best record in MLB, going 26-11, and their offense is fourth in runs scored in that span.

Have the Padres improved with a revamped bullpen, a roster growing healthier and more production from throughout their lineup? Absolutely. But you can’t ignore the catalyst that Merrill has been and the boost he has provided in San Diego’s turnaround.

Skenes has been dominant and as good as advertised during his first season with the Pirates, who are last place in the NL Central and well out of playoff contention. But Merrill has not only been playing well; he has also been a driving force in getting his team to the postseason, and that’s the difference. Jackson Merrill should be the NL Rookie of the Year.