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Over/Under: How low will CarGo go?

CarGo has had plenty of reasons to hang his head this season (Getty)
CarGo has had plenty of reasons to hang his head this season (Getty)

Over a four-year span ('10-'13), you could make a pretty good argument that there wasn't a better fantasy player than Carlos Gonzalez. But coming off a knee injury in '14, CarGo has barely been able to return top 100 fantasy outfielder value to this point. Can CarGo turn back the clock and close out the season strong - O/U top 40 final season OF ranking?

Brandon – UNDER. Staying on the field is my biggest concern with CarGo - he's played more than 135 games just once in his career, and he's averaged just 110 in his past four seasons. But, assuming his surgically-repaired knee holds, I'd expect him to heat up with the summer. He's still playing home games in the friendliest home park in the league. And he's actually still in the middle of his prime (age 29). This was arguably the best player in roto baseball from '10-'13. I'd bet on that guy being able to finish top 40 among OFs just two seasons later - and, hey, he's been a top 30 OF since mid-May, so at least he's trending in the right direction.

Scott –  OVER, OVER, OVER. I do not want what I haven't got. The Gonzalez problem used to be the looming injury risk - now he's not even playing well when on the field. Look at that skyrocketing ground-ball rate, the vanishing steals. There are diminished skills here.

Andy – I don't actually have any shares of Gonzalez, so I haven't been burned by this lousy start. Perhaps this fact makes me more willing to believe that he's not completely washed up, at 29. I'll take the UNDER here, just slightly. The underlying numbers aren't all bad. Gonzalez's walk rate is up, the K rate is down, and he's hitting plenty of line-drives (22.2 LD%). I'll buy, if you're ready for a clean break.

Now tied for MLB home run lead, it's time to take Bryce Harper's pulse again. Having never hit more than 22 home runs in a season, can Harper double his career high in '15 - O/U 25.5 ROS home runs?

Dalton – OVER. This is probably the wrong side to back considering that's basicaly a 40-homer pace over a season, but I'm all in on Harper and think he can do it. Of course, health will be a big factor here.

Andy – OVER. Health is the ongoing concern for Harper, not raw power. If he can stay clear of the DL, he may well hit 30 ROS bombs. We're not simply talking about a guy on a hot streak; this is a kid with superstar-level skills, finally producing at a rate that justifies the hype.

Scott – I have to go UNDER. He's never been at this HR/FB level before, obviously, and at some point teams might simply decide it's better to take chances with the rest of the lineup. And Harper's all-out style could lead to injuries at some point. It's a perfect time to test the trade market and see if someone is willing to make you an offer you can't refuse. Harper isn't just your favorite player, he's the favorite of many people.

At his current pace, Justin Upton would finish right around a .300 batting average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 Runs and 30 steals - which, if any, of those projected marks, do you expect Upton to be able to reach?

Brandon – HR and RBI are the two numbers that he's projected to comfortably hit the Over on among these O/U targets at the moment, and those are the only two categories I'd feel okay with entertaining the Over on here. But, ultimately, I think he'll fall short in HRs, a cat that has proven in the past to be fickle for Upton. In fact, he's hit just a combined 11 HRs in June/July over the past three seasons. I'll say he just barely goes OVER in RBI and barely UNDER in HR, as well the other categories.

Scott –  I can't bet on the average, that doesn't fit his profile at all. With the steals, it's just a matter of wanting to do it, but I suspect as the dog days of August kick in, he'll be a little less interested there. And not to be a killjoy, but I have Upton scoring about 90-95 runs. He's still a no-brainer OF1, however, and it stings to have him on zero of my teams.

Andy – I'll give him 30 homers and 100 RBIs, but I think he'll fall just short in runs, and way short in average and steals. Justin is a career .275 hitter who's only touched .300 once, and he's never swiped more than 21 bags in any full season. For him to reach 100 runs, San Diego's bottom-of-the-order hitters would have to continue driving him in, and, well ... let's just say I'm not a big fan of those bats.

Considered a not-so-distant-future 20/20 candidate by many, Rusney Castillo has done little to validate that sentiment after his much anticipated call-up in late May. With roughly four months of the season left to play, can he at least be a 10/10 guy in his rookie campaign - O/U final '15 line of 9.5 home runs and 9.5 steals?

Scott –  I drove a lot of the optimism, but he looks lost right now. I'll go OVER the steals, UNDER on the pop.

Andy – OVER. As of this writing, he's played nine games at the major league level this season. It's too soon to scrap our pre-callup projections. Heck, he could reach these very modest totals without even playing well.

Dalton – OVER. He's been a big disappointment, but it's still a very small sample with plenty of time for Castillo to get it together.

Despite a low K/9 rate, St. Louis' Michael Wacha has managed to return top 11 fantasy starter numbers to this point. Can the Cardinal hurler continue to find pitch-to-contact success the rest of the way - O/U 24.5 final ranking among SPs? Also, rank these Cardinals starters for the rest of the season - Wacha, Carlos Martinez, who is riding a 21 IP scoreless streak, John Lackey and Lance Lynn

Brandon –  OVER. It's tough to finish as a top 25 starter without averaging at least 8 K/9. It means you have to be nails in the ratio categories while also logging a heavy amount of wins. Wacha is actually averaging under 6 K/9, and despite excellent ratios, the luck factors, to this point, have shown heavy favoritism to Wacha. I expect regression will push Wacha into a late 20s/early 30s finish among SPs when all is said and done. My Cardinals starter ROS order: 1) Martinez, 2) Wacha, 3) Lynn, 4) Lackey

Andy – UNDER. I am getting out of the business of betting against Cardinals starters. Rest of year, give me 1) Wacha, 2) Martinez, 3) Lynn and 4) Lackey. For the record, I'm not down on any of those guys; I'd happily own any or all.

Dalton – OVER. Wacha will likely improve his peripherals moving forward, but his BABIP (.228) ranks among the five-lowest among starting pitchers, which is combined with a highly unimpressive 9.6 K-BB%. It's hard not to expect major regression from here on out. Having said that, 1) Wacha 2) Lynn 3) Martinez 4) Lackey

George Springer, Joc Pederson and Steven Souza are budding young power/speed stars, admittedly with contact issues. But despite low batting averages, each player sits on a healthy combined HR+SB total currently in the 16-18 range. Rank these players in terms of expected final HR+SB tallies (and please provide their projected HRs and SBs)

Brandon –  1) Springer (24/33) 2.) Pederson (33/13) 3) Souza (24/19)

Andy – 1) Pederson (32/14), 2) Springer (21/25), 3) Souza (22/18). I actually gave Pederson and Springer the same combined HR/SB total, but I'm giving Pederson the edge here based on total home run distance. Just look at these bombs. Mercy.

Dalton – 1) Springer (25/30) 2) Pederson (33/15) 3) Souza (25/22).

Jacob deGrom has posted ace-level numbers through his first 211.1 MLB innings - 15 wins, 215 strikeouts, 2.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Can he close out '15 as a true fantasy No. 1 starter - O/U 11.5 final ranking among SPs?

Brandon –   UNDER. Put me down as a buyer. There's nothing in his peripherals to suggest what he's doing is a mirage. He throws mid-90s and has control of four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) that have all netted positive results over the course of his young career.

Dalton – UNDER. This is a tough rank to reach, but there's also no reason to doubt deGrom at this point. His 20.8 K-BB% and 11.3 SwStr% are both elite, so he's the real deal.

Scott –  OVER, mainly because he's going to lose a couple of turns through the silly six-man rotation. I'd also like to see him take a step forward on the road (3.86 career ERA), though his Citi Field dominance has made up for it. The Monday wipeout in San Diego was a nice start.

Jason Hammel has logged just over 175 IP for the Cubs since the start of '14 season, posting a 2.92 ERA in the process - including 2.82 ERA this season. Can Hammel keep up a similar pace the rest of the way - O/U 3.33 ROS ERA? And do you prefer Hammel or fellow Cub Jon Lester for the remainder of the '15 campaign?

Brandon – OVER. Hammel has been great this season, but I'm not sure a guy with a career 2.88 BB/9 (and 2.25 last year) can keep up his current 0.9 BB/9 rate (4th-best in the league). As my colleague Michael Salfino will tell you, it takes longer for in-season walk rates to normalize than K rates. With an expected regression in his walk rate, in addition to the fact that Wrigley can be a tough place to pitch in the summer, I say Hammel puts up a ROS ERA just north of this number - still makes him a nice guy to have in your rotation. Oh, and I'll take Lester, he of the 2.11 ERA and K/IP rate over his past seven starts, slightly over Hammel.

Dalton – UNDER. Speaking of the real deal, Hammel is just as equally so as deGrom if not more. He has a ridiculous 69:7 K:BB ratio over 67.0 innings, with a 0.90 WHIP, and he's had to pitch on the road in four of his last five starts. I prefer Hammel over Lester over the rest of the season.

Scott –   UNDER, easy under. At this point, I'd follow pitching coach Chris Bosio into a burning building. And give me Hammel over Lester; the National League seems prepared to make Lester pay for his pickoff yips, something the AL never did, for some inexplicable reason.

Two consensus top 40 draft picks - Yasiel Puig and Anthony Rendon - are expected to come off the the DL in the next week or so. If you were drafting today, which player would you choose (and please include a quick final season BA/HR/SB line for each)?

Scott – They both make me nervous, but give me RENDON because he covers two infield positions (fills are generally easier in the outfield). AR: .293-13-8, YP: .282-12-1.

Andy –  I'll take Puig (.288-14-6) over Rendon (.290-9-7), but I'm not filled with confidence in either case, really. Puig's position is an easier fill from the FA pool, if he returns to the DL.

Dalton – I prefer Puig (.300/12/7) over Rendon (.280/10/5).

Robinson Cano is among the league leaders in hitting into double plays, has a batting average with RISP at the Mendoza Line and is averaging a HR per month. How high would you be willing to select him if you were drafting today - O/U pick No. 49.5?

Brandon – OVER. Perhaps, as an M's fan, my view is too jaded by the rage that consumes me every time I see Cano fail in a crucial situation (which is starting to feel like a nightly occurence). But, like I said, I do watch him on a daily basis and, when it comes to my fantasy team, I want no part of what I'm seeing.

Scott –  OVER. Cano's a ground-ball machine these days, and we know he's not going to run much. You pray he can get back to what he did in 2014, and maybe that's out the window, too. I got 99 problems, but Cano ain't one.

Dalton – OVER. I usually like to be patient, but I wouldn't pull the trigger on Cano as a top-50 pick right now. He was the No. 34 ranked player last year and is approaching 33 years old as a middle infielder. No thanks.